UFC Fight Night Berlin is a difficult event to bet on because it’s packed full of fighters who are inconsistent or fighting in the UFC for the first time. This means I’ve had to take extra caution with my bets for this event, because we don’t want to bet on guys who could show up and under-perform.
I’ve spent a lot of time researching my betting tips for UFC Fight Night Berlin and I believe I’ve found 3 fighters who all hold significant advantages over their opponents.
I expect to win all 3 bets for this event and I’ll be really disappointed if any of the guys we’re betting on lose. If everyone shows up and fights to their full potential, we should easily go 3-0 for this event.
You can read one of my betting tips for UFC Fight Night Berlin in this article and the rest can be viewed by my Premium Members. Click here to check them out.
TAYLOR LAPILUS vs YUTA SASAKI BETTING TIP
Yuta Sasaki is a top prospect in the Featherweight division and we shouldn’t let one bad performance take away from the fact that he’s actually very good. Yes, Sasaki failed to live up to his hype when he got choked out by Leandro Issa in Brazil, but you’ve only got to checkout some of his fights on Youtube to see that this kid is legit.
Sasaki didn’t look good against Leandro Issa, but plenty of top guys have had bad nights in Brazil and come back stronger. Sasaki is still only 25 and he has barely fought outside of Japan. Japanese fighters notoriously under-perform when they fight in different countries and it’s no surprise that Sasaki flaked under the bright lights, passionate crowd and humidity of Brazil.
Even if Sasaki totally flakes and performs terribly in this fight, I still don’t see anyway in which Lapilus can win…
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I’ve already made 45.76 units of profit in 2015.
This means that betting just $10 a unit on each of my betting tips over the last 5 months would have resulted in a profit of $457 Betting $100 per unit would have resulted in a profit of $4576 and betting $1000 per unit would have resulted in a profit of $45,760.
My results in 2015 are tracked and verified by Cappertek, a 3rd party bet tracking platform.
Taylor Lapilus is a French fighter with a Kick Boxing base. He looks like a decent striker, but looks can be deceiving because Lapilus has failed to finish a single opponent with strikes in 10 professional MMA fights. His pro MMA record of 9-1 may look impressive, but that record is made up of wins against EXTREMELY low level opposition. Most of his career fights have taken place on the French Regional MMA circuit where the standard of competition is very low.
What surprised me about Lapilus’ record is that it consists of wins against a very low level of opponent – even by French MMA standards! His 9 wins have come against opponents with MMA records of 3-1, 1-2, 1-3, 0-3, 4-7, 12-3, 6-7, 0-1 and 11-11.
We see a lot of guys enter the UFC with padded records, but putting together a padded record in a country like Brazil or the USA isn’t as bad, because the standard is still much better than it is in France. What’s even more shocking is how Lapilus has gone the distance and struggled to beat a good number of those low level fighters.
Taylor Lapilus is simply not UFC level at this stage in his career. He still needs to develop before he is capable of taking on guys like Yuta Sasaki. Take a look at one of his recent fights and see for yourself…
The guy he fought in that video was 1-2 and found it easy to take Lapilus down…
That fight took place just 12 months ago and Lapilus still trains at Crossfire MMA in Paris. This means that it’s unlikely he has improved his takedown defence or ground game to a level where he would be able to deal with an elite grappler like Sasaki.
It’s possible that Taylor Lapilus could have better striking than Sasaki, but he’s completely out of his depth on the ground and he doesn’t have the takedown defence to keep this fight standing. Lapilus’ inability to beat rookie French fighters by knockout or TKO also indicates that he won’t have the power to stop Sasaki with strikes.
Yuta Sasaki should be able to grab a hold of Lapilus, drag him to the ground and submit him. I would be very surprised if Lapilus manages to survive the first round.
Click here to read more of my betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC Fight Night Berlin – Joanna Jedrzejczyk vs Jessica Penne.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Yuta Sasaki to win at odds of 1.39 | -255 | 39/100