Bellator 237 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

First of all, I want to say a big thank you to everyone that joined me for the Bellator 237 Livestream research session. Together we spent 7 hours researching Bellator 237 and eventually came up with a decent bet that I feel everyone watching agreed was good value.

I am having a lot of fun researching these smaller promotions with you guys, and I hope that you are also enjoying them. I am going to do another Live research stream in the upcoming days for the PFL event on New Year’s Eve. I hope to see you there. I’ll be sure to put out a Telegram message when I am about to go Live.

If you are an Elite Member, don’t forget that we will also be Live Betting Bellator 237. Live Betting starts at 3 am Sunday morning UK time.

Fight Betting Tip The bet with the best risk to reward ratio
Quinton “Rampage” Jackson vs Fedor Emelianenko No bet Rampage to win
Michael Chandler vs Sidney Outlaw No bet Chandler to win
Keita Nakamura vs Lorenz Larkin No bet Larkin to win
Kana Watanabe vs Ilara Joanne 1 unit on Ilara Joanne to win at odds of 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 Joanne to win
Daron Cruickshank vs Goiti Yamauchi No bet Yamauchi to win
Michael Page vs Shinsho Anzai No bet Page to win

Kana Watanabe vs Ilara Joanne Betting Tip and Prediction

Everyone watching today’s Livestream research session for Bellator 237 was in agreement that Ilara Joanne to beat Kana Watanabe is a great value bet with some members even capping her as high as having a 65% chance of winning. This would be a great margin over the bookies as her current odds of around 2.00 | +100 | 1/1 command an Implied Probability of just 50%.

Joanne is young and inexperienced, so she’s never going to be a safe bet, but ultimately this is a long term game. Our goal is to consistently put our money in strong positions over a long period of time, and I am 100% sure that Joanne is a strong position to put our money. Based on past performances, you have to give her more than a 50% chance of beating Watanabe, which means that it doesn’t really matter whether she wins or loses. You’re getting good value here and putting your money in a strong position. It is, however, worth noting that this is a high-risk bet, so if you struggle to deal with losing, you might want to sit this one out.

Based on past performances, it’s possible that Joanne is better than Watanabe in every single aspect of MMA. She definitely has a huge advantage when it comes to striking, and she might be a better grappler too.

Watanabe has a base in Judo, and she’s dangerous from top position, but all her takedowns come from Judo throws, and she’s not particularly effective with these techniques. In the footage we watched of Joanne, we saw that she has excellent balance, a strong core, and decent takedown defense from the clinch position. We also saw that she has decent wrestling and a heavy top game. This is no surprise considering the fact that she trains with Olympic Gold Medallist and two-division UFC Champion, Henry Cejudo! Here is a picture of her training with some of her teammates, who include the Pitbull Brothers, Kelvin Gastelum, Henry Cejudo, and award-winning MMA coach, Eric Albarracin.

Watanabe has absolutely no striking at all. She poses no threats to her opponents offensively, and she can’t block a punch. She is a sitting duck to being KO’d. Joanne has decent striking technique, fast hands, and hits hard for a Flyweight. There is a very good chance that Joanne KOs Watanabe in this fight. If the fight stays standing, Joanne will dominate. It won’t even be close. She will outclass Watanabe and inflict significant damage. Watanabe is wide open to being knocked out.

The fight gets a little more complicated to call when it comes to grappling because Watanabe has a base in Judo, and she’s nasty from top position, but her takedowns are not that effective, and Joanne is a reasonably strong wrestler. It’s tough to get a strong read on how these girls matchup when it comes to grappling because there’s only limited footage available, but from what I have seen, I would say that Joanne is the more skilled grappler. She certainly has a better understanding of position in MMA grappling, and her top game is much heavier. I’d also say that her takedowns and offensive wrestling are much better than Watanabe’s.

Joanne is a fighter who is clearly making big improvements from fight to fight, while Watanabe trains at a small gym in Japan. She is unlikely to have improved that much from her past fights, compared to Joanne, who is making big leaps in between fights.

To find value in Joanne, we’ve only got to cap her at 55% to 60%, and in my opinion, it is absolutely reasonable to do that based on past performances. She’s not a safe bet because there are some unanswered questions surrounding both girls. There are also X-Factors such as the fact Joanne tends to slow down as the fight progresses, Watanabe has home advantage on her side and also the fact that Joanne will likely have had to make a 20-hour flight to get to Japan. It is, however, important to remember that there are risk factors with every bet, and Joanne absolutely has a better than 50% chance of beating Watanabe. Win or lose we’re getting a decent amount of value here. There’s no doubt that this is a strong position for us to put our money.

Reasons for betting on Ilara Joanne

  • It’s possible that Joanne has an advantage over Watanabe in every single aspect of MMA.
  • Joanne is lightyears ahead of Watanabe when it comes to striking.
  • Watanabe has no striking defense. She is too slow to react to shots coming. She is wide open to being KO’d. She will take a lot of damage in her fights if she can’t get her opponents to the ground.
  • Joanne has fast hands, good combinations and she hits hard for a Flyweight.
  • Joanne has decent wrestling and a heavy top game.
  • Joanne has pretty good takedown defense.
  • Joanne understands the importance of position. She always completes takedowns into side control or half guard. She also favours position over submission.
  • Joanne trains with Kelvin Gastelum, the Pitbull Brothers and Henry Cejudo under Eric Albarracin. She is making HUGE improvements from fight to fight.
  • Joanne has well timed reactive double leg takedowns and strong body lock takedowns.
  • Joanne has a small, compact frame which will make it more difficult for Watanabe to catch her in Judo throws.
  • Watanabe needs to get to the clinch in order to take Joanne down with her Judo throws. This won’t be easy because Watanabe stands very stiff and rigid. She doesn’t have the footwork or striking to setup the takedown entries.
  • Joanne has decent footwork and she’s fast. It won’t be easy for Watanabe to tie her up.

Risk Factors with betting on Ilara Joanne

  • Watanabe has decent Judo and she’s nasty from top position.
  • Watanabe has home advantage.
  • Joanne’s cardio is questionable. She definitely slows down as the fight progresses.
  • Joanne will be battling major jet lag for this flight. Her flight from California to Japan will take around 20 hours.
  • Joanne is still very young and inexperienced. Fighters like this are more likely to make critical mistakes.

My Betting Tip

Ilara Joanne to win

Recommended Stake

1 Unit

[1% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 2.00
Moneyline = +100
Fractional = 1/1

50%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Ilara Joanne has a 50% chance of beating Kana Watanabe based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Ilara Joanne has a 60% chance of beating Kana Watanabe based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

5 Comments

Leave a Reply