Darts: World Matchplay 2018
Hey Guys ?
I am thinking of running bets on the upcoming World Matchplay in a similar way to which Allsopp did the Football World Cup...
Would anyone be interested in this?
Yeah Andrew, Would love a stab at darts, looking forward to it.
Yeah! For sure
Right on, Andrew! You got good results last time , mate. Looking forward to your tips.
In sports where there are so many games it is important to be selective, and to only place bets where we have a considerable margin of value; although, I will try to place at least one bet per session; each session has four matches. We also have to go in with the assumption that players will have prepared sufficiently for the second biggest major of the year; second only to the World Championship. The strategy is a relatively simple one: in many instances if both players play to the best of their ability, there will only be one winner. In others, because the odds makers base the odds largely on rankings, the matches will be more closely contested than the odds suggest.
The first match is a good example of the first part of this strategy. If Adrian Lewis plays to 70 - 80% of his ability, James Wilson simply does not have the skills to stop him. In the image above, you can see that Adrian Lewis is superior in both scoring and checkouts, this is significant because the bigger scorer will have a greater number of chances to checkout a leg. You can also see that James Wilson has a checkout % of less than 33.33%, which means that on average, he struggles to win a leg, even with 3 darts at a double. We should also add that Adrian Lewis is more than capable of averaging well over 100, which means that James Wilson's darts at a double will be sparing; it is likely that he will have to take out large checkouts with only one dart at a double, potentially only at the bull.
Adrian Lewis is currently rising back up the rankings after poor run at the end of last year, James Wilson has had a poor year by comparison. As you can see in the image, Adrian Lewis has played 18 more games than James Wilson this year; this reflects the fact that whilst Adrian Lewis has made numerous semi-finals and finals, James Wilson has struggled to win his first and second round matches.
The first bet therefore, is £400 on Adrian Lewis to Win at odds of 1.29.
Saturday 21st: (7pm)
Adrian Lewis is my only bet in the opening session this evening. Michael van Gerwen is as usual a very heavy favourite (1.04), and it is risky to be taking big handicaps looking for value. Dave Chisnall and Michael Smith should both win their opening games, but neither are consistent enough for us to take them as moderately big favourites.
This session is one where a few opportunities turn up all at once. I believe Darren Webster will win against Steve Lennon, but for me, he is tough to bet as sometimes he just doesn't show up. I will provide live tips in the chatroom though, if I see an opportunity.
Ian White Vs Max Hopp:
On paper this one looks like it should be a close game, except that the stats for 2018 do not reflect the way in which these players have performed over the last 2-3 months. Ian White has recently won a Pro Tour Event, averaging over 100 for the tournament; Max Hopp has been averaging around 90, and in many instances in the mid 80's. As you can see in the stats below, White has played 91 games this year, compared to 67 for Hopp; White has been consistently solid, whereas Hopp has a tendency to blow hot and cold. The head to head record is a little surprising; but many of these games were contested in small events that involved a lot of travelling, and little financial reward. I do not think we should weight it particularly heavily. Overall, White should win this match through his relentlessly consistent scoring, and high checkout rate.
£300 on Ian White to Win at odds of 1.44.
Gerwen Price Vs Joe Cullen:
This one has the capacity to be a close contest. Although, recent events have for me, swung the match heavily in favour of Joe Cullen. Gerwen Price has developed an achilles injury, partly as a result of his Rugby League career before converting to darts; he has been unable to prepare properly for this tournament, as walking on a torn achilles is too strenuous. At the same time, Joe Cullen is playing the darts of his life: below are some of the performances he has produced since June.
- 6/06: Vs Kyle Anderson - (Average: 105.89) (Checkout%: 75%).
- 9/06: Vs Darius Labanauskas - (Average: 107.97) (Checkout%: 42.86%).
- 23/06: Vs Madars Razma - (Average: 105.99) (Checkout%: 60%).
I feel that at close to even odds, Joe Cullen is considerable value in this match, we are catching him on an up swing, whilst Gerwen Price is on a considerable down swing.
