Copeing with a painful loss 🙁
I just want to write my pain out and see if I can figure out my next step.
This will probably be a long one..
I am hurt pretty bad from last night. As good as December was to me (48u+), almost as bad has January been so far (approx. 20(larger)U-). I increased my unit sizes before last night’s event, so this one will take some time to recover from.
(as you probably know) I honestly thought Pettis vs. Alvarez would be a mismatch. The TJ bet, I am more ok loosing, but it was closer than I thought it would be. I thought TJ did enough to win at the end, but whatever, maybe I was just biased. Kind of sad to see the two last fights being splits. Not to good for the sport and it kind of adds to the pain, but anyway.
I didn´t face the forums today to whine about my personal loss, or to try to save my face after being so high on Pettis etc. I just wanted to share my thoughts on what is most important for me (and maybe someone else?) right now.
I feel a lot of pain, that´s one fact I am aware of. I want to get rid of it and winning a lot of money would certainly accomplish this. So that is the ultimate goal. The urge to make that happen Right NOW is the thing that is very dangerous and I am glad there are not back to back events this time, because I would find it very hard to not chase this loss in my current mindset.
What has been making me money in 2015 has been betting on fewer, more carefully selected matches than before and putting in the hours to make sure I am betting on solid value, as much as possible.
What brought me to betting on mma in the first place was my passion for following the sport. Without it, the research and handicapping process would be a tedious chore. I don´t think we can become really good at this if we don´t enjoy watching fights and thinking about the fight game. With this in mind, I need to find enjoyment again. Today I don´t smile when I think about mma. That has to change before I try to figure out what bets will get me “my money back”.
I will have to take some days off and not think about mma first. Life is still grand and I have a lot to be thankful for. Right now it feels like a small catastrophe has happened, but that feeling is a bit out of proportion. What really happened is that 4 out of my 5 biggest bets lost, all in the same night, well…
In December I had three consecutive nights where I lost only one single significant bet (out of 15+). I know I can´t win every bet and that I need to evaluate my success over the long run. We will have so-so events, we will have home runs and we will be KO:ed. This KO loss is not the end of the world, it just feels like it and I still have more home run events than brutal KO losses. I think a few of these big setbacks are unavoidable. What matters is that we keep making mostly good decisions, because betting on mma is a very beatable game in the long run.
After taking a break and doing something else I will try to watch some old fights that I know are great from just an entertainment point of view, to try to get my passion back. Then I´ll watch some of my best winners again (for me they are Condit beating Alves, Dustin beating Duffy, Rousey stopping Bethe, Werdume beating Cain, Rockhold beating Weidman, a few Jones fights etc.). Hopefully this will first make me enjoy mma as a fan again and then hopefully it will make me feel like a winner again before I start trying to figure out what to bet on next. I think this is very important to get back to, enjoying the sport for what it is and feeling like a winner before making decisions.
Allsopp obviously has my full confidence still and I know that he has what it takes to deal with a loss and come back just as strong, if not stronger than before.
Maybe we needed this loss to keep us humble? Let´s remember the pain throughout 2016 and work harder than before to avoid ending up here again.
I think I needed this to not get complacent and greedy, but to remember what it was that made me successful during the good times and to respect each and every unit as much now as I did in the past? For me at least, I think that is what this loss is about.
Once I am in a better mantal place, I will start researching the event after the next one to give myself time to evaluate my decisions over a longer time span. I have tailed the bets Allsopp already has out for the next event and I most likely won´t bet myself until the event after.
I think I will also set a new goal for myself, that is not to maximize the profit straight away, but to book the next event with a win, even if it´s just 1u. This might be limiting, but for me I think it´s important to end the next event in the green, I really feel like chasing this loss right now.
One thing I have learned in competition is to not get to high during highs or low during lows. Life goes on and the better decisions we can make during valleys and peaks alike, the better our over all performance will be.
To all of you who made money, or just had a small loss yesterday, I´m happy for you, that you did better than me. For those of you that lost big, I feel your pain. Let´s get this back, in a smart way…
See you in a few days
Chin up man, this game is a marathon not a sprint. Watch your bet size so you don't have catastrophic losses and keep your expectations in check. Never chase losses, I nearly added more to TJ last night as the event slipped away but didn't and thank god for that.
