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UFC 205 Betting - Alvarez vs McGregor  

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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
12/11/2016 2:29 am  

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Danksta
(@danksta)
Blue Belt
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 14
12/11/2016 3:26 am  

Just checked out the board and the predictions for the main event are all over the place. I didn't pay too much attention to any of the posts saying this Conor is gonna destroy Alvarez I think those are just fanboys. Thinking with too much heart. I think the fight will be close but IMHO Eddie will get the W.

The fight will obviously be won or lost in the grappling. Can Eddie tire out Conor on the fence or get the takedown? If Conor can't defend against the cage or TD than he will probably lose. But if the fight stays mostly standing it isn't guaranteed that Eddie will lose. Don't discount Eddie's striking. I think Conor has more well rounded striking but I don't think he will dominate.

Most likely Eddie will get a TD at some point. Another factor to consider is that if this fight goes pass the second round Eddie will have a much better chance of winning. I think Eddie will be the fresher of the two in the later rounds. If it is a taxing fight eddie will be able to setup his takedowns using this striking. Eddie averages more than one TD per round in the UFC. Thats pretty good considering that TDs are not always part of his gameplan.

People are trying to discredit Alvarez because of those two split decisions to Pettis and Melendez. But Pettis was thought of as unbeatable when he was champ. Don't forget that both Pettis and Melendez were ranked in the top 3 when they fought Eddie. Don't forget that Conor just lost to Nate 2 fights ago. Nate has lost 4 and won 3 in his 7 fights. Beating Michael Johnson, Conor and Gray Maynard. Losing to Josh Thompson, RDA, Conor and Benson Henderson. Not the best record.

Conor had a pretty easy road to the Championship. Only good competition were Chad Mendes, Max Holloway and Jose Aldo. His finish of Aldo was spectacular. Alvarez fought a murderers row of competitors for his shot at the title. He beat Michael Chandler in Bellator. Lost to Cerrone in a fight he was winning but Cerrone exploited Alvarez's weakness to leg kicks. Which is something that has me worried. Beat Gilbert Melendez, Antony Pettis and Dos Anjos. Which he looked spectacular. As unexpected and Conor KO of Aldo. IMHO Alvarez has had a much more difficult road to the belt and fought much stiffer competition.

Rewatched all of their recent fights and this is what I came up with.
Pros for Mcgregor:
- Longer reach
- More technical striker.
- Unorthodox striker
- Good chin
- High fight IQ. Especially his game plan against Chad Mendes. All the shots to the body was a beautiful to watch. Mendes fighting on 2 weeks notice played a factor but the main reason he gassed so early was from all the body shots Mcgregor threw. One aspect I am worried about.

Cons for Mcgregor:
- Doesn't have the the best striking defense.
- Not the best gas tank. Diaz broke his will in their first fight.
- TDD is good but Eddie's wrestling is on a different level.

Pros for Alvarez:
- Physically stronger
- Much better wrestler
- Good chin. I doubt Mcgregor will get a quick KO.
- Iron will. Not going to be easy to break his will.
- Better gas tank.
- Great boxer

Cons for Alvarez:
- Shorter reach and height. All the websites say that Conor and Eddie are 5ft9in but that is BS. Conor is 1 to 2 inches taller for sure. Just watch when they square off.
- Not the best striking defense. He does get tagged in fights. But doesn't get into brawls like he used to and that should help.
- Slower than Conor.


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MMAboxingJUNKIE26
(@mmafan26)
Black Belt Customer
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 119
12/11/2016 2:01 pm  

Who wants to have an AVI bet with me? It's not for a single fight though. Let's do it for the whole event. Post all ur picks for ufc 205 here and I'll post mine. Whoever has a better score after the event wins. Here are my picks:

Mcgregor
Thompson
JJ
Tate
Weidman
Edgar
MJ
Belal
Boetsch
Chookagian
Alves

anyone wanna challenge me? 🙂


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jaydog2
(@jaydog2)
Brown Belt Customer
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 78
12/11/2016 5:05 pm  

Ok mmaboxing lets do this!

Conor
Thompson
JJ
Tate
Weidman
Jeremy
MJ
Luque
Boetsch
Chooka
Alves

3month avi bet, let me know if u are ok with this:D


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MMAboxingJUNKIE26
(@mmafan26)
Black Belt Customer
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 119
12/11/2016 5:31 pm  

[quote quote=31125]Ok mmaboxing lets do this!

