Darts: World Matchplay 2018
This is exciting following this. I know nothing about darts so it’s interesting reading your write ups. I appreciate the efforts.
Im a little bit up on you cause the time difference meant I wasn’t up in time to catch your tip on Anderson
I'm glad you're enjoying it man. It's been a good start, so hopefully we can push on and make a nice little profit for the tournament.
It's always good to miss out on the bets that lose; usually I miss out on the winners ?
Great work Andrew!
All players have different limitations; in the opening game Dave Chisnall tends to struggle to perform well against the elite players, whilst Michael Smith will miss a few doubles and become frustrated. The odds on Michael Smith at 1.36 are therefore far to steep. Jeffrey de Zwaan played amazingly to defeat Michael van Gerwen, but now the pressure increases with expectation: Will he be able to sustain that level of performance? I feel the odds are too wide here, but it's tough to know how both players will perform here, there's little value either side.
Daryl Gurney Vs Joe Cullen:
We were very unlucky to lose our £50 on Steve West to beat Daryl Gurney in Round 1. West missed 11 match darts to win that match, and at this level, you can't do that. Here, I believe Joe Cullen has the game to defeat Gurney. He's been consistently averaging in the high 90's in recent months, whilst Gurney has been lingering, by his standards, between 88-92. The head to head isn't too important here, but it will provide Cullen with confidence; he's beaten him before, therefore, he can do it again. Cullen's average wasn't exceptional in Round 1 at 91, but he wasn't pushed, he eased through 10-3; yet, Gurney was caught up in a dog fight, and could only muster an 89 average, which indicates that he's not confident in his game and feeling flat. The doubling from both was very good in the First Round, and that may be were this game is won and lost; if Cullen can take the chances his scoring will create, he will put Gurney under pressure, and that will open up more and more chances.
£100 on Joe Cullen to Win at odds of 2.30.
Gary Anderson Vs Raymond van Barneveld:
This match is a case of one player being at the top of his game, whilst the other has under-practised and out of sorts. Raymond van Barneveld was gifted the game by Kyle Anderson in Round 1, he didn't go out and win it, with only a 90 average, he was forced to take out big pressure checkouts. This strategy will just not be effective against Gary Anderson, he consistently averages between 95 and 105, meaning that Barneveld needs to increase his average by 5 to even stay with in touching distance of Anderson's scoring power. The checkouts were a little shaky early on for Anderson, but in the two days he's had off, he will likely have put that right. I feel that for Barneveld to in this game he is going to have to consistently take out over 100+ finishes, and there is only so many times you can land a Hail Mary.
£350 on Gary Anderson to Win at odds of 1.30.
Watching the First Round provides us with a good indication of how players are performing; in the Second Round we can use that information to gain and edge in Live Betting. Tonight we were able to get two nice Live Bets in:
£50 on Dave Chisnall at 2.62 = £131
Profit = £81
£150 on Gary Anderson at 1.61 = £241.50
Profit = £91.50
Total Profit = £172.50
We also cashed both Pre-match Bets:
£100 on Joe Cullen at 2.30 = £230
Profit = £130
£350 on Gary Anderson at 1.30 = £455
Profit = £105
Total Profit = £235
Tuesday Profit = £407.50
World Matchplay Bankroll = £1721.50
Betting Record: Won 8 - Lost 2.
Tournament Profit = £721.50
Mood right now...
Tonight is a tougher selection of matches. James Wade and Simon Whitlock didn't really perform as they can in the first round, so it is really tough to read where either are with their game right now; I would lean Wade, but with little confidence. Mensur Suljovic looked very good in his first round game, he was consistent and savage on the checkouts, whilst Ian White scored extremely well, but fumbled too many doubles; this one could be good for live betting, if Ian White has sorted that out in his days off. Rob Cross will likely have that little bit too much for Darren Webster, but odds of 1.22 are so disrespectful to Darren; he is a quality player, and I wouldn't go anywhere near those kind of odds.
Peter Wright Vs Kim Huybrechts:
I feel that the odds here are far too wide, and money has come in on Kim Huybrechts to topple the World Number 2. The positive for us with the bookmakers setting wide odds in these situations is that it inflates the odds in the (Over-Under) and (Handicap) markets. Yet, the difference between a Money Line bet, and a handicap bet is astronomical; the pressure completely alters the complexion. Peter Wright is not quite at the standard he produced last year, he tends to average around 90-95, but he does hit the right shots at the right time, and this ability see's him win games whilst being the inferior player in particular matches. Kim Huybrechts played exceptionally well in Round 1; at one stage he was averaging about 130, which is by far the highest we've seen so far. As you can see below, Peter and Kim have had a few close encounters in recent years, with Wright showing that little bit more composure in high pressure situations:
- 02/12/12: Players Championship - Huybrechts 10-6 Wright.
- 21/07/13: World Matchplay - Wright 10-4 Huybrechts.
- 25/10/14: European Championship - Wright 10-5 Huybrechts.
- 18/07/15: World Matchplay - Wright 10-5 Huybrechts.
- 31/10/15: European Championship - Wright 10-8 Huybrechts.
- 21/11/16: Players Championship Finals - Wright 10-9 Huybrechts.
Kim will also know that he has the game to win here, he has a good record against Wright, winning 3 out of there last 5 meeting; including there most recent match in June. I believe this game has the potential to go all the way, because neither are easy to break, and Huybrechts looks to be the stronger scorer at this particular moment in time.
£100 on (Kim Huybrechts - +3.5 Handicap) at odds of 1.72.