This was my first weekend of bettings.
First, I followed Allsopp tip on the Invicta card. He killed with the breakdown, the fight went exactly how he predicted, but the judges screwd the result.
Ok, move on and betting on the UFC event. First, those goddamn eyepokes from Browne were killing every chance of a finish. After that, Pettis was just numb and TJ was not on his best days.
In the end, I lost 20% of my betting purse on my first try. I'm continue to follow the tips, but maybe I'm going to downsize my purse :/
Bro here is my 2 cents.
This is part of the gambling and off course you know that. However, somewhere in your mind you have not quite accepted that. You need to accept it and stop thinking about it. Its OK to analyze if your decision was correct post-event. This should be done for wins and losses. However, once you have done so you should let it go and accept it for what it is. Refresh and reset for the next event!!
No matter how hard you work no one beats variance. The feeling of entitlement that most gamblers have is worse source of pain. Don't let your thoughts and emotions control you bro stay confident and logical.
If you think you have it hard, imagine how it must be like walking in some of these fighters shoes. Imagine the string of bad luck for Cruz these past 4 year. Now that is variance at its worse!
This is nothing but an opportunity to grow! :yahoo:
I agree with all the tenets you express here.
What I don't agree with is that the TJ loss is more acceptable than the Pettis loss.
Not gambling, not bad judging... TJ simply wasn't really trying to hit Cruz, you don't whiff by that much and never adjust, he's not an idiot, the shit his corner was saying was ridiculous, it was totally fucking obvious this was a boondoggle for the guys in the Fox camp.
All the shit Cruz, Stann, Anik, Helwani.were talking was RIDICULOUS
Cruz thanked them all.
Sure, Pettis thought he could bring more of the same tired shit he brought before and didn't step up at all.
But that Cruz fight was straight up bs.. totally fucking unacceptable.
Fucking guy was telling someone "I EARNED THIS." before the decision was even read, with.TJ.right there.
Break out the fucking clown shoes, cuz that shit wad a circus!
@Iamcloud, you are exactly right of course. Funny how I said I have learned to stay even keel through competition, yet react very hard to this loss. I just need to completely feel the pain of loosing, to be able to let it go and to use it to work harder to reach my goals I guess. I do accept the variance just as I do accept the pain.
@seusicha welcome to the team. Not the best weekend to start out here, but don´t worry: Allsopp is gold. Like King_Kong said, it´s a marathon not a sprint and getting through these things is what we have bankrolls for.
Reading my initial post again I think it sounds like I would actually be very close to chasing this loss and risking a huge chunk of my bankroll. I am not, I just went (a bit to) far in describing that the feeling is there and that I am consciously avoiding that.
On a brighter note, I just saw Dan Kelly is fighting Shoe Face, now there´s some money to get back :whistle: Feeling better already, thanks for listening, lol
I think there are logical explanations to everything. Let me explain.
1. TJ v Dom. Clear dec Imo for DOM 3-2.
I think allsopp was correct on TJ's improvement but wrong on how hittable Dom was. But I think there is a reason for that. For the record I thought there was a chance TJ was over rated but I was wrong about that. He is very good.
--I re-watched the fights where dom looks hittable. and to me it fell into my Conor McGregor theory. If you watch Conor's fight with Chad Mendes. Seriously watch that fight and tell me what do you think of Conor's striking defense? Its horrible. Whatch Conor vs Dennis Siver. Tell me what you see? Conor gets tagged several times by shitty Dennis Siver. Does Conor have bad defense? No. Watch Conor's fight vs Dustin Poirer. Perfect Defense. Almost looked un-hittable. Conclusion. He wanted to avoid grappling with mendes. So he opened up the striking to bait Mendes into a pure striking battle cuz he didn't respect his power, But respected his takedowns. With Poirer he respected poirers power and took zero chances.
