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Allsopp
(@mma)
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16/10/2016 5:46 pm  

UFC 207UFC 207

UFC 207 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions for Rousey vs Nunes


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Allsopp
(@mma)
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16/10/2016 5:56 pm  

Many people will disagree with me but I believe that this is a great matchup for Ronda Rousey because Amanda Nunes is the perfect style of opponent for her.

I think it's important that we evaluate this fight based on the skills of both fighters and not get sucked into predicting the most likely outcome of this fight based on Nunes and Ronda's most recent performance.

It's also important to remember that Amanda Nunes is not Holly Holm. They have completely different styles of striking. Holm likes to play the matador, stay on the outside and use her technical striking to pick off her opponents as they come in, whilst Nunes likes to be really aggressive and look to land bombs.

Holly's style of striking is kryptonite for a fighter like Ronda Rousey because Holly never over commits or gets lazy in an exchange, which means Ronda doesn't get many opportunities to tie her up and throw her to the ground.

Amanda Nunes hits hard for a Bantamweight, but Judo is all about using your opponent's momentum against them and Nunes' style is tailor made for Ronda being able to tie her up and throw her. Nunes comes forward very aggressively and this will give Ronda a lot of opportunities to get the clinch.

Nunes hits hard, but she doesn't have that 1 punch power that can KO you dead. Ronda can afford to eat a couple of her shots to close the distance if she needs to and tie Nunes up.

Nunes lacks the footwork to circle out of danger when Ronda gets close [like Holly did]. It's also unlikely that Nunes will be able to deliver enough strikes to KO Ronda before Ronda is able to grab a hold of her and throw her to the ground.

Brendan Schaub pretty much summed up how I feel about this fight on the latest episode of the Fighter and the Kid. I don't think this fight will be close at all. I'd be really surprised if Nunes was able to survive more than a couple of minutes against Ronda...

I know a lot of people will say that Ronda's head might not be in a great place because she talked about retirement and suicide etc and I COMPLETELY get that. But we also have to remember that Nunes has poor fight IQ, poor cardio and her style plays perfectly into Ronda's strengths.

Ronda has been throwing people on their head and armbarring them in transitions and scrambles since she was a little girl. Even on her worse day I don't see Nunes being able to avoid getting caught in an armbar.

Maybe Ronda turns up looking a shadow of herself and gets destroyed again, but at odds of around 1.50 | -200 I'll take my chances!!!

There's a crazy amount of value on Ronda here imo. I think she should be closer to 1.20 | -500.

Remember that we don't have to pick the right winner all the time, we just have to try and place the right bets and in this instance I really feel like Ronda Rousey to beat Amanda Nunes is a great bet based on how they matchup skill for skill.


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Johnny
(@bookiekilla)
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19/10/2016 8:02 am  

Hendricks vs Magny added for 207


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MMAboxingJUNKIE26
(@mmafan26)
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19/10/2016 12:11 pm  

Neil Magny all day everyday. He knows how to use his reach to keep his opponents at bay and decent enough wrestling to defend against Hendricks. And keep in mind now, this isn't the 2013 version of Hendricks who mauled GSP. I don't think his body can perform the way it used to, hit hard at high pace and wrestle all day. Neil Magny by decision. Won't even be surprised if Magny takes him down.


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seusicha
(@seusicha)
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19/10/2016 4:05 pm  

I agree. I think Neil Magny it's a great bet in here. Hope we can get got odds!


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Johnny
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19/10/2016 4:19 pm  

Also added Matt Brown vs. Tarec Saffiedine.


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Jesse
(@jesse)
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20/10/2016 5:42 am  

I dont know, Ive faded johnny for the last few fights but I think he has a good chance at beating neil, pass for me


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Johnny
(@bookiekilla)
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21/10/2016 1:31 am  

Added Cain vs Werdum 2


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the german one
(@piledriver)
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15/12/2016 7:40 pm  

Lessons learned from UFC 206. Never trust guys with looong lay off.

- Mitch Gagnon lost
- Jordan Mein lost
- Tim Kennedy lost

Other examples are Rashad Evans against Ryan Bader or Thiago Alves vs Jim Miller. Even Khabib had problems in his first fight after over two years of injuries.


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taylor_666
(@taylor_666)
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18/12/2016 11:15 pm  

Really loving a magny, TJ and Cruz parlay at +300, tempted to stick about 5 units on this whilst the odds are decent


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Nordic
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20/12/2016 1:58 am  

I´m huge on Magny here. He´s very motivated, hungry and intelligent, up and coming fighter who have found his home at Elevation fight team and who have shown good improvement in many areas every time I see him lately. He is 4 years younger and holds 11 (!!!) " reach advantage over a Johny Hendricks that used to be Champ, pre usada (just saying) and who is now on a steep decline. I feel that Johny is already out of the sport, in his heart, but I also understand how hard it is to accept this with logic. All signs are there. He´d rater be with his kids, eat good food at his own steak house and not grind on like he did so much easier when he was hungry. Why grind, he knows he will never beat Wonderboy or Maia & co. (I get that, I am an ex top athlete to and I still want to believe I can hang with the younger beasts..)

I can talk skill breakdown to, but for me, this is a fade of the guy on the decline and being impressed with the guy on the way up.

doolb found this article about Johny and I feel he says what I suspected a lot, that he is done: Just re posting the article doolb posted.

