If you’ve been reading my betting tips for a while, you’ll know that I don’t have the best record when it comes to betting on Bellator. I don’t know why this is, because I research Bellator events in exactly the same way as I research every other event. But for some reason I just always seem to get screwed when I bet on Bellator.
I normally spend a good 3-4 hours researching the average Bellator event and prior to the event I always feel very confident that we’re going to win every bet. Then, for no reason at all, every single fighter that we bet on proceeds to fight like a complete and utter jackass and they look absolutely nothing like they did in the previous footage that I watched.
Today is Friday the 13th and whilst many people may feel extra nervous about engaging in anything that is dependent on luck, I really couldn’t care less about some stupid superstition because I feel just as confident we’re going to make money on this event as I normally do.
I would also like to apologise that the betting tips for this event are late. Over the last couple of days, the odds on both of my picks for Bellator 133 have been gradually improving, so I wanted to leave publishing my picks as late as possible so that we could get the maximum amount of value in the odds. Both my picks ended up increasing from around 1.36 | -278 | 9/25 to 1.50 | -200 | 1/2, so it was definitely worth the wait…
Don’t forget to stop by my MMA Betting forum and let me know what you think of my betting tips, picks and predictions for Bellator 133…
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ALEXANDER SHLEMENKO vs MELVIN MANHOEF
The Alexander Shlemenko vs Melvin Manhoef fight is the reason why I’m late publishing my betting tips for Bellator 133. I feel really confident that Shlemenko will win this fight, but this bet doesn’t come without risks, because Manhoef has devastating knockout power. All week, the odds have been very low on Shlemenko to win, but they’ve now risen to the point where I feel a bet on him to beat Manhoef is a good move.
Alexander Shlemenko has almost every single advantage over Melvin Manhoef that you could possibly want in an MMA fight. Yes, it’s absolutely possible that Manhoef could punch a hole in Shlemenko’s head in the first 30 seconds of this fight and we lose our bet, but Shlemenko’s advantages are so overwhelming that we would be dumb not to bet him at the relatively decent value odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2.
First of all, I’d like to start this betting tip by recognising that Manhoef has devastating knockout power. On his day, he can knockout any Middleweight in the world. But! He’s only got one round in him. If you can survive the 1st round against Manhoef you’ll ALMOST ALWAYS win the fight. Manhoef is a guy that likes to try and take your head off in the 1st round and if you can just weather the early storm, you will beat him.
Melvin Manhoef’s only path to victory will be to knock Shlemenko out and that’s not easy to do. The Russian has an impressive professional MMA record of 51-9 and he’s only ever been knocked out ONCE. Shlemenko hasn’t fought the highest calibre of opponent throughout his career, but it’s still impressive that he’s only ever been knocked out once in 60 career fights. It’s also worth mentioning that the only time he ever did get knocked out was over 10 years ago…
Melvin Manhoef might have serious knockout power, but Shlemenko is seriously tough and he’s seriously durable and he’s got an ungodly ability to take a punch and recover when he gets hurt.
Alexander Shlemenko also fights out of the Southpaw stance which means he’ll naturally be moving away from Manhoef’s power right hand. This always makes the possibility of a knockout much less likely.
Fighting out of the Southpaw stance also opens up Manhoef’s body to Shlemenko’s BRUTAL body kicks. Manhoef doesn’t have the best cardio and he’s going to be seriously gasping for air when the Russian lands a few of his trademark kicks. Shlemenko is one of the few guys that makes a real point of attacking the body early in a fight and it always pays off for him in the 3rd round when his opponents are struggling. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Shlemenko finishes this fight with a body kick.
Alexander Shlemenko is also a much better grappler than Melvin Manhoef. He’s started to mix takedowns into his game in his last few fights and Manhoef doesn’t have the best takedown defence. It’s entirely possible that Shlemenko grabs a hold of Manhoef and takes him down with his trademark body lock. Shlemenko could easily win this fight if he choses to implement this gameplan, but I doubt he will, because he only ever seems to take his opponents down when he gets hurt.
You also have to take into account the fact that Shlemenko is 7 years younger than Manhoef. An age gap this big is always a huge advantage for the younger fighter and Manhoef has taken a lot of head trauma throughout his career. He was brutally knocked out against Joe Schilling just 3 months ago and if you’ve ever had a concussion, you’ll know that it takes 6 – 8 weeks for your head to feel right again. I have a feeling that Manhoef might be stepping back into the cage a little too soon and at 37 years old, that last knockout might have had a serious impact on his durability.
Alexander Shlemenko should be able to win this fight with pressure and aggression. He will almost certainly land more strikes, he should also land a few takedowns and he’ll easily be able to hold the centre of the cage and push Manhoef back. If Shlemenko can avoid getting knocked out, he will easily win.
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MY BETTING TIP: 1.5 Units [1.5% of your bankroll] on Alexander Shlemenko to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
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DANIEL WEICHEL vs PAT CURRAN
I wasn’t surprised that the odds on Shlemenko to beat Manhoef improved. Afterall, Manhoef is an exciting fighter and people love to bet on exciting fighters. It came as no surprise that casual bettors placed their bets on Manhoef to win, which helped to improve the odds on the less exciting Shlemenko. With that being said, I was very surprised to see the odds on Pat Curran improve.
There’s no doubt that Pat Curran is the bigger name, so it’s not like the casual bettors could have pushed the price up on him by betting on Weichel to win. It’s also strange because Curran has huge advantages over Weichel, so it’s not like the sharp bettors would have pushed the price up on Curran either. I literally have no idea why the odds have improved on Curran to win, but I don’t care because I’m more than happy to bet on him and capitalize on the extra value in the odds.
Aside from an injury or something crazy happening, I really don’t see any way that Daniel Weichel can win this fight. He just doesn’t have the skills, the output or the aggression to cause Pat Curran problems.
This will be a short breakdown, because there’s not really much more that I can say. Pat Curran is just a much better fighter than Daniel Weichel. I believe the odds on Curran to win should have been around 1.25 | -400 | 1/4, so I’m delighted with the extra value in these odds.
Look at it like this…
Weichel doesn’t have very technical striking, whereas Curran has solid kickboxing and throws a wide range of strikes.
Weichel doesn’t have the best takedowns or wrestling, whereas Curran has superb takedown defence and strong grappling.
Weichel doesn’t have very good cardio, whereas Curran has cardio for days and experience at competing in 5 round fights.
Weichel doesn’t have knockout power and even if he did, Curran has an incredible chin.
I just don’t see how Daniel Weichel could win this fight…
Weichel’s biggest weakness is that he is a reactive fighter and he doesn’t throw a high enough volume of strikes. It’s very hard for him to win rounds because he is very inactive. Here are a couple of clips that illustrate just how low Weichel’s output is…
Pat Curran has looked impressive against Daniel Straus and Patricio Freire, who are both far superior fighters in every single aspect of MMA than Daniel Weichel. Curran should have no problem winning this fight…
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MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Pat Curran to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