With Dominic Cruz - you need to remember he had already been choked out by Uriah Faber once. I think he wanted to avoid frequent grappling exchanges with Uriah. So he stood in the pocket more and traded with him. What ended up happening is we saw more of a brawl/striking battle between the 2. So there is a chance that elite fighters like Cruz and Mcgregor show different styles of defenses based on mathcups.
2. mitrione v browne - unfortuantely this fight falls into the "when both fighters are coming of 1 or 2 losses in a row" they fight tentative category. This happens all the time. But they dangled that bet in front of us and we all took the bait. This happens constantly in the UFC. It used to happen even more often when the UFC had that strict rule of 3 consecutive losses and u would be cut.
3. Pettis - I have no explanation for what happened in this fight. Sorry. Eddie has a bad chin, average wrestling, average cardio. Average BJJ. Good boxing. Below average kicks.
After a big loss comes the real test for gamblers. My personal view is that you dial the size back and find your groove again. Don't worry about winning it all back in one go. You just need to make sure your process stays super strong and you are disciplined and in time you will win it back and more. The way Allsopp did it last year after a 10+ unit drop was brilliant.
I hate to fade Cruz just because the guy is a winner. No matter what he finds a way. TJ only made the necessary adjustments late in the 3rd and he didn't leave himself enough time to real Cruz in. TJ's corner made a few tactical errors as well. He could easily have abandoned that head kick and just kicked the body/legs.
Anyway. Slowly slowly and we will win this all back.
Hi Seusisha stay with Allsopp tips this is a really good website
I also lost half my bankroll as well but it was my own fault I dont rate Pettis to highly and not only did i bet him straight at 1.30 with the 7.5 units i aslo had him in most of my parlays so adding up to close to 15 units on just pettis, i could accept the tj loss and brone /mittirone but i broke all the rules of betting on pettis
I was so stupid i was even looking at the card and saying if we lost it would be pettis thats fucks us over, and I bet him at 1.30 against a quality fighter.
There is one quote that sums up my betting philosophy:
"You cannot guarantee success but you can ensure that you deserve it"
So in my eyes, win or lose doesn't matter as much as making sure that I have made the right bet. When I know that the bet I made was the bet to be made in that particular situation with the available info then I am satisfied because I know that I deserved to get the win, even if it doesn't go my way. How do I know it was the right bet? Well I ask myself, hypothetically, if this fight happened an infinite amount of times, would I win over 50% of times? If the answer is yes, then I am satisfied with my analysis regardless of the outcome.(that applies even to winning bets).
So in this case my picks were Pettis and Cruz. Am I satisfied with my bets? Yes because I think that both win more than 50% of the time against Alvarez and TJ.
Of course in the end the only thing that matters in terms of profit or loss is the outcome of the bet on the fight that actually happened but with this mindset you will ensure that you refine your betting skills and analytical process each and every time and that will allow you to succeed in the long run.
@Philip You'd have to ask yourself if Pettis won more than 2/3 of the time as the odds were 1.33 etc. Although I'm pretty sure you already knew this and just had a little thought-error while presenting your case. This is ultimately very hard to do though and we can only make rough questimates.
There's no guarantees when you're playing with chance, but if you just keep making +EV bets you can only run bad for so long. Allsopp has clearly proven over the years that his bets are +EV with a very nice return. This is the only thought process you should be having when considering your winnings or losses. Each bet we make were scalping the price we deserve from that bet, no matter if we win or lose. Things will even out with time.
I think many people tremendously underestimate variance, however. Being a poker professional and having played millions of hands, I've experienced worse and better variance than I ever thought was imaginable. And then even worse/better than before. The only problem I see here is that you increased your stakes and had a bad luck with the timing. That can certainly be psychologically draining, but you just need to tough it out. Experience helps. Just keep up with the bets and consider your stakes so you don't go broke when hard times come. And they will come, along with the good times.
MMA_Dog, that was an excellent post. Some really insightful, actionable ideas that will help win bets. Or maybe i'm just dense for never realizing them....
I think at odds of 1.33 you need to win more than 75.2% of the time to profit, assuming equal sized bets.
[quote quote=24894]I think at odds of 1.33 you need to win more than 75.2% of the time to profit, assuming equal sized bets.
Yep, didn't think properly there.