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paul vs askren boxing bet


frozenthrone
(@frozenthrone)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 14
Topic starter  

Hey all, I was researching paul vs askren and was completely surprised to find a bet. Going into it i heavily lent jake paul, However i have done a 180 and now consider a bet on askren. 

First off, jake paul is technically to better boxer and just a nice job fighting behind the jab to set up his cross and hook off the rear hand and did a decent enough job of covering up looking for counters when his opponents blitzed him. however if you watch his first fight against deji who he had a very big size advantage over, you will see he slows down bad after the first round, becomes much flater and punchs lose their sting in a big way. and does not have a good poker face and the longer the fight goes the more you see paul's hands dropping to his hips after striking rather than returning to the guard. the only time he fought against someone with some form of basic boxing in deji you see paul gets tagged up alot and is bloodied up before the first round is even over. Later in the fight you will see deji who again is much smaller and is also gassed himself is able to back jake paul up quite easily when chooses to go forward and the tko came more from deji being exhausted more than anything.

Paul's other opponents. aneson gib left himself out of position often allowing him to be easily dropped and the ref stopped it pretty early and nate robinson kept sprinting into clinch's allowing paul to keep getting breaks during the round then Robinson sprinting face first onto counters and resulted in the fights ending in the fist and second rounds respectively. 

So as we know askren does not have the best striking however paul is a major step down in technical striking when in comparison to ufc fighters. If you watch askren vs maia we see ben actually does a good job of tagged maia up, using his lead hand as a range finder on his maia and shooting straight right hands and uppercuts as soon as he touch's the hand and maia is visibly busted up after the first round, and askren does a good job of slowly moving forward and picking his time to strike in the context of low level striking. In this fight maia also fights ben similar to how paul might approach this in that maia is standing there looking to fight behind his jab. Ben's cardio is also insanely better than paul or anyone paul has fought, and as we know askren is tough as nails taking a complete barrage from robbie lawler and continuing to press forward, It is important to note this style of striking was used for askren to open up wrestling entries so his stricky boxing style might look slightly different. so paul has a great chance of winning the first round but as the fight gets deeper i can see askren start to take over with his toughness and persistence turning this into a dog fight. Askren has also said he feels so much better after having hip surgery and gives some specific examples of things he can no do that he struggled with before leading me to believe he is being truthful.

Jake paul is a young guy so im sure he will show up looking improved and for all we know he may have improved his cardio but we have nothing to prove this, and we have not seen askren in awhile but it is also possible he looks better since he was never trying to improve his striking in mma since he would just wrestle were as now he has to win via boxing he could show up with some new tricks and im sure he is getting some good round in down at roufus sport. He could also come out looking old and slow however.

 

This is a risky bet. I give askren a 55% chance of winning so i am going to bet 1u on him as an underdog is good value. He currently sits around 2.37 and i expect his odds to go down since a lot of people will probably bet against Paul simply because they hate him. Let me know what you think and if you agree or disagree with me : )


Guccisniper72, Mysticmoose, Moons85 and 1 people liked
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Metern7
(@metern7)
Member Moderator
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 18
 

Thanks for the breakdown frozen!  I like your analysis - definitely worth a small gamble on Askren at dog odds


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HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 46
 

nice write up :).  I've had my money down on Askren for a little while now.


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Dale
 Dale
(@danegtaylor)
Member Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 15
 

Im on Askren too


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 80
 

Hey Frozen, I can see the logic in your breakdown.

Damn! I’m actually considering a bet on Askren lmao 


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frozenthrone
(@frozenthrone)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 14
Topic starter  

@guccisniper72 ik I wasn't expecting that to be the result of my research at all 😂


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David (hyppen)
(@hyppen1)
White Belt Member
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 3
 

Jake Paul not to score a knockdown is at +200 on Bet365 atm (+125 on Betstars for comparison). We know that Askren is very tough and has carried a granite chin through his entire career - I even think he said in an interview that he has never been rocked, wobbled or dropped before the Masvidal knee. The Masvidal knee is of course a big risk factor since it could potentially have ruined his chin - we dont know at the moment. But at good dog odds I think its a decent bet, I put down half a unit. I also have a unit on Askren straight at +200. 

Good luck on saturday!


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frozenthrone
(@frozenthrone)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 14
Topic starter  

@hyppen1nice, I'll have to look at that

 


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