Conor
Thompson
JJ
Tate
Weidman
Jeremy
MJ
Luque
Boetsch
Chooka
Alves

3month avi bet, let me know if u are ok with this:D

[/quote]

make it just one month and u got urself a deal! B-) :yes:


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Hugo
 Hugo
(@hugocrm)
Welterweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1029
12/11/2016 10:04 pm  

Alvarez 2 units
Thompson 3 units
JJ + Edgar 5 units
Romero 1 unit
MJ 1 unit

Great card, not for betting, but a glamber is a gambler.... :mail:
:good:


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LeroyPeterson
(@leroypeterson)
Black Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 110
13/11/2016 7:46 am  

my bets got cleaned up for the most part.
Wasn't sure on Alvarez or Connor, but had a feeling the fight was gonna drag out. Nope lol.


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Hugo
 Hugo
(@hugocrm)
Welterweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1029
13/11/2016 3:13 pm  

[quote quote=31128]Alvarez 2 units
Thompson 3 units
JJ + Edgar 5 units
Romero 1 unit
MJ 1 unit

Great card, not for betting, but a glamber is a gambler…. :mail:
:good:

[/quote]

Small profit, if wd wins , would be sweet... But i'm happy.


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 Anonymous
Joined: 51 years ago
Posts: 0
13/11/2016 6:08 pm  

[quote quote=31086]So many good looking picks made it hard to resist parlaying.
I made a bunch of similar nice-looking parlays for this event.
It’s exactly the kind of thing I usually regret.

#parlaydegeneracy

This card looks like a veritable gold mine, but I’m consumed with dread after having bet all last weeks’ winnings on ambitious – but sweet-lookin – parlays. I feel like a guy at a horserace with a lottery ticket. If I get most of my picks but still lose my shirt, I’ll have to punch myself in the face. Anyhow, that’s my analysis.

[/quote]

*punches self in the face 60 times* :wacko:


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nikitagraves
(@nikitagraves)
Brown Belt
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 78
13/11/2016 11:35 pm  

I squeaked by with about .7 of a unit of profit. I really thought WB won based on points, Woodley didn't have any 10-8 rounds in my opinion. However he did a lot of damage in those 2 rounds he won while WB didn't do much damage. So a draw is a fitting conclusion. That was 2units of potential profit so I'm disappointed.

With the live bet on Boetsch I made 3.7u profit overall so I'm content. Meisha really shit the bed and I regret that bet, especially since my initial lean was on Pennington.


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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
14/11/2016 1:16 pm  

This was a really frustrating event for me. I feel like we made good decisions for the most part, but not much went our way.

First of all Cerrone's fight got cancelled. Cerrone was one of our biggest bets of the weekend and a bet I felt confident would win easily. We were robbed of the opportunity to win +3.5 units of profit with this bet.

Then Tate got outgrappled by Raquel Pennington. To me this outcome was unthinkable. Tate is one of the strongest grappler's in the 135 pound Women's division and Pennington just isn't. Tate has fallen off so hard. Pennington struggled in grappling exchanges with Elizabeth Phillips just a few months ago and then totally dominated Tate on the ground on Saturday night. Losses like this are tough to rationalize.

Then Wonderboy's bet didn't cash. I'm amazed that Woodley managed to go the distance with Wonderboy. I'm also frustrated because I feel that the judges scored the fight wrong. I scored it 3-2 for Wonderboy pretty clear. I understand Woodley dished out a beating in the 4th round, but Wonderboy ended up in top position and was raining down ground and pound when the round ended. Those kinds of rounds normally get scored 10-9.

Nothing went our way on Saturday night but I am hoping we can bounce back with a win this weekend.

:good:


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Iamcloud
(@iamcloud)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 285
16/11/2016 3:32 pm  

[quote quote=30845]Eddie looked like shit vs declining and post USADA Pettis and Gilbert. Two split decisions laters everyone is judging Eddies skills by a one punch he landed on poor RDA who had broken jaw in the past.

Your right the takedowns will play a role but like Conor said.. He will be shooting for his life and Conor is prepared for it. The distance and reach will play a big factor in this fight. Eddie is no Nate. Nate has the reach but he is slower and not explosive at all.

Conor has the reach, power, explosive, timing and accuracy. Its just not fair..

This will be a walk in the park for Connor.

[/quote]

Santa is real :rose:


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Nordic
(@nordicflight)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 266
16/11/2016 5:07 pm  

Yeah... I´m beating myself up more over this pass than I do over a lot of my losses. Stylistically, it was perfect for Connor. In hindsight, this is a easy 5u bet :wacko:

I lost two bets against Eddie and all I can see is that it affected me and that I did not look at this as a new contest. It´s not because of doubting Connor that I did not bet him, I know that.

Walk in the park is exactly what it was, nice read cloud!! :good:


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chuck_woolery
(@chuck_woolery)
Lightweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 760
18/11/2016 4:07 pm  

Lost on Eddie, but I made a shit-ton on this event.

Technical term.


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an-ti
(@an-ti)
Blue Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 9
18/11/2016 6:53 pm  

Pennington+Miller and Romero+Woodley were ok.


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