Moons85 NRL picks
 
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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Brown Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 85
Topic starter  

Hi guys,

     I was going to start this next week after the 1st round of games played out, but from some advice given to me by some experienced mates I've decided to get it going earlier. If you tail these bets please do so at your own risk. There have been a few rule changes that may affect things starting off so I suggest going very small to start with. After making 40 units on last years season I wanted to share the love and hopefully we can all make a decent profit.

You can see the rule changes here.

https://www.nrl.com/news/2020/12/11/nrl-announces-rule-changes-to-make-game-more-entertaining/

The 1st play I like Is Melbourne Storm -1.5 or ML @1.85. Both have value.

Storm are the reining premiers and the teams got announced last night. Storm have a great side this year and have one of the best, if not the best, coaches in the game. I think the line is so generous due to their long time Captain Cameron Smith retiring. However they have lots of experienced players to pick up the slack. I apologise this break down isn't very detailed but thats how it goes so early in the season. 

I also have a 2 parlays that I'm pretty confident in. 

Newcastle Knights, Parramatta Eels, Sydney Roosters and Penrith Panthers @3.36

Newcastle Knights, Parramatta Eels, Sydney Roosters, Penrith Panthers, Melbourne Storm and Canberra Raiders @8.28

I also think playing each leg small for insurance is a good idea. Thanks for the suggestion Soppie.

After this round I will have much better reads on the teams and will go into a lot more detail.

Lets make that money lads, best of luck to all.

Moons85

 

 


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Soppie
(@soppie)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 7
 

LET'S FUCKING GO!

Also Reason to bet each leg on Parlay for me is that it's usually 1 leg that kills it. So if you win 3 out of 4 or 7 out of 10 you're made enough to cover the parlay and profit ( For anyone wondering why).

 

 


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HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 46
 

lets go boys!!!!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Brown Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 85
Topic starter  

Adding another 2 bets guys. 

Josh Addo-Carr anytime try scorer @1.91

Alex Johnston anytime try scorer @2.00

I have personally parlayed both guys with Storm ML. Storm have beaten the Rabbitohs 28-5 in their last 33 games.

Alex Johnston was last years leading try scorer and has scored 106 tries in his 144 appearances. 

Josh Addo-Carr came in 5th last year but he is opposite Mansour who is slow and has been struggling. Addo-Carr has scored 70 tries in his 105 appearances. Good luck to all that tail.

LFG! 


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Brown Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 85
Topic starter  

Very happy with the result in the Storm game. Ended 26-18 to Storm. Johnston came through for us as a try scorer. Unfortunately Josh Addo-Carr didn't get through. No fault of his own he wasn't given the chance. Great start guys LFG!

 


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 80
 

Cheers Moons i missed the Storm bet but have parlayed the rest...... LFG!!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Brown Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 85
Topic starter  

Going to add 1 play for tomorrow guys. 

Parramatta Eels Parlayed with Maika Sivo any time try scorer @2.11 has a bit of value for me. Again please go small if you tail, its the 1st round of the season and anything can happen. 

Sivo has scored 15 in his 21 appearances for the Eels and with the Brisbane Broncos still struggling from lots of changes in the club I'm not convinced they can get it together. There is a lot going on with the broncos and a lot of changes this year. They have lost some of their key players and I don't think they will have what it takes to get things done tomorrow night.

Good luck for all who tail. LFG!

 


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HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 46
 

lets get it moons!!!!!!!!!!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Brown Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 85
Topic starter  

Hey guys,

Gucci pointed out another Solid position for tonight. 

Parramatta Eels to win both halves or HT/FT @1.80 

I am also going to throw a little on HT/FT for the Penrith Panthers @1.57

Good luck boys!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Brown Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 85
Topic starter  

Good Morning guys,

The Eels and the Knights came through for us for our parlay legs. Knights had a great showing beating the Bulldogs 32-16 in poor weather conditions. The Eels had a rough start to the game against the Broncos but came through for us in the end winning 24-16. 

Unfortunately our HT/FT lost as the Broncos showed up much better than I thought they would Winning the first half. It was one of the best games I have seen in a long while. 

Our atts for Maika Sivo also lost. He did get over the line once but the try was disallowed. He made quite a few mistakes after that making the playmakers not want to utilise that side as they where having more success on the other. 

With both our parlays still in play I am quietly confident in the remaining legs.

I am also adding 1 more bet for today Stephen Crichton Atts @2.20. Crichton is a big strong guy that is great at going up and contesting kicked balls. He has scored 17 in his 26 appearances with the panthers and is a young strong prospect that had a great season last year. 

I have also parlayed him with Panthers to win @2.71. Just small on this one for fun

Remember to go small on all these bets as this first round is more about gathering information. 

Lets get it lads, Good luck to all.


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JB826
(@jb826)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 155
 

Cheers Moons!  Can't bet the props but will tail the team bet.


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 80
 

@benmooney85 Cheers Moons I’m tailing 

LFGOO


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Brown Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 85
Topic starter  

Hey guys,

Our 1st parlay hits @3.36 and our 2nd parlay Just need the Canberra Raiders for us to cash. Unfortunatley Stephen Chrichton atts didnt hit for us. Thats 1-2 with atts now and I will have much more info next week to make better calls. 

No strong plays for today. I apologise for the lack of detail I'm pretty under the weather at the moment. 

Good luck to all today!


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 80
 

Hey Moons mate I hope you’re feeling better soon.

Take care and cheers for the tips 


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Brown Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 85
Topic starter  

Good Morning all,

Very happy to wake up and see that both of our parlays hit. Thanks to @RoidFC for the suggestion of adding in the Raiders on the 2nd Parlay to make the odds nice and Juicy @8.28. 

So for our Parlays we went 2-0 and I'm calculating those at 0.25u per bet, as I told everyone to go small, for a nice profit of 2.41u

Our insurance bets would have gone 6-0 calculated at 0.25 for a profit of 0.66u

Straight team bets are 1-0 with the Storm coming through for us. 1u @1.85 for a 0.85u profit

HT/FT bets went 1-1 calculated at 1u for a loss of 0.43u

ATTS bets went 1-3 calculated at 1u for a loss of 3u

and lastly our parlay of Storm, Johnston atts, Addo-carr atts calculated at 1u for a loss of 1u

So if you were able to tail all these we would have taken a 0.51 unit loss. 

This obviously depends on how you size your units and if you were able to tail all the bets as I know some of you weren't able to. 

I'm pretty happy with the results all in all for the 1st round and I have gathered a lot of information for the coming rounds. I hope I have calculated this correctly and that everyone did ok tailing these. Good luck to everyone for the next round and thanks to all for the kind words in here and in the chat rooms. 

Thanks guys,

Moons85


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