UFC 203 Betting - M...
 
Notifications
Clear all

UFC 203 Betting - Miocic vs Overeem  

Page 1 / 5
  RSS

Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
06/06/2016 12:57 am  

UFC 203 Betting - Miocic vs OvereemUFC 203 Betting - Miocic vs Overeem

UFC 203 Betting - Miocic vs Overeem


Quote
Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
17/07/2016 1:19 pm  

UFC 203 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions


ReplyQuote
nikitagraves
(@nikitagraves)
Brown Belt
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 78
22/08/2016 7:28 am  

Seems like not much discussion on this event yet.

I already have a few units on Overeem as a +120 dog.
I believe he has all the advantages to beat stipe except he is a little chinny. However he has shown better composure in his recent fights. I also believe almost any HW underdog has value due to the nature of the division. Not every case, but in this one yes.

However I think Werdum is the logical bet against Browne. Browne is not taking his fights strategic at this point, I think he has resigned to being a gatekeeper after that devastating loss to Cain. Werdum has tasted the belt and handily beat Browne the first time. 1.5 odds is decent value.

I am also considering a bet on CM Punk. This is a good example where the handicapping by oddsmakers is based on very little, Gall has 2 pro fights, and really, can anyone call his UFC debut a fight? That was a showcase to give him a win before this fight. A complete joke of a fight. He clearly has skills and youth.
But let's look at the psychological factor. CM Punk has a career of being in the spotlight. Pro wrestling is still an intense workout so his cardio will be legit. Gall will be significantly more nervous than Punk in this situation. CM Punk will have real wrestling skills which will help him a lot. We will see what his striking will be. But he can definitely win and I think +265 is absolutely worth it.


ReplyQuote
MMAboxingJUNKIE26
(@mmafan26)
Black Belt Customer
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 119
02/09/2016 4:24 pm  

Does anyone know where Browne trained at for his first fight with Werdum? Was he at Jackson-wink MMA at the time?


ReplyQuote
JohnnySins
(@bookiekilla)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 499
04/09/2016 6:56 am  

[quote quote=30301]Does anyone know where Browne trained at for his first fight with Werdum? Was he at Jackson-wink MMA at the time?

[/quote]

Yeah I think you're right. He left a few months after that fight and moved to Glendale fight club.


ReplyQuote
JohnnySins
(@bookiekilla)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 499
04/09/2016 8:53 pm  

Who do you guys like?

Werdum is the only bet that I like thus far.

And maybe 1 unit bets on CM Punk and Rivera.


ReplyQuote
Jesse
(@jesse)
Welterweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1252
05/09/2016 3:14 am  

are you betting on cm punk cause you think there will be fishiness? logic to me says hes going to get dropped and subbed


ReplyQuote
JohnnySins
(@bookiekilla)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 499
05/09/2016 7:27 am  

Logic to me says he'll lose. But I'm betting with my heart and not my head ?


ReplyQuote
Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
05/09/2016 10:37 am  

[quote quote=30201]
I am also considering a bet on CM Punk. This is a good example where the handicapping by oddsmakers is based on very little, Gall has 2 pro fights, and really, can anyone call his UFC debut a fight? That was a showcase to give him a win before this fight. A complete joke of a fight. He clearly has skills and youth.
But let’s look at the psychological factor. CM Punk has a career of being in the spotlight. Pro wrestling is still an intense workout so his cardio will be legit. Gall will be significantly more nervous than Punk in this situation. CM Punk will have real wrestling skills which will help him a lot. We will see what his striking will be. But he can definitely win and I think +265 is absolutely worth it.
[/quote]

Hey Nikita,

I just wanted to throw in my two cents about this fight because I have much different opinions to you on where CM Punk is at right now.

Before anyone bets on CM Punk, I strongly recommend that you watch every episode of his show on UFC Fight Pass. I have been posting each of the videos in this thread.

As you can see from the sparring footage, CM Punk has no takedown defence, no ground game and he can't throw a punch. The amateur fighter he sparred with took him down at will and toyed with him on the ground. That footage was recorded back in January 2015 and since then CM Punk has had to recover from a shoulder injury. How much could he really have improved his technique since then?

Mickey Gall is only 2-0, but he has got a combined MMA record of 5-0 if you include his amateur record. Those are 5 more fights than CM Punk has at this stage in his career. The amount of real life experience that Gall will have gained during those 5 fights will drawf any previous combat experience that Gall has managed to obtain in the gym.

Furthermore...

The video shows that CM Punk is completely helpless on the ground and Mickey Gall has a base in Jiu Jitsu. Gall is relatively new to MMA, but he has been training Jiu Jitsu for a long time and has competed in several tournaments. Below is footage of Gall holding his own in a competitive BJJ tournament against Gordon Ryan. Gordon Ryan is a decent grappler, from the way Gall is moving on the ground I am confident that he will be able to dominate and submit CM Punk very quickly if the fight goes to the ground. Take a look and see for yourself:

History has taught us that you can't play games in the Octagon and it has also taught us that you're screwed if you aren't competent in BJJ. CM Punk has a very low level ground game and Gall clearly knows what he is doing on the ground. How do you think Punk will avoid getting submitted?

You also said that:

Pro wrestling is still an intense workout so his cardio will be legit.

This is just not true. It's actually the complete opposite. CM Punk will never have experienced the kind of shape he will need to be in to stay competitive in an MMA fight for 15 minutes.

