Over the last few weeks, I have started to notice some signs that the oddsmakers are struggling with the sheer number of fights taking place at the moment. The odds on the Cheick Kongo vs. Vitaly Minakov fight from this past weekend was an excellent example of this.
We’ve also seen see odds thrown up in Live Betting over the last few weeks that are completely crazy. On Bellator Newcastle 2 weeks ago, Ryan Scope and Corey Browning were massive underdogs in between rounds even though it was clear that they were involved in 50 / 50 fights. Just this past weekend we saw Aljamain Sterling, Nik Lentz, and Paul Felder as moderate favorites at the end of round 2, even though all 3 fighters were CLEARLY up 2 rounds going into the 3rd rounds with their opponents needing a finish to win the fight.
Inaccurate odds on MMA are nothing new. The opening odds on all MMA events tend to be off by 20% to 40%, but the betting sites usually get away with this by setting super low max bet limits in the days or weeks after the odds first get released. They then rely on the betting public to correct them for a minimal cost because they set max bet limits extremely low. As we get closer to the time of the fights, the betting sites gradually increase the max bet limits as the odds continue to be corrected and therefore become more accurate. Now that we are getting 1 to 3 events per week, this system is failing because it’s taking the oddsmakers longer to research fights and publish the odds, which means there isn’t as much time for the betting public to correct the odds before the fights take place.
This system is also failing because the betting public also does not have enough time to identify inaccuracies. I bet on MMA for a living, and right now I am spending 9 to 10 hours per day sitting in front of my computer researching fights. I do this 6 days a week and spend the majority of the 7th day sleeping. The average person simply cannot do this because they have to work a job and have other commitments, so this means that inaccurate odds are floating around for much longer, with decent max bet limits.
In light of all the crazy odds we are seeing, I have a feeling that we are going to do really good over the next few months if this continues.
After scanning through all the fights taking place this weekend at UFC on ESPN+ 3 I see a lot of inaccurate odds. This is something I usually see when odds first get released for a card, but the difference this week is that we are only 4 days away from the fights, so there isn’t much time for these odds to change and max bet limits will dramatically increase every day now in the run-up to an event.
For this reason, I am going to do things slightly differently this week. I am going to focus on researching these fights and getting bets out ASAP before the odds start to decline too much. I will then go back and add breakdowns and reasoning for the bets later on in the week when my research is done. Writing breakdowns is a very time-consuming process, and I think my time is better spent focusing on research at this early, critical stage of the week. I hope you understand.
These are exciting times for us. We have already banked 12.50 units of profit in February, and if the betting sites continue to struggle, I strongly believe that we have some big paydays ahead of us.