Advise me with these parlays
So I placed a lot of stupid bets last year and got lucky with a few. :yahoo: They all end with Joanna vs Claudia. How would you insure here for maximum value?
I got HAD a FEW times with this kind of scenario.
Came close to winning BIG, but no cigar.
First time was with Bigfoot Silva vs Arlovski, and if Bigfoot (who was like -300 or something) won, i was collecting 500 Units. But Arlovski shocked most of us.
Most recently, TWICE IN A ROW : Almeida vs Garbrandt, finishing with Almeida. I woulda won several hundred units (i forget, but it should still be on that thread in this forum) but finished even. I had an epiphany and made a big fuss about the foolproofness of hedging on the last fight of a huge parlay, so I would remember not to screw the pooch next time.
RIGHT AFTER THAT!, I had a bunch of parlays finishing with "Lockhold", and was celebrating my eggs before they were hatched, and I was lucky to finish about even. Let me tell you : I felt like a REAL DUMBASS. At even 1/3 hedging, I wouldve come out a much bigger winner either way (if Bisping OR Rockhold won).
if I'd hedged 50-50 or so, i would've come out all three times with a few hundred units Guaranteed. But all three times i didnt, and only saw the light AFTER my picks were looking up at the lights.
I urge you to look at the (my) last posts of the Almeida vs Garbrandt thread, cause I did the math.
The most striking and lucrative scenario is when your last leg is a favourite, like these 3 scenarios i've mentioned here. But it works also if your last pick is an underdog. It's just that hedging costs more in that case, and it might be better to hedge only 25-33%.
I did the math to see if it was worthwhile to try to "set up" this kind of situation, but it comes out even. It only works when you're at that last leg of a parlay.
I urge you to do the math yourself, and on a sheet of paper, try 3 different scenarios : hedging a third, hedging 50-50, and hedging 2/3.
I GUARANTEE THE MATH IS WINNING.
If i added your bets up correctly :
You bet about 175 To win a total of about 875 Euros.
For the sake of not confusing units, odds and euros, i will just use $ to designate money.
Claudia is at around +150.
So now if JJ wins, you're up 700$, and if Claudia wins, you're down 175$.
If you put 100$ on Claudia : that's 275$ wagered to win :
875$ with JJ (+600$). And 250$ with Claudia (-25$)
If you put 200$ on Claudia : that's 375$ wagered to win :
875$ with JJ (+500$). And 500$ with Claudia (+125$)
If you put 300$ on Claudia : that's 475$ wagered to win :
875$ with JJ (+400$). And 750$ with Claudia (+275$)
If you put 400$ on Claudia : that's 575$ wagered to win :
875$ with JJ (+300$). And 1000$ with Claudia (+425$).
Personally, I don't know who I'd pick to win, but Mathematically and statistically, (not to mention from experience!) I believe it's better to err on the side of the Underdog.
I would also add that scenarios like these are PRECIOUS OPPORTUNITIES TO SUBSTANTIALLY GROW A BANKROLL. HIGH UNIT AMOUNT WAGERED, granted, but at ZERO RISK, since if one loses, the other wins.
Personally I'd put 425 Euros on Claudia, at +150.
That's 600 Euros wagered in all, to win :
875 Euros with JJ (+275 Euros). Or 1062 Euros with Claudia (+462 Euros).
I hope you take advantage of this opportunity, and remind me to do so too, when I'll be in that situation again!
Woodsy, thanks for the reminder on this again. I feel as stupid as you do for that alemeda loss. I seriously could have doubled my bankroll with a 25% hedge...thought didnt cross my mind. Argh.
Its funny because I do this all the time in horse racing. Sometimes I'll have a few multi-race tickets (pick 4s, pick 3s, and doubles say) all ending on one race. I'll probably have 2-3 horses from that race on my tickets. I always add up all my potential winning for each horse and then put hedging bets on the horses I don't have on those tickets. These are generally the hgiher priced longshots, so its easy to spend a little money to great effect. Sometimes they are such big longshots that I can set it up to actually make more if they win than if the multirace bets win.
This is such an important concept for anyone who plays big parlays. And your the only person driving it home constantly. I appreciate that and next time I take advantage of this oportunity I'll have you to thank! If I ever hedge into as big a win as I could have with alemeda, I may even thank you with a few units 😉
It's stupid for people to say never hedge, it all depends on the circumstance. Hedging on the last fight tends to be a good idea because our parlays usually end with a favorite winning. So that means we can hedge on an underdog and not risk that much. For instance, I always like to hedge on the last fight (if i have juicy parlays ending with him/her) but for the first time in awhile i didn't with bisping vs rockhold and got fuked. Bisping was still at like plus 325 and I coulda put like 3 bills but I decided not too and lost a g cuz of it..It depends though cuz if your parlay ends with an underdog and it isnt crazy payoffs just let it ride ..also depends how much you wager..but if a hedge covers the cost of a lot of units why not ...I heard vegas dave hedged hard for his kansas city royal win of 2.5 mill he woulda been crazy not to
Guys thank you very much for your input I will do has adviced.
cheers and have a nice day 🙂
Happy to be useful !
GarrettZ - I won't hold you to it, but I wouldn't say no either 🙂
If I can just remember to do it, whenever I'm in that situation, I'll be happy !