We’ve got 4 betting tips for UFC Fight Night 49, which includes a nice mix of 2 underdogs and 2 reasonably priced favourites. I’m feeling really confident in each of my picks for this event.
Don’t forget to checkout our betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night 48, which takes place just a few hours before this event.
We’ve also released our betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC 177, so don’t forget to check them out!
Remember to stop by our MMA Betting Forum, and let us know what you think of our betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night 49…
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BENSON HENDERSON vs RAFAEL DOS ANJOS
My first betting tip for UFC Fight Night 49 is for the main event match up between Benson Henderson and Rafael Dos Anjos.
Benson Henderson and Rafael Dos Anjos are extremely well matched. They’re both around the same age, they’re both about the same height and they both have roughly the same reach. They also land roughly the same amount of strikes per minute, they roughly shoot for the same amount of take downs and they both have equally good take down defence.
In a fight so closely matched, you’d expect the odds to be pretty close, but they’re not. Rafael Dos Anjos is currently a huge underdog at around 3.60 | +260 | 13/5 and I find that insane!
Benson Henderson’s fights are always close and he doesn’t have any significant advantages over the Brazilian. The more aggressive fighter will win 9 times out of 10 when a fight is close and Rafael Dos Anjos is undoubtedly more aggressive than Benson Henderson. At odds of around 3.60 | +260 | 13/5, Rafael Dos Anjos is my best value bet since I tipped Bobby Green to beat Josh Thomson a few weeks ago.
I’m going to recommend that you bet half a standard stake on Rafael Dos Anjos to win. This is because Benson Henderson’s fights are always close and you can never trust MMA judges! You also have to consider the fact that this will be the first time that Rafael Dos Anjos has competed in a 5 round fight. Dos Anjos has shown excellent cardio throughout his career, but sometimes a fighter’s pacing will be a little off when they compete in a 5 round fight for the first time. This is because they try to conserve energy for the later rounds and end up fighting more tentatively.
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OUR BETTING TIP: 5.00 Units on Rafael Dos Anjos to win at odds of 3.60 | +260 | 13/5
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JORDAN MEIN vs MIKE PYLE
Jordan Mein is faster, stronger and more explosive than Mike Pyle. He’s also very well rounded and pretty hard to hit.
Mike Pyle’s only advantage over Jordan Mein is his experience, but experience also comes at a cost in MMA…
Pyle is 14 years older than Jordan Mein and the younger fighter wins around 75% of the time when there is this big of an age gap in a fight.
If both these fighters were well matched, I’d probably still pick Jordan Mein to win because of his huge age advantage. But since I also believe Mein has the best chance of winning from a technical standpoint, this one’s a no brainer. You should bet Jordan Mein to win…
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Jordan Mein to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2
The best odds on Jordan Mein to win can be found at: [adrotate group=”80″]
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FRANCIS CARMONT vs THALES LEITES
Thales Leites’ biggest strength is his ground game, but he doesn’t have very good take downs. Nearly all of his take downs come from the clinch and the clinch is one of Carmont’s strongest positions. Carmont generally has excellent take down defence and his Muay Thai style is likely to cause Leites all kinds of problems if the Brazilian tries to tie him up.
Francis Carmont has a huge advantage when it comes to striking. Thales Leites only uses his striking to close the distance and tie his opponents up and that strategy is going to be really difficult to employ against Carmont, who is really fast and he does a great job of using footwork to circle out of danger.
Thales Leites also tends to slow down and has shown some cardio issues throughout his career. Francis Carmont has excellent cardio, he’s very strong and he fights at a relentless pace.
Thales Leites is very similar to Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza because they have the same body type and very similar fighting styles. Jacare is undoubtedly a better fighter than Thales Leites and Francis Carmont put on a pretty good performance against him. In fact, Carmont probably would’ve won that fight by decision, if Jacare hadn’t have gained top position for the majority of the first round.
The point I am trying to make, is that Francis Carmont did a pretty good job of neutralizing Jacare’s threats and Leites poses similar threats, without the level of striking or takedowns that Jacare has.
I’m predicting a dominant win for Francis Carmont…
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Francis Carmont to win at odds of 1.67 | -149 | 67/100
The best odds on Francis Carmont to win can be found at: [adrotate group=”80″]
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ALEX GARCIA vs NEIL MAGNY
Neil Magny is an underdog in this fight, but he matches up very well against Alex Garcia.
Garcia is a great fighter, but he doesn’t have the cardio or body type to back it up. Garcia fights in peaks and troughs, where he will explode for 20 seconds and then spend the next 40 seconds neutralizing his opponent, so that he can recover. Neil Magny is not the kind of guy who is going to let him do that and whilst Garcia has looked great in his last couple of fights, I can’t help but feel that he’s going to get exposed against Magny.
Neil Magny’s biggest weapon is his reach and he’s extremely good at using it. Magny continually pops a jab in his opponents face and this makes it a lot easier for Magny to set up the rest of his offence. Magny’s relentless jab will also be a huge factor in this fight, because it will make it even more difficult for Garcia to catch his breath and recover.
Neil Magny fights at a very high pace and I absolutely know that Garcia won’t be able to keep up with him. Garcia’s only hope of winning this fight is an early knock out or lay and pray control. Both of those outcomes seem unlikely, because Magny has never been knocked out and he also has decent wrestling. Even if Garcia does manage to take Magny down, Garcia hasn’t shown particularly good control.
If Magny makes it out of the first round, this should be a relatively easy fight for him…
OUR BETTING TIP: 10.00 Units on Neil Magny to win at odds of 2.25 | +125 | 5/4
The best odds on Neil Magny to win can be found at: [adrotate group=”80″]
