Our 2019 Live Betting campaign got off to a solid start last weekend when we banked just under 8 units of profit.
Unfortunately, prefight betting went badly because our only prefight bet of the night lost when Ariane Lipski failed to show up and perform to her full potential. She looked completely different to how she had previously performed in KSW. As the 125-pound KSW Flyweight Champion we had seen Lipski fight at a high pace for 25 minutes in 5 round title fights, and yet she looked flat footed and sluggish after being underneath Calderwood for the first 5 minutes of her UFC debut. More worryingly she seemed completely clueless on the ground. She did not attempt to improve her position or scramble back to her feet, and a more experienced grappler would have submitted her with ease. This was surprising considering she is a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and regularly competes in BJJ tournaments. We’ve also seen her look very comfortable on the ground against past opponents in KSW. It was strange to see her being dominated on the ground by a low-level grappler like Joanne Calderwood.
We won’t ever know the reason why Lipski underperformed so badly, but it does feel like Female fighters have been underperforming and costing us a lot of money over the last few years. Just a few weeks ago we lost 4 units on Cyborg when she recklessly rushed forward in straight lines against Amanda Nunes with her chin up high and exposed. It was such a shockingly bad performance from a fighter that usually performs with ruthless consistency and an intelligent gameplan. Even Cyborg’s coach said that she beat herself.
I am always looking at ways that I can improve our profitability, so on Monday morning, I decided to review our prefight betting results for the past 2 years to determine whether it was worth continuing to bet on female fighters since they seem to underperform much more often than male fighters.
I chose not to include our betting results from 2016 in this evaluation because 2016 was the first year when USADA was introduced into the UFC. I also decided to exclude our bets from before 2016 because back then, without USADA, fighters we significantly more consistent than they are now.