An exciting Welterweight fight takes place on Friday in ONE Championships as Ben Askren defends his Welterweight title against Luis Santos. I’ve got one betting tip for this event and I’m hoping it’ll help us to kick off a big weekend of MMA betting with a profit. Just remember to place your bets as soon as possible, because this event starts late Friday morning in Europe and early Friday morning in the United States…
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BEN ASKREN vs LUIS SANTOS
Ben Askren and Luis Santos are two of the best Welterweights currently competing outside of the UFC. Both guys have put together impressive career MMA records of 14-0 [Askren] and 61-9 [Santos], but these records largely consist of wins against very low level opponents. This fight will undoubtedly be the toughest test that either guy has ever faced and I believe that this fight could go either way. The odds have opened up with Ben Askren as a huge favourite, but I see this fight being much closer 50 / 50.
Many people will have heard of Ben Askren because of his public disputes with Dana White, whilst Luis Santos is widely unknown. I believe that Askren’s higher profile as a fighter has had a huge influence on the betting odds for this fight and I don’t see any reason why he should be this big of a favourite over Luis Santos. I believe that this is another example of how hype can have a massive influence on the betting odds.
Before I give you my reasons for betting on Luis Santos to win. I’d like you to take a look at some recent fights from both guys…
BEN ASKREN
LUIS SANTOS
As you can see, Ben Askren is a one dimensional wrestler with strong takedowns, whilst Santos is a lot more well rounded and has the ability to finish the fight from any position.
There’s a lot of hype behind Ben Askren right now, but he’s never fought a guy who can defend takedowns, he’s never fought a guy who’s strong in the clinch and he’s never fought a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Santos has the skills to cause Askren problems on the ground and Askren is at risk of being knocked out every single second that this fight stays standing.
Santos trains at American Top Team and seems to have solid MMA wrestling. He also possesses good scrambles, he’s dangerous in the clinch and he has a Black Belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu. Askren might look like a strong wrestler, but it’s easy to look like a strong wrestler against journeyman fighters from Japan, Kazakhstan and France. Luis Santos has the skills to make Askren work for takedowns and the BJJ to create openings and put Askren in danger if this fight goes to the ground.
If you’ve watched the videos of Santos above, you’ll notice that he has incredibly good timing with his powerful kicks and knees. This is a huge advantage in this fight because most of Askren’s takedown attempts come from him shooting from the outside. This leaves Askren wide open to getting knocked out with a knee or kick everytime he tries to close the distance.
It’s also worth noting that soccer kicks and knees to the head of a grounded opponent are perfectly legal in ONE Championships. This makes shooting in for takedowns very dangerous against a guy like Luis Santos. If Askren shoots in for a takedown and ends up on his knees as Santos scrambles out of harms way, Santos can rush back in and soccer kick Askren to the head. We’ve seen countless fights end like this in ONE Championship and I believe that these rules are the main reason why we don’t see many wrestlers competing in this promotion.
If this fight stays standing it’s going to be very a long night for Ben Askren. Askren’s striking is simply too slow and too awkward to stand a chance against a guy like Luis Santos.
Luis Santos fights out of the Southpaw stance, he’s dangerous from every position and he’s great at circling away from danger before rushing back in and punishing his opponents. I don’t know if he can keep this fight standing, but I do know that he’s extremely dangerous from every position and Askren has never fought against a guy anywhere close to his level.
The odds are way out of whack on this fight and I believe that Luis Santos has a great chance of beating Ben Askren…
The best odds on this fight can be found at Unibet.
MY BETTING TIP: 1.5 Units [1.5% of your bankroll] on Luis Santos to win at odds of 6.00 | +500 | 5/1
