In the UK, we have a saying:
“Never work with People or Animals.”
Inconsistent performances over the last few weeks from Hisaki Kato, Barb Honchak, and Jason Knight have prevented us from building on the solid profit that we earned in November. Losing bets like these are a reminder of why it’s so tough working in an industry where you have to rely on other people to show up and perform. It’s a stressful position to be in when the consistency of others determines your success as an individual. People are, by nature, unreliable. And we have learned this the hard way this month.
Kato, Honchak, and Knight were all solid bets based on prefight information, but no one could have predicted that each of them would have ended up underperforming to such a drastic degree.
It was tough to watch Barb Honchak abandon her strong wrestling that had helped her achieve so much success throughout her career. Instead, she decided to kickbox with Lauren Murphy and didn’t shoot for a single takedown in the entire 15-minute matchup. This resulted in the fight being much closer than it needed to be and she lost a razor close split decision. Then last weekend I was blown away by what we saw from Jason Knight. In the past, he has looked strong, aggressive and confident, but against Gabriel Benitez, at UFC Fight Night 123 he looked weak, lost and insecure. This was especially difficult to watch since Benitez was easily taken down and controlled on the ground in his last fight against Enrique Barzola, a grappler who is nowhere near the level of Jason Knight. Out of all the losses we have suffered this month, Hisaki Kato was the most difficult to digest as he chose to abandon his aggressive, pressure-based style of fighting in favor of walking around the Bellator cage doing absolutely nothing.
In situations like this, it is important to remember that fighters are human; they are not robots. I am also human, and we all have bad days and make mistakes.
We have killed it in Live Betting this year, but I am sure that there have been times where you have been frustrated with me for making bad decisions. I promise you that I have never intentionally made a bad betting decision, but tiredness, stress, pressure, and fatigue has an impact on my performance just like it affects fighter performances. For this reason, I try not to be too judgemental or get too frustrated when fighters do not show up and perform to their full potential. Afterall, we are all human, and we can’t always be at our best.
Our solid betting results over the last 4 years are a reminder to all of us that our results will go up and down, but if we keep making good decisions, we will consistently make money over time.
I am optimistic that we can get things back on track and end December with a profit because the next two UFC events look incredible for betting. I see multiple solid opportunities for making money on UFC on FOX 26 and I also see solid opportunities on UFC 219, which takes place in a couple of weeks.
I am also confident that we will break our target of earning 100 units of profit this year in Live Betting. Right now we are incredibly close to reaching this target having already earned almost 95 units of profit this year. I am extremely confident that we will break through the +100 unit profit target over the next couple of weeks.
Click here to checkout our Betting Tips for UFC on FOX 26…