Live betting versus...
 

Live betting versus pre fight betting  

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ScaredJoe
(@scaredjoe)
White Belt
Joined: 1 month ago
Posts: 4
27/01/2020 12:48 pm  

I just joined, but it seems to me Live betting looks more profitable than prefight betting. Is that correct? And why is that?

 

Is it because in game action provides much more answers about crucial factors, than prefight analysis does? And having a prepared list of questionable factors, one can beat the market because a) the market has less preparation? b) there is lazy money left on betfair type exchanges which do not act upon live events? c) Given there is a bigger spread on live bets, bookies have less incentive to be competing for correct odds?

 

Just dipping in sportsbetting. I have done it for years as a big dog. Combined with my interest in mma, poker and analysing, considering where to look for edge in this scene.


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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 3218
27/01/2020 1:06 pm  

Hey Joe,

Hope you're having a good day mate.

Live Betting is much more profitable than prefight betting because when you bet Live you can see exactly how the fighters are performing before you commit your money to them.

If you spend a lot of time researching MMA you'll see that fighters perform significantly differently a MASSIVE percentage of the time to how they have in the past. This makes it extremely difficult to predict the outcome of a fight before it takes place because you never know which version of a fighter is going to show up.

If you'd like to see exactly what I am talking about, you'll find a great example of this from this past weekend at UFC on ESPN+ 24. Go and watch Lucie Pudilova's fight against Irene Aldana. Then go and watch her performance this past weekend against Justine Kish. It's like looking at a COMPLETELY different person. If you would have bet Pudilova, there's no way that you could have predicted she'd perform like that. 

Also remember that most fighters don't get paid that much, so they'll often have to fight injured which can effect their performance . Maybe they are forced to fight to get a paycheck. They may also have bad weight cuts, personal issues etc that we don't know about. All these things can effect how they perform.

Another problem is that in order to reach the highest level of anything in life you've got to be really good at learning from your mistakes. Fighters are on a continual journey of self improvement. This makes it hard to predict the outcome of fights because you can't account for fighters showing up with new skills or tactics we haven't seen from them before.

A good example of this from this past weekend is the fight between Michael Chiesa and Rafael Dos Anjos. If you go back and watch Chiesa's recent fights you'll see that he often gives up position chasing longshot submissions. He didn't do this on Saturday and instead favoured position and control.

You got to remember that when you are researching fights, the athletes and coaches will also be studying the same footage to find weaknesses in their opponents they can exploit and also areas in which they can improve. This means that you may be basing your predictions on aspects of the fight that won't play a factor because fighters have either tightened up specific weaknesses and developed new skills that they haven't displayed before. 

It doesn't matter how much you know about the sport or how much work you put in, prefight betting is an absolute minefield. You can definitely make a profit on it, but the swings can be brutal and most people aren't prepared for that. It can be very mentally difficult to deal with the losing streaks and variance. The upside is that it's much easier to get big money down on prefight bets than Livebets. 

I hope that answers your questions.

Let me know if you need anymore information.

 

This post was modified 1 month ago 2 times by Allsopp

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ScaredJoe
(@scaredjoe)
White Belt
Joined: 1 month ago
Posts: 4
27/01/2020 5:41 pm  

Great answers! I feel like there is some mental model to build there. Sort of coming up with scales and constructs to deduce information loss when discussing and critiquing.

 

Two questions: How does nationality of a fighter impact the odds. Especially fighters coming from a smaller region fighting on undercards. Because of the liquidity of a market is constrained when a fight is not very popular and therefore a fanbase has more impact. And coming from a region with not much support, that would maybe translate in too much blind fan betting?

 

Second question: The phrase you are as good as your last performance is heard a lot in mma. What is the regression to the mean effect in general? 

 

 


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ScaredJoe
(@scaredjoe)
White Belt
Joined: 1 month ago
Posts: 4
29/01/2020 12:01 pm  

Also was wondering if there is a specific reason to research fights in the same fightweek? If you have a quick glance on the movement of odds after they open, most movements are in the beginning. This suggests the most edge is to have in this moment?

Why not research fights before odds have opened; Vilante vs Rothwell seems very researchable!


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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 3218
29/01/2020 9:34 pm  
Posted by: @scaredjoe

Great answers! I feel like there is some mental model to build there. Sort of coming up with scales and constructs to deduce information loss when discussing and critiquing.

 

Two questions: How does nationality of a fighter impact the odds. Especially fighters coming from a smaller region fighting on undercards. Because of the liquidity of a market is constrained when a fight is not very popular and therefore a fanbase has more impact. And coming from a region with not much support, that would maybe translate in too much blind fan betting?

 

Second question: The phrase you are as good as your last performance is heard a lot in mma. What is the regression to the mean effect in general? 

 

 

I've never really thought about how the nationality of fighters may impact the odds. In my experience I'm not sure it has any impact at all.

I think that there's no easy response to your second question other than "it depends". The age of a fighter and the nature of a fighters last performance can have a big impact on how they perform after that. For example fighters are often more passive and gunshy after coming back after a brutal KO. Performances can also be effected by layoffs, injuries etc. There's so much to consider. There is no simple answer to this question.


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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 3218
29/01/2020 9:38 pm  
Posted by: @scaredjoe

Also was wondering if there is a specific reason to research fights in the same fightweek? If you have a quick glance on the movement of odds after they open, most movements are in the beginning. This suggests the most edge is to have in this moment?

Why not research fights before odds have opened; Vilante vs Rothwell seems very researchable!

There are two sides to this.

In theory, the earlier you can research the fights the better because odds are often wildly inaccurate when odds first get released. Problem is, the bookies know this so they set super low maxbet limits. For example... If you tried to bet Villante vs Rothwell right now you'd struggle to get even a few Hundred down on that fight. Bookies also don't like you exploiting inaccurate odds, so this would also accelerate the rate at which your account gets closed.

So yes, in theory, researching and betting fights early is the optimum thing to do in a perfect world. But bookies know this, so it's very hard to make any kind of substantial profit from doing it. You're much better off waiting until fightweek when liquidity and max bet limits have built up to the point where they can absorb your bets.

Also... In my personal circumstances, I am just one man. I work crazy hours. During periods of the year when we have back to back UFCs every week, along with multiple smaller promotions like KSW, PFL, Bellator etc, I barely have enough time to wash myself, to sleep and to eat, let alone have to worry about researching fights that take place weeks or months in advance.

It's a really long process to research fights properly and for me there just are not enough hours in the day. I am constantly working.


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ScaredJoe
(@scaredjoe)
White Belt
Joined: 1 month ago
Posts: 4
29/01/2020 10:04 pm  

Thanks for your answers! They make a lot of sense.


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