UFC Fight Night 136 is an event packed full of heavy favorites. I can’t remember the last time I saw this many huge favorites on a UFC card. Initially, I was hopeful that I’d be able to uncover some undervalued gems and take a gamble on some big underdogs, but after completing my research on the majority of fights, there are no underdogs that I think have a legit shot of winning. We might see a couple of upsets, but predicting where the upsets will come is a complete crapshoot.
After months of sporadic UFC events with several long breaks, we now begin the action-packed Autumn / Winter UFC schedule. Between now and the end of the year we have 14 UFC events. That’s 14 potential paydays and 14 opportunities to make money.
Over the last 5 years, we have performed really well over the Autumn / Winter period. Let’s hope we can keep that trend going!
August is always a quiet month for MMA because July has so many UFC events that we usually get a break before the UFC regroups for the packed Autumn / Winter schedule. August is the calm before the storm; and then from early September until the end of January, we have a UFC event almost every weekend.
With only two UFC events in the whole of August you might be itching to place some bets on UFC Fight Night 135, but I don’t think it’s a good idea. I’ve spent a lot of time researching this event over the last couple of weeks and after agonising over a few fights I have decided it is best to pass on prefight bets.
This week I’ve been busy researching PFL 5 and Dana White’s Contender Series, but now that those events are done, I turn my attention to UFC 227. Over the next couple of days, I will be working really hard to try and uncover some decent bets so that we can continue our winning run. We have now made a profit on the last 4 consecutive events from our prefight bets, and I am determined to make it 5 in a row.
After a rocky start to July, some big underdog bets have helped us to get back on track, and we’re now slightly in profit for the month. UFC on FOX 30 is the last major MMA event in July, and it looks excellent for betting. This gives us a solid opportunity to finish the month strong and set ourselves up for a big end to the year.
UFC on FOX 30 is one of those events where I see a lot of potential betting opportunities. For this reason research for this card is going to take much longer than usual. I always like to be sure before I pull the trigger on a fighter. This means I will often go back and watch fights two or three times before making a decision. For this reason, I would prefer to prioritize research this week over writing breakdowns. As ever, once my research is complete I will go back and add breakdowns for each of the bets. This is one of those weeks where I need to try and get through the fights as fast as possible before the odds decline, but I also need to take my time so that I don’t make any mistakes.
Please don’t hesitate to speak to me in the Chat Room if you’d like to talk about any of these bets in more detail.
The inaccurate odds that we have seen on many fights recently has led me to believe that Bookies are simply not doing their homework at the moment. This lazy oddsmaking has enabled us to win several big underdog bets over the last couple of months.
The recent epidemic of inaccurate odds has prompted me to research tonight’s Dana White’s Contender Series, and it didn’t take me long to find another excellent value underdog bet. However…
I will warn you that this bet is very similar to the bet we lost last weekend at UFC Fight Night 134 on Khalid Taha to beat Nad Narimani. I still believe Taha was a solid bet at those odds, but those kinds of bets are always a gamble. I want to make it clear to you that the guy we are going to bet tonight also has holes in his game that his opponent could potentially exploit. There are also several unanswered questions surrounding him which could see him struggle.
If you don’t like to lose, you might want to sit this one out. This is a calculated gamble…
Since PFL launched a few months ago, we have consistently seen inaccurate odds which have resulted in big underdogs winning on every event. Just last month we hit a big underdog bet on Sean O’Connell to beat Ronny Markes at PFL 2.
I have spent a lot of time researching the first 4 PFL events, and I firmly believe that the bookies are not doing their homework when setting the betting odds on PFL fights. I am almost sure that they are Wikicapping these fights based on the win/loss records of each fighter. This presents us with a golden opportunity to make money because fights are not fought on paper, they are fought in a cage.
Bad judging defined last week’s results in both prefight and Live Betting, so let’s take a look into the current state of MMA judging and figure out where we go from here.
Our prefight bet on Eddie Wineland looked to be in good shape as he dropped Alejandro Perez in round 1 and did an excellent job in rounds 2 and 3 of controlling the center of the Octagon. Rounds 2 and 3 were very close, and I personally have no problem with you scoring that fight for Perez, but I do have a massive problem with the circumstances surrounding the scoring of this fight. Let me explain…
July is the busiest month of the year for MMA and this weekend is no exception with three major MMA events taking place. On Friday night we have Bellator 202, then on Saturday night, we have Bellator 203 and UFC Fight Night 133. This weekend is also extra busy from a betting perspective because this is the first time in a long time where we can bet on Bellator Prelim fights as well as the main card.
Before jumping into the fights this weekend, I want to take some time to reflect on our results from last weekend. If you’ve been a member of the community for a long time, you will know that big PPVs tend to be our Kryptonite. I briefly spoke about it last week, but for some unknown reason, there tends to be much more variance on the big UFC events. I am looking forward to getting back to our bread and butter this weekend with a low profile Fight Night card.
The Ultimate Fighter Season 27 Finale is just one of three major MMA events taking place this week. We have PFL 3 taking place on Thursday night, the TUF 27 Finale taking place on Friday night and then UFC 226 taking place on Saturday night.
Due to the number of fights taking place this week, I am prioritizing researching the fights over writing breakdowns. This will enable me to identify any betting opportunities before the odds change. Then once my research is complete I will return to the articles and add my breakdowns and reasoning for each bet.
Remember that we will be able to Live Bet the entire Prelim and Main card fights for the TUF 27 Finale and UFC 226, so be sure to join us in the Live Betting area of our website when the fights start to take advantage of this amazing opportunity. In the past, we have made huge profits on the July 7th series of UFC events and I am optimistic that we will bank another big profit this year.