Cage Warriors 113 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions

Cage Warriors 113 could be the last MMA event that we get to bet on until UFC 249, which is scheduled to take place in 4 weeks’ time. Let’s make the most of this opportunity to bet on some fights outside of the UFC and hopefully make some cash. I’ll be Livestreaming my research for every fight on this card.

There are no UFC events taking place over the next 4 weeks, but that doesn’t mean that things will slow down around here. For many years I have wanted to produce video content for the website, which covers topics such as Bankroll Management, Betting Psychology, and Betting strategies. These aspects of Gambling are just as important as placing winnings bets and are absolutely essential to making money. The busy MMA schedule makes it difficult for me to find the time to produce content like this, so this 4 week break gives me a golden opportunity to produce some content on these topics.

Over the next 4 weeks, I am going to be posting videos to a new “Members Only” area of the website, which will focus on the deeper aspect of Gambling. If you have any ideas for topics you’d like me to cover in videos, please leave a message in the Forum thread that I created here.

I’ll let you know by email as soon as the new Members area is built.

Fight Betting Tip Who I think will win Who I think is the better bet
Bartosz Fabinski vs Darren Stewart No bet Stewart Stewart
Joe McColgan vs Mason Jones No bet Jones Jones
Decky Dalton vs Paddy Pimblett No bet Pimblett Pimblett
David Bear vs Nathan Jones No bet Jones Jones
Jamie Richardson vs Matthew Bonner 2 units on Jamie Richardson to win at odds of 1.90 | -110 | 9/10 Richardson Richardson
Perry Andre Goodwin vs Steve Aimable No bet Aimable Aimbable
Kingsley Crawford vs Lewis Monarch No bet Crawford Crawford
Darren O’Gorman vs Connor Hignett No bet O’Gorman O’Gorman
Adam Amarashinghe vs Jake Bond No bet Amarashinghe Amarashinghe
James Hendin vs Kris Edwards No bet Hendin Hendin
Aidan Stephen vs Jack Collins No bet Collins Collins

Jamie Richardson vs Mark Bonner Betting Tip and Prediction

All of the fighters competing at Cage Warriors 113 are very low level. I need to make it very clear to you that there are no safe bets when you bet on low-level MMA because lower-level fighters are prone to making mistakes that can cost them the fight at any time. It doesn’t matter how much you know about the sport or how much work you put in; you can’t control the fact that lower-level fighters will make a lot more mistakes than more skilled fighters that you see competing in the UFC and Bellator. If you struggle to deal with losing, please don’t tail any of my bets for Cage Warriors because there’s a good chance that they will lose.

Lower level fighters competing on small regional shows like Cage Warriors also have many significant challenges to deal with in their lives that can have a big impact on their performances from event to event. You never know how they’re going to look on fight night because many of them work full-time jobs, so they may not be able to dedicate as much time to training as they’d like. They also don’t earn much money, so maybe they can’t afford to eat a good diet, and they can’t afford Nutritionists and Strength and Conditioning coaches to help them with their weight cut. The pressure of raising a family, working a full-time job, and trying to forge a career as a Professional Fighter can also add a massive amount of pressure, stress, and anxiety to a fighter’s life. This can have a severe impact on their performance and is one of the reasons why lower-level fighters are so inconsistent.

Betting on lower level, regional MMA is fraught with additional risk, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t find value on these fights. After spending some time researching the fight between Jamie Richardson and Matthew Bonner, it became clear that Richardson is just a little bit better than Bonner everywhere, which means he’s a decent value bet at his current odds. You can find the reasons why in part 1 of our Cage Warriors Livestream research session below:

As you can see, Richardson should have an advantage over Bonner when it comes to striking. He’s faster and more technical than Bonner and throws a wider range of strikes. Bonner is quite slow, stiff and stands rigid and upright. Richardson moves much better and should have a decent speed advantage.

Both these guys like to mix things up on the ground, so that’s where I expect the fight to take place. Bonner loves to try and take his opponents down, and there’s a good chance he’ll be able to get this fight to the ground because Richardson’s takedown defense isn’t great.

Bonner being able to take Richardson down isn’t too much of a concern, though, because Bonner is not heavy from top position and frequently gets reversed when on top or gives up position. Richardson is quite weak off his back, but he is much heavier from top position. Bonner just looks to lay and pray when he obtains top position, whereas Richardson is able to inflict major damage with his ground and pound.

This fight will most likely be contested on the ground, where I feel Richardson should do quite well. There’s a chance he gets laid and prayed, but on the entire body of work from both guys, it’s much more likely that Bonner loses top position, ends up on the bottom, and allows Richardson to steal rounds by inflicting more damage. Richardson should also do pretty good in striking range.

Neither of these guys are going to be totally solid, but Richardson’s current odds of around 1.90 | -110 | 9/10 carry an implied probability of just 53%. Richardson is a little better than Bonner everywhere, which makes it personally reasonable to cap him at 60%, giving us a good margin of value over the bookies.

Hopefully, Richardson comes through for us, but as I said, this is a very low-level of MMA, and anything can happen. Please be prepared to lose your money if you pull the trigger on Richardson. You have been warned. Low-level guys tend to be more inconsistent, and they’re prone to imploding. These factors are outside of my control. I recommend that you do your own research and decide for yourself if you want to tail this bet.

Reasons for betting on Jamie Richardson

  • Jamie Richardson is slightly better than Matthew Bonner almost everywhere.
  • Bonner is quite stiff, slow and rigid standing. He doesn’t move his head much.
  • Richardson is much more technical than Bonner standing. He’s faster and throws a much wider range of strikes.
  • Matthew Bonner isn’t a very strong offensive wrestler.
  • Matthew Bonner does not have a very heavy top game.
  • Bonner frequently gets reversed and gives up top position when he’s on top of his opponents.
  • Richardson is much tighter and much more technical on the ground than Bonner.
  • Richardson is heavier from top position than Bonner.
  • When in top position, Bonner just looks to lay and pray, whereas Richardson is able to inflict major damage from top position.
  • Matthew Bonner is not an efficient grappler. We’ve seen him gas out badly when forced to work hard.
  • Richardson has an excellent gas tank for this level of MMA.
  • Richardson is only 23 years old, so he should be making massive improvements from fight to fight.

Risk Factors with betting on Jamie Richardson

  • Lower level MMA fighters like Richardson tend to be very inconsistent.
  • Richardson is only 23 years old and very inexperienced, so he’ll be prone to making big mistakes that could cost him.
  • Richardson probably has a full time job and can’t afford to focus 100% on MMA.
  • At times Richardson looks weak off his back and waits too long to work his way back to his feet. This should improve with experience.
  • Bonner has shown flashes of good offensive wrestling.
  • Richardson is quite reckless at times.
  • We’ve seen Richardson get dropped off two body shots. Bonner doesn’t have any power in his hands, but this is a potential weakness.

My Betting Tip

Jamie Richardson to win

Recommended Stake

2 Units

[2% of your bankroll]

Odds

Decimal = 1.90
Moneyline = -110
Fractional = 9/10

53%

Implied Probability

The bookies believe that Jamie Richardson has a 53% chance of beating Matthew Bonner based on their current odds.

60%

Our Probability

I believe that Jamie Richardson has a 60% chance of beating Matthew Bonner based on my extensive research and analysis.

Allsopp
I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.