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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
17/05/2015 8:24 pm  

[quote quote=15638]What do you guys think of Josh Burkman? I think he will destroy Dong Hung Kim. We saw how calm he was against Hector. He has a iron chin and and solid takedown. Kim’s last few fights have been pretty lame. He will swing forward like crazy again and get countered. [/quote]

I think that this fight is a lot closer to a pickem than the odds suggest, but I don't know if I like Burkman enough to consider a bet on him.

I think he could absolutely KTFO Kim, but at the same time he lost to Steve Carl just a couple of fights ago and Carl is not good.


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Iamcloud
(@iamcloud)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 285
17/05/2015 9:29 pm  

[quote quote=15640]

<div class="d4p-bbt-quote-title">Iamcloud wrote:</div>
What do you guys think of Josh Burkman? I think he will destroy Dong Hung Kim. We saw how calm he was against Hector. He has a iron chin and and solid takedown. Kim’s last few fights have been pretty lame. He will swing forward like crazy again and get countered.

I think that this fight is a lot closer to a pickem than the odds suggest, but I don’t know if I like Burkman enough to consider a bet on him.

I think he could absolutely KTFO Kim, but at the same time he lost to Steve Carl just a couple of fights ago and Carl is not good.
[/quote]

Thanks for the input mate. Appreciate it. Burkman seemed really off against Carl. I think if Kim decides to charge carelessly forward like last few fights he will get KO'd..


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Yad
 Yad
(@yad)
Featherweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 620
17/05/2015 11:25 pm  

[quote quote=15630]yes: “fools rush in.”

I might be tempted to say “hey, I’m on a roll” and be careless.
but I’m only hot because of good matchups and picking them judiciously.
when I start not picking judiciously anymore, I’m opening myself up to losing all I’ve worked for.

I’m definitely playing small on this next event.

—–
Yad, I made a tiny little parlay (like a little lottery ticket) on Vitor + Moraga @ (+2100)
[/quote]

Outch that's lottery for real bro! I really don't give much chance to Moraga, i feel Benavidez will destroy him, i'm not even sure he can make it to the 3rd rd. :scratch: but i wish you good luck :good: just in case some crazy things happens.
But i can understand there's no value at all on Benavidez at these odds...


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Hugo
 Hugo
(@hugocrm)
Welterweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1029
18/05/2015 12:05 am  

My bets for now:
10 units parlay benavidez and cerrone to win 5
1.5 unit VB by ko to win 7.5
1.5 unit sapo by decision to win 5.5

I,m still waiting @allsopp Tips.


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Jesse
(@jesse)
Welterweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1252
18/05/2015 12:23 am  

Im doing round robin parlays of these 6, plus r.r combos of 5,4,and 3 between the same guys....goin in for the kill here

Hall
dodson
benevidez
brown
weidman
cerrone


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Yad
 Yad
(@yad)
Featherweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 620
18/05/2015 12:33 am  

Just added 1 more unit on Cerrone+Hall at 1.70, so now it's 2units on this parlay.


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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
18/05/2015 12:39 am  

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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
18/05/2015 12:39 am  

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 Anonymous
Joined: 51 years ago
Posts: 0
18/05/2015 12:54 am  

[quote quote=15647]Im doing round robin parlays of these 6, plus r.r combos of 5,4,and 3 between the same guys….goin in for the kill here

Hall
dodson
benevidez
brown
weidman
cerrone
[/quote]

the Round Robin is just about my least favourite thing in betting.
IMO the Math is Unfavourable.

I prefer to make my combinations Manually (on paper first).

-----
BUT BEST OF LUCK 🙂


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JIBBBY
(@jibbby)
Black Belt
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 102
18/05/2015 2:56 am  

This is the best UFC card of the year by far.. So stacked from top to bottom.. Enjoy fellas cause it doesn't get any better then this!!! B-)


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 Anonymous
Joined: 51 years ago
Posts: 0
18/05/2015 4:23 am  

To the dude betting 30 percent of his bankroll on covington…DO YOU KNOW WHO MIKE PYLE IS!!!?? Ok so he got ko'd by jordan mein and matt brown..I honestly think that mein will be a contender in the next few years and well matt brown is a beast..covington did not impress me at all in his last fight everyone thought he was guna run through that guy and that wasn't the case..pyle loses to guys with heavy hands, covington is really just an amazing wrestler ..now if the line was at evens maybe you could make a case, maybe.. but man I got my money on the mullet @Toby i just wish he was still fighting that scrub spencer 🙁


