March got off to a flying start last weekend with a solid 4.6 unit profit for UFC 235. With 6 major MMA events still to come this month I am optimistic that this could be one of our biggest months of all time. We have now been consistently grinding out profits almost every month since last September.
February turned out to be a decent month because we banked a profit of just over 11 units in total. We’ve now made a profit in 5 out of the last 6 months. March is shaping up to be our busiest month in a very long time with 5 UFC events and 2 Bellator events taking place in the next 4 weeks.
Over the last few weeks, I have started to notice some signs that the oddsmakers are struggling with the sheer number of fights taking place at the moment. The odds on the Cheick Kongo vs. Vitaly Minakov fight from this past weekend was an excellent example of this.
We’ve also seen see odds thrown up in Live Betting over the last few weeks that are completely crazy. On Bellator Newcastle 2 weeks ago, Ryan Scope and Corey Browning were massive underdogs in between rounds even though it was clear that they were involved in 50 / 50 fights. Just this past weekend we saw Aljamain Sterling, Nik Lentz, and Paul Felder as moderate favorites at the end of round 2, even though all 3 fighters were CLEARLY up 2 rounds going into the 3rd rounds with their opponents needing a finish to win the fight.
Inaccurate odds on MMA are nothing new. The opening odds on all MMA events tend to be off by 20% to 40%, but the betting sites usually get away with this by setting super low max bet limits in the days or weeks after the odds first get released. They then rely on the betting public to correct them for a minimal cost because they set max bet limits extremely low. As we get closer to the time of the fights, the betting sites gradually increase the max bet limits as the odds continue to be corrected and therefore become more accurate. Now that we are getting 1 to 3 events per week, this system is failing because it’s taking the oddsmakers longer to research fights and publish the odds, which means there isn’t as much time for the betting public to correct the odds before the fights take place.
This system is also failing because the betting public also does not have enough time to identify inaccuracies. I bet on MMA for a living, and right now I am spending 9 to 10 hours per day sitting in front of my computer researching fights. I do this 6 days a week and spend the majority of the 7th day sleeping. The average person simply cannot do this because they have to work a job and have other commitments, so this means that inaccurate odds are floating around for much longer, with decent max bet limits.
In light of all the crazy odds we are seeing, I have a feeling that we are going to do really good over the next few months if this continues.
After scanning through all the fights taking place this weekend at UFC on ESPN+ 3 I see a lot of inaccurate odds. This is something I usually see when odds first get released for a card, but the difference this week is that we are only 4 days away from the fights, so there isn’t much time for these odds to change and max bet limits will dramatically increase every day now in the run-up to an event.
For this reason, I am going to do things slightly differently this week. I am going to focus on researching these fights and getting bets out ASAP before the odds start to decline too much. I will then go back and add breakdowns and reasoning for the bets later on in the week when my research is done. Writing breakdowns is a very time-consuming process, and I think my time is better spent focusing on research at this early, critical stage of the week. I hope you understand.
These are exciting times for us. We have already banked 12.50 units of profit in February, and if the betting sites continue to struggle, I strongly believe that we have some big paydays ahead of us.
The main card for Bellator 216 starts in around 4 hours and this looks like it could be a really good card for betting. There are at least 2 bets for this event that I like a lot.
Don’t forget that tonight I will be running an experiment to see if there is enough liquidity available on websites like Bet365 and William Hill to start offering Live Betting Tips on Bellator for every event in the future.
Lando Vannata and Montana De La Rosa picked up easy wins last weekend to help us bank a solid 2.7 units of profit on prefight betting. Unfortunately, we lost the majority of these profits in Live Betting by taking a 1 unit gamble on Austin Arnett and then another 1 unit gamble on Anderson Silva at the end of round 2. If you tailed all my bets last weekend, you should have ended up with a small profit or possibly a small loss depending on the method of compounding you are currently using to grow your money.
The judges are usually our enemies, but this weekend they were our friends. It has been a long time since we won two split decisions on the same night, but thankfully the judges came through for us last weekend. They helped us out by giving Thiago Alves the win, and they also helped us cash our 3 unit Livebet on Mara Romero Borella. Overall it turned into another solid night of profit and a great way for us to start a new month of betting.
There’s no UFC this weekend, so our attention turns to Bellator where Fedor and Ryan Bader compete for the vacant Bellator Heavyweight title in the final of the Heavyweight Grand Prix.
It is also likely that Bet365 and William Hill will be offering Live Betting on these fights. I don’t provide Live Betting Tips for non-UFC MMA events for two reasons:
1. Bellator fights are not televised where I live in the UK, so I would have to rely on an illegal stream to watch the fights. Streams are usually 1 or 2 minutes behind the televised broadcast which means I would be acting on old information when recommending Live Bets. This is a bad idea because I would be making decisions and trying to gauge value in the odds on information that is out of date.
2. Liquidity is extremely low on Live Betting Bellator. This means that if I were to recommend a bet the odds would quickly decline or become suspended as soon as a small number of you would try to place the same bet as me.
Hopefully, sometime this year liquidity on Bellator Live Betting will significantly improve when European betting sites potentially start to offer their services to customers in the United States. I’ll be sure to keep you posted on any news which may change the Live Betting landscape for Bellator.
Our 2019 Live Betting campaign got off to a solid start last weekend when we banked just under 8 units of profit.
Unfortunately, prefight betting went badly because our only prefight bet of the night lost when Ariane Lipski failed to show up and perform to her full potential. She looked completely different to how she had previously performed in KSW. As the 125-pound KSW Flyweight Champion we had seen Lipski fight at a high pace for 25 minutes in 5 round title fights, and yet she looked flat footed and sluggish after being underneath Calderwood for the first 5 minutes of her UFC debut. More worryingly she seemed completely clueless on the ground. She did not attempt to improve her position or scramble back to her feet, and a more experienced grappler would have submitted her with ease. This was surprising considering she is a Purple Belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and regularly competes in BJJ tournaments. We’ve also seen her look very comfortable on the ground against past opponents in KSW. It was strange to see her being dominated on the ground by a low-level grappler like Joanne Calderwood.
We won’t ever know the reason why Lipski underperformed so badly, but it does feel like Female fighters have been underperforming and costing us a lot of money over the last few years. Just a few weeks ago we lost 4 units on Cyborg when she recklessly rushed forward in straight lines against Amanda Nunes with her chin up high and exposed. It was such a shockingly bad performance from a fighter that usually performs with ruthless consistency and an intelligent gameplan. Even Cyborg’s coach said that she beat herself.
I am always looking at ways that I can improve our profitability, so on Monday morning, I decided to review our prefight betting results for the past 2 years to determine whether it was worth continuing to bet on female fighters since they seem to underperform much more often than male fighters.
I chose not to include our betting results from 2016 in this evaluation because 2016 was the first year when USADA was introduced into the UFC. I also decided to exclude our bets from before 2016 because back then, without USADA, fighters we significantly more consistent than they are now.
2018 is over, and that means we have another profitable year under our belts.
Merry Christmas!!! I hope that you’ve had a great time with your families. I’ve taken some time off recently to relax and recharge my batteries because we’ve got a busy few months ahead of us with tons of UFC events taking place in the first quarter of 2019.
2018 has been a good year overall, and I’m hoping that we can end the year with a big profit on Saturday night at UFC 232.