The cardio you need to stay competitive for 15 minutes in an MMA fight is in another Universe to the cardio you'd need to perform in a Pro Wrestling match. No sport in the world is as taxing on the body as MMA. In MMA, you are essentially sprinting for 15 minutes whilst being punched in the face.

You also said

CM Punk will have real wrestling skills which will help him a lot.

Again this is not true. CM Punk will not have real wrestling skills. CM Punk is an entertainer who started in Pro Wrestling as an entertainer. He is not like Brock Lesnar or Kurt Angle who had a background in NCAA level wrestling. Brock Lesnar and Kurt Angle are legit wrestlers, CM Punk is not.

CM Punk has no wrestling base to work from and no history of performing at a high level in any sport. CM Punk's wrestling will be super low level. There's a HUGE difference between being a wrestler in the WWE like CM Punk and being a legit wrestler from a high school wrestling background like Brock Lesnar. It's completely different.

It's like saying someone will be good at racing Formula 1 cars because they look great when they race Go-Karts on the weekends.

It's completely different. I feel like people need to understand this. NCAA and Olympic wrestling is COMPLETELY different to the kind of stuff that they do in the WWE. Punk's wrestling in the WWE will not help him in MMA at all. Not even close. Never will. It's a useless skill.

Based on all the information we have going into this fight, I don't see how CM Punk can win.

Mickey Gall has experience competing in 5 real MMA fights. CM Punk has none.

Mickey Gall has competitive BJJ experience in tournaments. CM Punk has none.

CM Punk has zero takedown defence and no ground game. Mickey Gall is a competent grappler with decent BJJ.

CM Punk cannot throw a punch and Mickey Gall just KO'd someone in the UFC.

CM Punk has never won a fight. Mickey Gall has won 5 fights in a range of different ways including 3 different submissions and a KO.

I'm not saying that people should bet on Mickey Gall. But I think that betting on CM Punk is burning money. Can CM Punk win? Of course he can, anything can happen in MMA. But based on what I saw in those UFC Fight Pass videos, he is going to need a miracle.

I think the most likely outcome of this fight is Mickey Gall shooting for a takedown, getting Punk's back and tapping him out within 3 minutes of the 1st round.

I really don't see what Punk can do to stop that from happening. He doesn't have the power, skills or movement to back Gall up and he doesn't have the wrestling defence to keep the fight standing.

I think CM Punk is a great guy. I want him to do well. I am rooting for him. But when you take a step back from all the hype and BS and evaluate what is really going on here, you have to see that the deck is seriously stacked against him.

I hope he does well, but I have a bad feeling that this is going to be Randy Couture vs James Toney all over again.


ReplyQuote
Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
05/09/2016 11:02 am  

ReplyQuote
mattemk
(@mattemk)
Black Belt
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 111
05/09/2016 11:37 am  

lets get down to the nitty gritty ,
I am going huge on
Andrade
Borg
Gall
Miocic

NOT MULTI , just big on each

Want to get your thoughts.


ReplyQuote
an-ti
(@an-ti)
Blue Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 9
05/09/2016 4:21 pm  

[quote quote=30327]lets get down to the nitty gritty ,
I am going huge on
Andrade[/quote]
Why Andrade? Jojo had some trouble couple of fights ago, but moving to TriStar helped and she was excellent against Letourneau in her last fight. Andrade is good, but likes to strike, and Jojo is a lot taller and I would say better on the feet. I don't know why Jojo is the underdog. I can't see Andrade succeeding standing nor getting the takedown.


ReplyQuote
JohnnySins
(@bookiekilla)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 499
05/09/2016 6:25 pm  

@Allsopp

Could it be possible the reality show is showing all of CM Punks growing pains, mistakes and weakness to make us believe that he is really bad?
But not showing where he is improving and how good he is in certain aspects.
Nevertheless, to surprise the audience when he does do good on his fight - kind'a like TV drama -everybody doesn't believe that he doesn't have what it takes to get a W - then bam! Surprise us all with a WIN -

Well, I know it's an odd intuition, but you never know. That's the reason I'm laying a unit on him.


ReplyQuote
Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
05/09/2016 6:36 pm  

[quote quote=30329]@Allsopp

Could it be possible the reality show is showing all of CM Punks growing pains, mistakes and weakness to make us believe that he is really bad?
But not showing where he is improving and how good he is in certain aspects.
Nevertheless, to surprise the audience when he does do good on his fight – kind’a like TV drama -everybody doesn’t believe that he doesn’t have what it takes to get a W – then bam! Surprise us all with a WIN –

[/quote]

It's possible, but we should try not to bet on assumptions because what you are saying is very unlikely. Did he try to look bad in his first ever sparring session on purpose? I really doubt it. He looked terrible in all the footage we have seen so far and that's all we have to work with, so that's what we should base our opinion on until he shows us otherwise.

CM Punk only started training MMA in January 2015 and since then he has had to overcome a shoulder injury. He hasn't had long enough to work on developing a well rounded skillset.

Again, I'm not saying you should go out and bet on Mickey Gall. But betting on CM Punk is madness imo. I think the smartest thing to do is pass on this freakshow fight and focus more on other fights on the card.

Nobody knows how CM Punk is going to look at UFC 203. The evidence suggests he is not going to look good at all, but we really don't know. When there is this much ambiguity it's always better to pass.

Betting on the CM Punk vs Mickey Gall fight is no different to playing Roulette imo. It's a total gamble. I don't think there's any need to bet on that fight, with much better opportunities to make money on this card.


ReplyQuote
Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
05/09/2016 6:44 pm  

ReplyQuote
Page 1 / 5
Share: