Bellator 233 is a card flying under the radar, but I believe I have found at least one strong position for us to put our money. We’ve made a solid profit betting on Bellator so far in 2019. Let’s hope we can put more money in the bank by kicking off this weekend with a solid win on Friday night.
Don’t forget that if you are an Elite Member, I will be offering Live Betting for Bellator 233. It starts at 2am UK time.
|Fight||Betting Tip||The bet with the best risk to reward ratio|
|Costello Van Steenis vs John Salter||No bet||Salter to win|
|Andrew Kapel vs Muhammad Lawal||No bet||Lawal to win|
|Arlene Blencowe vs Leslie Smith||1 unit on Arlene Blencowe to win at odds of 2.20 | +120 | 6/5||Blencowe to win|
|Azunna Anyanwu vs Tyrell Fortune||No bet||Fortune to win|
Arlene Blencowe vs Leslie Smith Betting Tip and Prediction
I really wanted to find rock-solid bets for this weekend to give us a good chance of building on our profits from UFC 244, but all I keep finding is decent, high risk, calculated gambles. This is a bit annoying, but just like a game of Poker, you can’t determine what cards you’re going to get dealt. At the end of the day, a strong position is still a strong position even though some bets carry a lot more risk than others.
As ever, I want to remind you that this is a high-risk bet, so if you struggle to deal with losing, you might want to avoid tailing this.
Leslie Smith was the 1st name that jumped out at me as a potential bet when I started researching Bellator 233, but I quickly discovered that the odds are the wrong way round in this matchup. Based on past performances, there’s no way that Blencowe should be the underdog here.
Blencowe’s current average odds of around 2.20 | +120 | 6/5 carry an implied probability of 45%, which is way off based on how both girls have performed in the past. At worst, this is a 50 / 50 fight, but I personally cap Blencowe in the 55% to 60% range.
Leslie Smith is a formidable opponent for anyone in Bellator’s 145 pound Women’s division because she’s extremely tough, she has cardio for days, and she fights at a relentless pace.
Smith’s toughness and relentless style of fighting is always going to cause her opponents problems, but this style is also deeply flawed, and Blencowe has the technical ability to expose Smith’s weaknesses.
Smith’s first major weakness is that she is incredibly predictable. Her strategy in every fight is the same. She marches forward, spamming the same hook combos in the hope that her opponent will get tired and wilt under her pressure. If her opponent doesn’t wilt, she’s in big trouble because she has no plan B. She can’t switch things up. This makes her easy to gameplan for her. Blencowe will know exactly what to expect on Friday night.
Smith also has really bad takedown defense and a low-level ground game. She’s very weak off her back. Blencowe is primarily a striker, but she does have decent body lock takedowns and a heavy top game. Threatening body lock takedowns and gaining some top control is going to be a great strategy for Blencowe to break Smith’s momentum and slow down that forward pressure. Let’s hope she uses this tactic to put her stamp on rounds.
Smith’s biggest weakness is her poor striking defense. She marches forward, blocking punches with her face and takes tons of damage. This strategy is often good enough to win fights because her relentless pressure wears on her opponents, but this fight is taking place at 145 pounds, and Blencowe hits very hard. She has legit 1 shot KO power, and Smith can’t afford to take too many clean right hands from her.
Arlene Blencowe is a heavy-handed counter striker who wants her opponents to come forward so that she can let her dangerous combinations fly. Smith’s style should play right into her hands. Blencowe has fast hands, decent technique, and big power in her right hand.
Leslie Smith’s fights are always going to be close because her high volume, high-pressure style of fighting, but from a technical point of view, Blencowe is better everywhere. When we look at how fights are supposed to be judged in 2019, big moments and damage inflicted are supposed to be two of the major scoring criteria. Blencowe has the offensive wrestling to take Smith down, the power in her hands to drop her, and the combinations to inflict significant damage. Blencowe has a lot of ways to win this fight.
Arlene Blencowe isn’t a safe bet or a rock-solid bet tonight, but her current odds of 2.20 | +120 | 6/5 command an implied probability of just 45%. There’s definite value here. She should be the favorite.
Reasons for betting on Arlene Blencowe
Risk Factors with betting on Arlene Blencowe
My Betting Tip
Arlene Blencowe to win
[1% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 2.20
Moneyline = +120
Fractional = 6/5
The bookies believe that Arlene Blencowe has a 45% chance of beating Leslie Smith based on their current odds.