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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
01/08/2016 11:33 pm  

Hey everybody,

Hope you're having a good day.

After July's terrible run of results I've decided to open the Live Betting Tips back up to everyone.

This means that all VIP Members that pay for a subscription by Credit / Debit card will now be able to access the Live Betting Tips at no extra cost for every UFC event. I will keep the Live Betting Tips open to VIP Members until we have at least recovered from the losses sustained in 2016.

This offer will not work if you still pay for your VIP Membership through Paypal. If you want to view the Live Betting Tips you'll have to cancel your Paypal subscription and sign up again. You can find out how to cancel your Paypal subscription on our FAQ page:

https://mmabettingtips.com/faq/

I also wanted to talk to you guys about how I am feeling about the losses we're sustaining on prefight bets...

I don't really know what to say at the moment. I am consistently tweaking our strategy in order to adapt to the changes we've seen in the sport this year, but everytime we seem to take 1 step forward, we then take 2 steps back. The last 2 weeks are a good example of this. We went 5-1 on bets in the lead up to UFC 201 and then Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler lost, which wiped out the progress that we had made in recent weeks.

I won't continue to keep the website open for too much longer if the losses continue, but I believe that we are consistently placing good bets, which means our results have to turn around soon.

To give you guys an idea of one of the reasons why we're struggling so bad this year...

Between 2008 and 2015 the underdog would only win around 3 out of 10 times in main event fights. If there was a title on the line, the underdog would only win around 1 in 10 times.

In the last 7 months since the beginning of the year, the underdog has won around 8 out of 10 times in main event fights.

This is obviously a huge shift in historical probabilities and one of the reasons why we have had such a bad period of variance to our results.

Right now this is how I am feeling about our current situation...

The Reebok deal and USADA have shaken up the sport and it's cost us a lot of money this year. Not all of our losses can be blamed on USADA, but the changes to drug testing and weight cutting has certainly had a big impact on the consistency of fighters.

Variance is normal in gambling, but I've been betting on MMA for a long time and I've never experienced a period of variance that was as bad as this.

This is how I am rationalizing our current run of results on pre fights bets...

When you play Roulette, the ball will land on black roughly 50% of the time and the ball land on red about 50% of the time if you spin the wheel over a large enough sample size. BUT... We see short term variance in Roulette all the time...

If you've ever played Roulette, you'll know that sometimes the ball might land on Black 15 times in a row. Eventually this will balance out if you keep spinning the wheel enough times, but in the short term you're going to lose a lot of money if you keep betting on Black. There's no way you'd win 50% of the time if you only played within that short period of crazy results.

I believe that the bad results we're experiencing right now are due to a crazy period of unpredictable madness that will eventually calm down and go back to the way it was for the 8 years prior to January 2016.

In the past I have heard about Pro Gamblers having entire years where they would make a loss and I never thought that it was possible, but now I know that it absolutely is. There's no doubt that I've made some mistakes this year, but for the most part I feel like we're consistently placing good bets and consistently being punished for it.

My old Poker mentor told me that no matter how bad a losing streak gets, if you keep making the right decisions, you will always make money in the long term.

I understand that people don't like losing. I hate it myself, but it's just something that you have to get used to when you gamble. I have played a lot of online poker of the years, so our current situation doesn't bother me that much. It's frustrating, but I know I have the knowledge and ability to ride out the storm. Whether you want to come with me on that journey is up to you, but I do hope that the Live Betting Tips will help you rebuild your bankrolls and get back the money that you have lost this year.

From this Saturday at UFC Fight Night 92, the Live Betting Tips will go back to the way they were before.

If you are a VIP Member and pay for your subscription by Credit / Debit card, you just need to go to the Live Betting Tips page and the Live Betting Tips Chat Box will appear like it did before.

Let me know if you have any questions. I hope that this will go some way towards making up for the disaster of the year that we have had so far.

