Cage Warriors 113 could be the last MMA event that we get to bet on until UFC 249, which is scheduled to take place in 4 weeks’ time. Let’s make the most of this opportunity to bet on some fights outside of the UFC and hopefully make some cash. I’ll be Livestreaming my research for every fight on this card.
There are no UFC events taking place over the next 4 weeks, but that doesn’t mean that things will slow down around here. For many years I have wanted to produce video content for the website, which covers topics such as Bankroll Management, Betting Psychology, and Betting strategies. These aspects of Gambling are just as important as placing winnings bets and are absolutely essential to making money. The busy MMA schedule makes it difficult for me to find the time to produce content like this, so this 4 week break gives me a golden opportunity to produce some content on these topics.
Over the next 4 weeks, I am going to be posting videos to a new “Members Only” area of the website, which will focus on the deeper aspect of Gambling. If you have any ideas for topics you’d like me to cover in videos, please leave a message in the Forum thread that I created here.
I’ll let you know by email as soon as the new Members area is built.
|Fight||Betting Tip||Who I think will win||Who I think is the better bet|
|Bartosz Fabinski vs Darren Stewart||No bet||Stewart||Stewart|
|Joe McColgan vs Mason Jones||No bet||Jones||Jones|
|Decky Dalton vs Paddy Pimblett||No bet||Pimblett||Pimblett|
|David Bear vs Nathan Jones||No bet||Jones||Jones|
|Jamie Richardson vs Matthew Bonner||2 units on Jamie Richardson to win at odds of 1.90 | -110 | 9/10||Richardson||Richardson|
|Perry Andre Goodwin vs Steve Aimable||No bet||Aimable||Aimbable|
|Kingsley Crawford vs Lewis Monarch||No bet||Crawford||Crawford|
|Darren O’Gorman vs Connor Hignett||No bet||O’Gorman||O’Gorman|
|Adam Amarashinghe vs Jake Bond||No bet||Amarashinghe||Amarashinghe|
|James Hendin vs Kris Edwards||No bet||Hendin||Hendin|
|Aidan Stephen vs Jack Collins||No bet||Collins||Collins|
Jamie Richardson vs Mark Bonner Betting Tip and Prediction
All of the fighters competing at Cage Warriors 113 are very low level. I need to make it very clear to you that there are no safe bets when you bet on low-level MMA because lower-level fighters are prone to making mistakes that can cost them the fight at any time. It doesn’t matter how much you know about the sport or how much work you put in; you can’t control the fact that lower-level fighters will make a lot more mistakes than more skilled fighters that you see competing in the UFC and Bellator. If you struggle to deal with losing, please don’t tail any of my bets for Cage Warriors because there’s a good chance that they will lose.
Lower level fighters competing on small regional shows like Cage Warriors also have many significant challenges to deal with in their lives that can have a big impact on their performances from event to event. You never know how they’re going to look on fight night because many of them work full-time jobs, so they may not be able to dedicate as much time to training as they’d like. They also don’t earn much money, so maybe they can’t afford to eat a good diet, and they can’t afford Nutritionists and Strength and Conditioning coaches to help them with their weight cut. The pressure of raising a family, working a full-time job, and trying to forge a career as a Professional Fighter can also add a massive amount of pressure, stress, and anxiety to a fighter’s life. This can have a severe impact on their performance and is one of the reasons why lower-level fighters are so inconsistent.
Betting on lower level, regional MMA is fraught with additional risk, but that doesn’t mean that you can’t find value on these fights. After spending some time researching the fight between Jamie Richardson and Matthew Bonner, it became clear that Richardson is just a little bit better than Bonner everywhere, which means he’s a decent value bet at his current odds. You can find the reasons why in part 1 of our Cage Warriors Livestream research session below:
As you can see, Richardson should have an advantage over Bonner when it comes to striking. He’s faster and more technical than Bonner and throws a wider range of strikes. Bonner is quite slow, stiff and stands rigid and upright. Richardson moves much better and should have a decent speed advantage.
Both these guys like to mix things up on the ground, so that’s where I expect the fight to take place. Bonner loves to try and take his opponents down, and there’s a good chance he’ll be able to get this fight to the ground because Richardson’s takedown defense isn’t great.
Bonner being able to take Richardson down isn’t too much of a concern, though, because Bonner is not heavy from top position and frequently gets reversed when on top or gives up position. Richardson is quite weak off his back, but he is much heavier from top position. Bonner just looks to lay and pray when he obtains top position, whereas Richardson is able to inflict major damage with his ground and pound.
This fight will most likely be contested on the ground, where I feel Richardson should do quite well. There’s a chance he gets laid and prayed, but on the entire body of work from both guys, it’s much more likely that Bonner loses top position, ends up on the bottom, and allows Richardson to steal rounds by inflicting more damage. Richardson should also do pretty good in striking range.
Neither of these guys are going to be totally solid, but Richardson’s current odds of around 1.90 | -110 | 9/10 carry an implied probability of just 53%. Richardson is a little better than Bonner everywhere, which makes it personally reasonable to cap him at 60%, giving us a good margin of value over the bookies.
Hopefully, Richardson comes through for us, but as I said, this is a very low-level of MMA, and anything can happen. Please be prepared to lose your money if you pull the trigger on Richardson. You have been warned. Low-level guys tend to be more inconsistent, and they’re prone to imploding. These factors are outside of my control. I recommend that you do your own research and decide for yourself if you want to tail this bet.
Reasons for betting on Jamie Richardson
Risk Factors with betting on Jamie Richardson
My Betting Tip
Jamie Richardson to win
[2% of your bankroll]
Decimal = 1.90
Moneyline = -110
Fractional = 9/10
The bookies believe that Jamie Richardson has a 53% chance of beating Matthew Bonner based on their current odds.