I’ve got two betting tips for Invicta FC 13 and we’re guaranteed to make a profit if just one of them wins! I don’t know what the oddsmakers were thinking when they set the odds for these two fights, but there’s an incredible amount of value in both of these picks. One of them is the underdog when they should clearly be the favourite and the other girl is a more skilled fighter in almost every single aspect of MMA. I expect both these bets to win, which would help us kick off July with a solid profit.
IRENE ALDANA vs TONYA EVINGER BETTING TIP
Irene Aldana and Tonya Evinger compete in a 5 round fight for the vacant Bantamweight title at Invicta FC 13. When Unibet first released the odds for this fight, they installed Irene Aldana as the favourite at odds of 1.44 | -227 | 11/25. I was delighted with these odds, because I’d personally cap Aldana at around 1.36 | -277 | 9/25. Imagine my surprise when 5 Dimes released their odds earlier today and set the line at almost dead evens! You can currently bet Aldana at around 1.88 | -113 | 22/25, which is an insane amount of value!
This is a 5 round title fight and Tonya Evinger is well known for having bad cardio. It is a problem that has plagued her throughout her career. She barely has the cardio to fight 3 rounds let alone 5. I believe that Tonya Evinger needs to win this fight inside the distance to beat Aldana and I just don’t see it happening because Aldana is extremely tough and extremely well rounded.
Irene Aldana has a significant advantage when it comes to striking. Her fast hands and good technical Boxing will be too much for Evinger who is extremely slow and wings punches without any real technique. Aldana also does an excellent job of staying light on her feet and using good footwork to circle away from her opponents and avoid takedowns.
Aldana is known for being a technical striker, but she’s also pretty decent on the ground. She possesses reasonably good takedown defence, decent scrambles and her submission game isn’t bad either. Tonya Evinger is probably a better overall grappler, but she makes a lot of mistakes on the ground, which gives her opponents an opportunity to catch her in subs or scramble back to their feet. Evinger’s biggest problem on the ground is that she’s ALWAYS trying to improve her position and whilst this would normally be a strength, Evinger lacks the grappling control to maintain position whilst she’s transitioning to a better position. This gives her opponent’s opportunities to improve their position, stand up or reverse Evinger’s control. Aldana is very active on the ground and she has excellent scrambles. I don’t think that Evinger’s usual style of grappling will enable her to maintain dominant positions over Aldana for long enough to win this fight on the judges score cards.
Irene Aldana is also faster, more athletic and more well rounded than Evinger. She also has the advantage of being 7 years younger and she appears to be able to fight at a high pace with cardio for days. Aldana should be able to use her superior technique and solid footwork to keep this fight standing and pick Evinger apart. If the fight does go to the ground, Aldana should be able to scramble out of bad positions are at the very least keep the grappling exchanges competitive.
MY BETTING TIP: 3.5 Units [3.5% of your bankroll] on Irene Aldana to win at odds of 1.88 | -113 | 22/25
AMBER BROWN vs CATHERINE COSTIGAN BETTING TIP
I have no idea why Amber Brown is the underdog in this fight. I can only assume it’s because whoever set the odds capped the fight by looking at each girl’s MMA record. If they would have taken the time to study footage of Brown and Costigan, they would have realised that Brown is clearly the better fighter.
Catherine Costigan is undefeated at 5-0, but each of those wins have come against very low level opposition on the regional MMA circuit in Europe. She has actually struggled against some very low level opponent’s, which means she’s got her hands full with an aggressive brawler like Brown.
Catherine Costigan has a Muay Thai base, but she lacks power and her strikes don’t look like they do any damage to her opponent’s at all. I know she’s an Atomweight, but she perfectly encapsulates the expression “Pillow Fists”. In contrast, Amber Brown has good technical striking and she hits very hard for an Atomweight. If you have UFC Fight Pass, you should go and checkout her last fight against Liz McCarthy. McCarthy tried to smother Brown with grappling, but Brown was still able to completely butcher her face and left McCarthy busted up pretty bad.
Costigan has a Muay Thai base, but she doesn’t like to exchange with her opponents. Most of her fights are spent in the clinch and she tries to secure takedowns with scrappy trips against the cage. This will not work against Amber Brown, because Brown is a strong wrestler with good takedown defence. Costigan is known as being a strong Atomweight grappler on the European MMA circuit, but it’s a whole different ball game when you start competing against American wrestlers and Costigan has never competed outside of Europe. Costigan has had success grappling on the European circuit, because most rookie European fighters have absolutely no ground game or submission defence. This enables someone with the slightest edge on the ground, to pickup wins by submission relatively easily.
This will be the first time that Catherine Costigan has competed outside of Europe, where as Amber Brown has competed in Japan against some tough veterans and she also has experience fighting in Invicta. Brown has fought a much higher level of opponent throughout her career and this will give her a big advantage in this fight.
Atomweight fights are normally won by the more aggressive fighter, because most Atomweight’s lack the strength to slow their opponent’s down or win fights inside the distance. Costigan has weak strikes and she likes to fight going backwards, which means she’s at a significant disadvantage in this fight, because Brown will naturally appear to be more aggressive.
Amber Brown should be able to win this fight by controlling the centre of the cage, fighting more aggressively and hurting Costigan in the stand up exchanges. If Costigan tries to take this fight to the ground, I also believe that Brown will be able to get the better of the scrambles and end up on top. Costigan’s path to victory is very limited and this is a great value bet.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Amber Brown to win at odds of 2.47 | +147 | 147/100