Betting Tips For UFC 169 – Alistair Overeem v Frank Mir

Alistair Overeem and Frank Mir are two fighters who are struggling to survive in the UFC. They’re both on losing streaks and they’ve both lost their place amongst the elite fighters in the Heavyweight division, but there is one clear difference between them…

Both Mir and Overeem are suffering from a run of bad form, but the reasons for that bad form are very different. Mir has looked very poor in the Octagon recently, whilst Overeem can attribute his two consecutive losses to bad luck and cockiness…

Overeem’s first loss came at the hands of Antonio Silva, in a fight that he was dominating. Overeem started to show boat during the second round and Silva caught him with a big punch in the third that knocked Overeem out cold.

Overeem’s most recent loss came at the hands of top contender Travis Browne. Again this was a fight that Overeem was dominating and came very close to winning. Unfortunately Browne was able to survive a vicious barrage of punches, before knocking out Overeem in the first round. It was one of the greatest comebacks in UFC history and you have to feel sorry for Overeem. He would have finished almost any other fighter in the UFC with the punches he landed on Browne, but it just goes to show how dangerous Overeem’s striking is.

At first glance it’s clear that Overeem has an advantage in this fight, but it’s not until you review the performance stats for both fighters, that you realise just how big of an advantage the
Dutchman has.

In the striking department it’s no surprise that Overeem lands more shots per fight than Mir and he also strikes with more accuracy, but the most damning statistic is the amount of damage that both fighters absorb during a fight. On average Overeem gets hit just once per minute, whilst Mir gets hit on average 4 times a minute. Frank Mir is now 34 years old and it takes on average 9.8 landed strikes to knock out a 34 year old man. This means that unless Mir can get this fight to the ground, he’s probably going to get knocked out within the first three minutes of this fight. Which brings us nicely onto the next area that this fight could take place, the grappling…

Mir is an absolute beast on the ground, but he struggles to take his opponents down. In fact, he has a pretty poor take down success rate of just 46% and he only shoots for take downs from the clinch. This will be a dangerous tactic against Overeem, who is a lethal Muay Thai striker, who possesses devastating knock out power from the clinch.

Another problem with Mir’s overall strategy, is that he is prepared to take a punch to grab a hold of his opponents, this tactic will cause him problems if he tries to do this against Overeem, as Overeem is an expert at creating distance and punishing fighters who try to tie him up.

Overeem has also defended 78% of all takedown attempts in the UFC, so whilst he might not have the best ground game, it’s extremely hard to get him there. This takedown defence statistic is even more impressive, when you consider the fact that Overeem has fought Brock Lesnar, Fabricio Werdum and Antonio Silva, who all possess excellent take down skills.

There’s only going to be one winner in this fight and although the odds are relatively small at around 1.36 [-275 | 4/11], Overeem to win is a pretty safe bet. I’d be amazed if Mir survives the first round, so be sure to head on over to [adrotate group=”19″] when you place your bets, as they currently have the best value odds for this fight.

OUR BET: 10.00 UNITS ON ALISTAIR OVEREEM TO WIN AT 1.36 | -275 | 4/11[divider]


The best odds for this fight can be found at [adrotate group=”19″].

Alistair Overeem To Win
Frank Mir To Win

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I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.