£100 on Joe Cullen to Win at odds of 1.91.
Daryl Gurney Vs Steve West:
At the tops of their games, Gurney is the superior scorer in this match; what lets Gurney down considerably, is that he is very inconsistent, and struggle with his nerves on pressure doubles. Steve West has got better and better on the 3 years he's been on the pro tour, and he's a difficult player to beat; he scores consistently in the mid 90's, and takes his chances when he gets them. The bookies have made Gurney is big favourite, but I don't feel that is reflective of how these two match up at all; I think it will be close and Steve West will have opportunities to crank the pressure up on Gurney.
£50 on Steve West to Win at odds of 3.00.
£400 on Adrian Lewis at 1.29 = £516
Bankroll = £1116
£300 on Ian White at 1.44 = £432
Bankroll = £1248
£100 on Joe Cullen at 1.91 = £191
Bankroll = £1339
£50 on Steve West at 3.00 = £0
Bankroll = £1289
Last night Michael van Gerwen looked completely flat, and Jeffrey de Zwaan was able to beat him in a big upset; it appears that he was suffering from jet lag, after travelling from the US to Shanghai and then back to the UK. As a result, I am unwilling to take risks on Gary Anderson and Rob Cross as big favourites when they are in the same position.
Raymond van Barneveld Vs Kyle Anderson:
With a player like Barneveld, this bet will always carry some risk, but considering he has been on holiday in America and hasn't played a competitive match in over a month, a Kyle Anderson victory here wouldn't be a surprise. Anderson has a solid game, and at his best he's is easily a top 16 player; Barney doesn't really seem interested anymore, reflecting the fact that he has played only 39 matches this year, including the Premier League.
£75 on Kyle Anderson to Win at odds of 2.75.
Unfortunately, Kyle Anderson fails to win for us; much more a case of Anderson being too inconsistent and beating himself, than of Barneveld outplaying him. Of course, this isn't so bad for us, as Barneveld now has to play Gary Anderson in round 2; meaning that we should get our money back and more on Tuesday night.
£75 on Kyle Anderson at 2.75 = £0
Bankroll = £1214
Betting Record: Won 3 - Lost 2.
World Matchplay Bankroll: £1214
Tonight's games shouldn't see too many upsets; Kim Huybrechts should beat John Henderson as the arena is very warm and Henderson is very unfit. Simon Whitlock should beat Richard North, North is making his TV debut and Whitlock is very experienced. James Wade has been playing great recently, but Jermaine Wattimena is a tricky first round draw, like Jeffrey de Zwaan, he is inconsistent, but when he's in form he's a nightmare.
Peter Wright Vs Jelle Klassen:
Unless something absolutely crazy happens here, Wright should sail through his opening round game. Over the last 18 months Klassen has been plagued by a wrist injury, this has made him very inconsistent and has a greater effect over longer matches. Klassen also struggles with the mental side of the game, he tends to get very nervous in pressure situations. As you can see below, Wright tends to average around 10 points greater than Klassen, this is a huge margin, and one I don't believe Klassen has any chance of overcoming. Wright is also the stronger finisher. This is my most confident bet of the first round, and should mean that we have made a nice little start with just over £300 profit.
£500 on Peter Wright to Win at odds of 1.20.
The first round draws to a close with a dominant Peter Wright victory; the first round of any tournament can be dicey, but we avoided the upsets and we were unlucky not to have landed a few of our value plays on Steve West and Kyle Anderson.
£500 on Peter Wright at 1.20 = £600
Bankroll = £1314
Betting Record: Won 4 - Lost 2.
The Second Round begins tomorrow at 7pm, so I will research the matches tomorrow afternoon. There has been a few under par performances so far, so I will likely keep things tight and avoid taking on too much risk.
This is exciting following this. I know nothing about darts so it’s interesting reading your write ups. I appreciate the efforts.
Im a little bit up on you cause the time difference meant I wasn’t up in time to catch your tip on Anderson