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Toby
 Toby
(@toby)
Purple Belt
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 21
18/05/2015 5:50 am  

[quote quote=15628]5 or 6 mounth ago i placed a 1.5units bet on Vitor Belford at 4.60, i don’t know where is the post on the forum now, but in sumary i was saying this: If Vitor Belford line goes ove 4.50 i beleive he deserve a little bet. I think even without TRT Belford will stay dangerous, and will probably come well prepared after almost 2 years of camp for weidman. I think the he had more than enought time to adapt to off TRT, to use other medication to help him elevate his natural Testo and he should be in shape(not like before but enought to fight). I beleive Vitor is really upset of all the bad talk on him, and the way peoples are counting him out, he’s a proud man and he want to prove to the world them wrong.

Today with all the cancelations and repports of the fight, my bet have been cancelled long time ago. That good for me because now Vitor’s line is at 5.15!

My feeling is still the same today, i think Belford got a little more chance than what the line indicate and i will wait a little bit to see the evolution and place at least 1units on him at the best price.

What do you think guys??

[/quote]

Great points mate. Agree completely and have been planning going small on Belfort since the lines opened. It's one of those bets where there is a chance it will look bad if Weidman just dominates Belfort. But there are enough unknowns that a small stab on a big underdog who is working his ass off and will be as determined as ever is justified.


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Toby
 Toby
(@toby)
Purple Belt
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Posts: 21
18/05/2015 5:52 am  

[quote quote=15654]To the dude betting 30 percent of his bankroll on covington…DO YOU KNOW WHO MIKE PYLE IS!!!?? Ok so he got ko’d by jordan mein and matt brown..I honestly think that mein will be a contender in the next few years and well matt brown is a beast..covington did not impress me at all in his last fight everyone thought he was guna run through that guy and that wasn’t the case..pyle loses to guys with heavy hands, covington is really just an amazing wrestler ..now if the line was at evens maybe you could make a case, maybe.. but man I got my money on the mullet @Toby i just wish he was still fighting that scrub spencer :([/quote]

Sorry I wasn't more clear about my plan with this fight. I can already back out of the bet anytime I want by betting Pyle at +227 on Pinnacle (I got Covington at -225). I am waiting for the Pyle line to go to like +300 and then I will bet a commensurate amount on him so that no matter who wins I can't lose money.


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ziggy
(@ziggy)
Blue Belt
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 5
18/05/2015 12:51 pm  

This is Johnson's time. He is too fast too powerful and his conditioning has improved. Phil Davis is one of the best wrestlers in the division and Rumble was able to stuff all his takedowns and outstrike him . 2units straight up on Rumble.


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Yad
 Yad
(@yad)
Featherweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 620
18/05/2015 3:59 pm  

[quote quote=15654]To the dude betting 30 percent of his bankroll on covington…DO YOU KNOW WHO MIKE PYLE IS!!!?? Ok so he got ko’d by jordan mein and matt brown..I honestly think that mein will be a contender in the next few years and well matt brown is a beast..covington did not impress me at all in his last fight everyone thought he was guna run through that guy and that wasn’t the case..pyle loses to guys with heavy hands, covington is really just an amazing wrestler ..now if the line was at evens maybe you could make a case, maybe.. but man I got my money on the mullet @Toby i just wish he was still fighting that scrub spencer :([/quote]

I with you on this one ScottyH, :good: i'll probably put Pyle in my best dogs for this card... Along with Belford for sure. Covington is good but it's nothing new for Pyle who's been there with the best. In the last 5 years (Pyle's last 13fight) he only lost 4 time and to top level guys; J.Ellenberger, R.Mcdonald, Matt brown, and J.Mein! Pyle will have the experience advantage, the size+reach+striking advantage and the hometown advantage.

I could see some value at this point at 3.27 or more...

I know every body will tell me he's old, Convigton is a talented propect from ATT, & blablabla... But i'll tell you this: don't count Pyle out at all in that bout! because some may lose money like in a joke by taking Covington as a lock. at least pass&Relax, but becareful if you want to play it.

N.B: just for the numbers Pyle is the only Underdog on this card that is Ranked much, much higher than is opponent in the worldwide rankings by Weighclasses.


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