We placed two live bets tonight:
£50 on Ian White at 3.00 = £0
Loss = £50
£300 on Rob Cross at 1.25 = £0
Loss = £300
Total Loss = £350
We also placed a Pre-match Bet:
£100 on (Kim Huybrechts - +3.5 Handicap) at 1.72 = £0
Loss = £100
Total Loss = £100
Wednesday Loss = £450
We held strong positions based on the information available to us in all three matches. Ian White failed to capitalise on the inconsistency that Mensur Suljovic displayed; he had ample opportunities to get a foothold in the match. Peter Wright produced a level of performance that he hasn't shown in well over 12 months; and at the same time, Kim Huybrechts played extremely well, he averaged over 100 for the large majority of the match; we bet Kim because we believed that he was capable of producing that standard in this match, but we were caught out by a performance from Wright that he had showed little indication he was able to produce. The real blow for us was our bet on Rob Cross; all the research and studying in the world would produce the exact same conclusion, that Rob Cross is extremely consistent at checkouts, and also hits close to a 100 average. Whilst Darren Webster tends to lose his composure in pressure situations which has prevented him ever coming close to a major title in the sport. Rob Cross hit a 99 average, but the exact opposite of what we would expect occurred, Cross missed his shots at double time and time again, and Webster remained calm under pressure.
World Matchplay Bankroll = £1271.50
Betting Record: Won 8 - Lost 5.
Profit = £271.50
Tonight was extremely disappointing, we have taken a few Haye makers, but it is important to remember that we are still in profit. We have to continue to take the valuable positions that we can find.
No bet this evening guys. I feel that the Jeffrey de Zwaan Vs Dave Chisnall match has the capacity to go close, Chisnall tends to start slow and then pick it up in the middle phase of a match, so this one may be good live, if we can spot a momentum swing. Of course, I like Gary Anderson, but at odds of 1.16, there is little value there. The good thing for us is that Anderson likes to take the early stages of a match off, play himself in and then crank the pressure up on his opponent with relentless scoring... So we may get a chance to bet Anderson live at some decent odds.
We bounced back well tonight after a disappointing end to the Second Round. We placed two live bets:
£100 on Jeffrey de Zwaan at 1.83 = £183
Profit = £83
£75 on Gary Anderson at 1.72 = £129
Profit = £54
Total Profit = £137
World Matchplay Bankroll = £1408.50
Betting Record: Won 10 - Lost 5.
Tournament Profit = £408.50
Peter Wright Vs Simon Whitlock:
In many ways this bet is similar to out bet on Gary Anderson against Raymond van Barneveld. It's a case of the superior player in the match up looking more in form, stronger under pressure, and like they really want to win.
I wasn’t sold on Peter Wright coming into this tournament; he hasn’t looked like the player that reached numerous major finals last year for most of 2018. That said, he shows up when he needs to, and against Kim Huybrechts he needed to. A 105.60 average and 50% checkout rate is as good a performance as you will see. With Wright showing this level of form coming into the tournament, I feel that this game is easier than against Huybrechts; Whitlock has played OK, but he hasn’t really faced anyone capable of outplaying him so far, and in a nip and tuck affair against James Wade, you’d expect far more than a 94 average and less than 30% on the doubles.
Over the longer format, Wright will have more legs in which his scoring will produce chances, and the more chances he gets, the more he will pull away from Whitlock. I feel that he comes out of this one a comfortable winner.
£350 on Peter Wright to Win at odds of 1.30.
Mensur Suljovic Vs Darren Webster:
Darren Webster hit the jackpot in defeating Rob Cross in the First Round, he scored consistently well, and took the chances he was offered. Mensur Suljovic played fairly well, but he seems to have lulls were the inconsistency in his game begins to worry him; in many instances in the match against Ian White, he seems to completely lose his range on the Treble 20. So far Webster has been the more convincing player, he's looked very strong on throw, and this is key to winning a darts match; he's also been aggressive on his opponents throw, pursuing a break of his own. I feel that the longer format will suit Webster in this match, as he appears to be more at ease with his game; if Suljovic has a poor session, Webster will be there to capitalise.
£50 on Darren Webster to Win at odds of 3.20.
£350 on Peter Wright at 1.30 = £455
Profit = £105
£50 on Darren Webster at 3.20 = £0
Loss = £50
Total Profit = £55
World Matchplay Bankroll = £1463.50
Betting Record: Won 11 - Lost 6.
Tournament Profit = £463.50
Peter Wright Vs Mensur Suljovic:
Mensur Suljovic has been a real pain for me this tournament; he's looked a bit sketchy throughout, but when he's against the ropes he comes back throwing bombs, and you have to respect that. Although, I feel very confident that this match will be a step too far for Mensur. Peter Wright is playing some unbelievable darts; as you can see below, his checkout % is insane: (Second Round: 50%; Quarter Final: 76%). You don't see a performance like that very often, and I don't feel that Mensur can score heavily enough to stop Wright having chances throughout the match. I think we are going to see the best Peter Wright tonight, and he'll have that bit too much for Mensur Suljovic.
£300 on Peter Wright to Win at odds of 1.44.
Unfortunately Peter Wright failed to show up for us, after playing terrific stuff all week.
£300 on Peter Wright at 1.44 = £0
Loss = £300
Total Loss = £300
I won't be placing any bets on the final as I believe Gary Anderson will win, but he's a massive favourite going in. It is a better idea to take the little bit of profit we have made into the next tournament, and hope we do better next time.
World Matchplay Bankroll = £1163.50
Betting Record: Won 11 - Lost 7.
Tournament Profit = £163.50