Bellator 224 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

0 Comments

Bellator 224 starts in around 3 hours time and I believe I’ve found a rock solid bet for it.

Don’t forget that Live Betting for Bellator 224 starts at 2am UK time.

Fight Betting Tip Pick
Julia Budd vs Olga Rubin No bet Rubin to win
Chidi Njokuani vs Rafael Carvalho 3 units on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds at odds of 1.63 | -159 | 63/100 Carvalho to win
Kristina Williams vs Juliana Velasquez No bet Velasquez to win
Ed Ruth vs Kiichi Kunimoto No bet Ruth to win

Chidi Njokuani vs Rafael Carvalho Betting Tip and Prediction

We are 20-8 [Wins-Losses] on Over 1.5 rounds bets over the last 5 years for an excellent win rate of 72%. These kinds of bets have been an absolute Money Train for us in the past, and after a poor run of results in June, I am hoping that this bet can set us up for a big winning month in July.

If you’ve ever seen Chidi Njokuani or Rafael Carvalho fight, you’ll know exactly why I am recommending a bet on this fight to last longer than 1.5 rounds. Win or lose this is one of my favorite bets in a long time because both guys have such a passive fighting style. This is a great bet. I love it.

This fight will most likely be a close, awkward, tentative split decision type fight, that cruises past the 7.5-minute mark, which we need in order to win this bet.

I believe that the Bookies have wiki capped this fight when setting the odds on the over because you can’t ignore the fact that both these guys do have a bunch of recent fights that have ended quite quickly. This is predominantly because both guys are at such a low level on the ground. If you take them down, they do tend to struggle badly. That’s the main reason why this is such a great bet…

Styles make fights and while both guys have a bunch of fights recently that have ended up lasting less than 7.5 minutes due to the styles of their opponents, the way they both matchup here suggests that this fight is very likely to go the distance.

Both Carvalho and Njokuani are primarily strikers and very weak on the ground so they’ll both want to keep the fight standing.

In a standup fight, both guys are very technical, but they’re also quite passive. They both only throw a low volume of strikes per round, and they’re both happy to run the clock down battling for position in the clinch.

It’s also worth noting that neither guy is particularly dangerous standing. Sure they both have a few wins by KO on their record, but they’re both so technical that it won’t be easy for either guy to land a kill shot. Neither guy likes to commit either, they’re both very reactive.

This fight likely ends up being a close, awkward, tentative fight that ends in a split decision.

The over on this fight should have been set at 2.5 rounds instead of 1.5 rounds because of how both guys matchup stylistically. Obviously, anything can happen in MMA and someone might get knocked out or choked out in 10 seconds, but there’s a lot of value here. Win or lose this is an absolutely excellent bet and one of my favorite bets in a long time. This bet feels like stealing. It doesn’t automatically mean it’ll win, but the bookies have screwed up here bad…

Reasons for betting on the over 1.5 rounds

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both Njokuani and Carvalho have passive, reactive styles. This means they’re often involved in close fights that go the distance.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Njokuani and Carvalho both throw a low volume of strikes per round.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both Carvalho and Njokuani like to spend a lot of time battling for position in the clinch. This should help run the clock down. [/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both guys have great striking defense.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both guys are very technical. It will not be easy for either of them to land anything big.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]Both guys lack urgency.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]It takes a while for both guys to find their range and settle into a rhythm.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]7 of Njokuani’s last 10 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]4 of Carvalho’s last 7 fights have lasted longer than 1.5 rounds.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-check” icon_color=”#679f42″]The way these guys matchup stylistically makes it very likely that this fight goes the distance.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

Risk Factors with betting on over 1.5 rounds

[ultimate_icon_list icon_size=”18″][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Rafael Carvalho hits very hard.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Both guys are very low level on the ground.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][ultimate_icon_list_item icon=”Defaults-exclamation-triangle warning” icon_color=”#ea5e50″]Both guys have quit when they’ve been put in bad positions in the past.[/ultimate_icon_list_item][/ultimate_icon_list]

My Betting Tip

Over 1.5 rounds

Recommended Stake

3 Units

[3% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.63
Moneyline = -159
Fractional = 63/100

61%

Implied Probability

What is implied probability?

The bookies believe that this fight has a 61% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on their current odds.

70%

Our Probability

How do you calculate your probabilities?

I believe that this fight has a 70% chance of lasting longer than 1.5 rounds based on my extensive research and analysis.

I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

Leave a Reply