I love you guys. I'm really looking forward to getting us back on track! :good:


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SlopppyDirtybird
(@sloppy2ndz)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 264
02/08/2016 5:31 am  

Lets get that $$$ allsop! onwards n upwards


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 Anonymous
Joined: 51 years ago
Posts: 0
02/08/2016 9:50 am  

....And why is your avatar not this picture yet 40? One month buddy #MakeAmericaGreatAgain https://www.google.com/search?q=donald+trump&biw=1366&bih=643&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&sqi=2&ved=0ahUKEwiR0fPSnqLOAhVC0GMKHWz3Bk4Q_AUIBygC#imgrc=R12gMijOMe7_TM%3A :yahoo:


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Rasid
(@rasid)
White Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 3
02/08/2016 12:10 pm  

My tips for today's matches of Champions League are:
Ludogorets - 2.
BATE - 2.
Dinamo Zagreb - 2.

I prefer big bookies and on platform who provide service of big bookies - mollybet, I found odds for these matches:
Ludogorets - @3.07.
Bate - @1.91
Dinamo Zagreb - @2.29.
Go hard and beat bookies! B-)


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seusicha
(@seusicha)
Purple Belt
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 43
02/08/2016 3:16 pm  

Hello Allsopp, how are you?

I think it's cool that you are trying to recovers the money for every VIP member on the website. That just shows how much you care about the people here.

Let me ask you something. I'm a VIP member and my subscription is trough paypal. Since I'm an old member, I still pay $9.99 for it. If cancel my paypal subscription and subscribe again, will I still pay the same ammount?

Thank you!


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Puczi
(@puczi)
Flyweight Champion Customer
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 331
02/08/2016 3:35 pm  

Great to hear that, thanks.

Definitely this year was crazy, mostly because of USADA.

I think the things have changed and we should change too - risk is the subsistent part of betting. And I think we should be more brave about our picks. Usually following your leans was better for me than taking your safe bets at low odds. And I think taking higher risk bets is better for us. Why?

Maths gives 2 reasons:

1. Long term
2. Implied probability

Long term is comparable to bigger amount of bets - you have big knowledge of this sport. Therefore more "quite confident" bets is better, than a few "safe" bets. If you have knowledge, then it's easier to win 70 out of 100 bets, than 7 out of 10.

Implied probability is a thing everybody must consider. I think we should bet fighters, who we expect to lose (of course i dont mean 90%-10% chances, but like 30%-70% is okay in long term). If we think our guy will lose, it doesn't mean he will. Also, fighters don't care if we think they will win or lose. Usually when I liked some fighter's chances and you agreed with me I was winning. Just remind yourself of Nogueira, Nate Diaz vs MJ, Koch, Ferreira, etc, etc.

What do you think about braver picks? Maybe changing strategy should help us? I just cannot believe a guy with your betting and mma knowledge is on a losing streak. You need more faith in your guts and I think it will be better for you. Cheers.


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nikitagraves
(@nikitagraves)
Brown Belt
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 78
03/08/2016 8:38 am  

I was originally going to subscribe with the live tips, but as of right now I'm going to let my subscription end. I respect your results in the past but I just don't agree with the current betting strategy, regardless of recent results.

I know USADA has been changing some fighters performances but there is too many bets I just don't agree with regardless. Such as 10 units on Silva, an old fighter who had serious injury and was suspended for drugs and out for a year, and looked bad against diaz. Also I dont agree with a high unit strategy, almost no pro bettors I have encountered encourage past 5 units EVER even in easy winners. Also I feel there is lots of value in underdog picks, which I haven't seen one underdog pick win since I have subscribed, except jake collier.

Every other tipster service I have encountered is still making profit this year. (thefightpredictor, fury's fight picks, mmadawgs) so I don't think just variance is the issue, its the betting strategy.

Also, the live bets have not been too great since I started recently, and since I can only use bet365 I miss half of them anyway if they are on early prelim or even regular prelims lately.

anyway just my thoughts, I will stick around here and there for discussion and I hope things turn around, i will consider subscribing in the future at some point.


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Rasid
(@rasid)
White Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 3
03/08/2016 11:44 am  

Hi everybody, do you have tips for today's matches of Champions League?
I found good odds of mollybet, you can see odds on the link below...
https://postimg.org/image/4rqm7czhl/
We can go together and beat the bookies!


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