Win or Walk Away; It’s All or Nothing for Johny Hendricks at UFC 207

I´m Huge on Means. I don´t see a clear area where Cowboy dominates and I see several where Means should dominate and do nasty things to Alex. Alex can choose how, but I think Means get´s him out of there well before the final bell.

I´m Leaning Rousey, but not sure I bet her. To many X-factors and I am giving retirement talk, layoffs, KO losses etc much more value now than I used to. If the line keeps getting better and I think it will, I may bet her a bit closer to evens, maybe. Nunes hits hard and has heart. But her technique and style is very different from Holms and I think it will be easier for Rousey to get her hands on her. But if she cant...

She might get T/KOed again, so I bet the under 1,5 all day. One of Rousey fights have gone over 1,5. Not many of Amandas fights have gone over. I feel both girls will want to get this over with fast. Rousey so she does not have to expose herself to lethal striking. Amanda so she don´t risk gassing out if it goes long and also because she needs to stop Rouseys offense and offense of her own seems like the best option to me.

I´m thinking that I have to bet Cruz a bit at the current odds. My brain agrees, but I have this gut feeling that KO´d-y G can be the one to sleep him..?

Cain Werdume, I don´t know... Sea level Cain, without DC as a training partner against a Werdume who beat him before and looked pretty good, but who did not look so good after, I think. Guys?

I think I lean TJ and Garcia, but I need to look at them

It´s going to be a supercool night of fights. I´m pumped already. I hope we can cash in nicely so we are all richer going into the next year :mail: :yahoo:


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MMAboxingJUNKIE26
(@mmafan26)
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20/12/2016 7:19 am  

[quote quote=31584]I´m huge on Magny here. He´s very motivated, hungry and intelligent, up and coming fighter who have found his home at Elevation fight team and who have shown good improvement in many areas every time I see him lately. He is 4 years younger and holds 11 (!!!) ” reach advantage over a Johny Hendricks that used to be Champ, pre usada (just saying) and who is now on a steep decline. I feel that Johny is already out of the sport, in his heart, but I also understand how hard it is to accept this with logic. All signs are there. He´d rater be with his kids, eat good food at his own steak house and not grind on like he did so much easier when he was hungry. Why grind, he knows he will never beat Wonderboy or Maia & co. (I get that, I am an ex top athlete to and I still want to believe I can hang with the younger beasts..)

I can talk skill breakdown to, but for me, this is a fade of the guy on the decline and being impressed with the guy on the way up.

doolb found this article about Johny and I feel he says what I suspected a lot, that he is done: Just re posting the article doolb posted.

Win or Walk Away; It’s All or Nothing for Johny Hendricks at UFC 207

I´m Huge on Means. I don´t see a clear area where Cowboy dominates and I see several where Means should dominate and do nasty things to Alex. Alex can choose how, but I think Means get´s him out of there well before the final bell.

I´m Leaning Rousey, but not sure I bet her. To many X-factors and I am giving retirement talk, layoffs, KO losses etc much more value now than I used to. If the line keeps getting better and I think it will, I may bet her a bit closer to evens, maybe. Nunes hits hard and has heart. But her technique and style is very different from Holms and I think it will be easier for Rousey to get her hands on her. But if she cant…

She might get T/KOed again, so I bet the under 1,5 all day. One of Rousey fights have gone over 1,5. Not many of Amandas fights have gone over. I feel both girls will want to get this over with fast. Rousey so she does not have to expose herself to lethal striking. Amanda so she don´t risk gassing out if it goes long and also because she needs to stop Rouseys offense and offense of her own seems like the best option to me.

I´m thinking that I have to bet Cruz a bit at the current odds. My brain agrees, but I have this gut feeling that KO´d-y G can be the one to sleep him..?

Cain Werdume, I don´t know… Sea level Cain, without DC as a training partner against a Werdume who beat him before and looked pretty good, but who did not look so good after, I think. Guys?

I think I lean TJ and Garcia, but I need to look at them

It´s going to be a supercool night of fights. I´m pumped already. I hope we can cash in nicely so we are all richer going into the next year :mail: :yahoo:

[/quote]

I agree on almost everything u've mentioned but on thing though I wanna point out is that how Means gives up takedowns easily, sure he finds ways to get up fast but if it's that easy to take him down, Cowboy would just keep on doing it over and over again until he takes his back or Means starts to slow down which I kinda notice on the Magny fight. Cowboy isn't an elite fighter but we haven't seen him gas in any of his fights and one thing is for sure if he goes for a takedown I can bet my house on it that he's gonna get it. I have a feeling that Means is sort of like Condit, amazing striking but poor TD defense and questionable cardio. Magny was taking him down with ease and Matt Brown was outwrestling and bullying him on the fence. Only if he showed a decent TD def he would be a great bet. Any thoughts guys? :scratch:


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Nordic
(@nordicflight)
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20/12/2016 5:20 pm  

For what it´s worth, Nunes is sick today and could not (or did not) make it to media day: http://entimports.com/2016/12/10-days-out-and-rouseys-opponent-just-skipped-media-day-due-to-health-issue/

May or may not be a factor?

Either way, it´s kind of strange how UFC focus 100% on Rousey in the promotion and Nunes don´t make it to meet the media. It´s like she´s not even part of this. Oh, she has that belt thingie I guess


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OGBRIEST
(@ogbriest)
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Posts: 35
22/12/2016 11:10 pm  

Just some history:
01/03/2015 Cody Garbrandt was listed as a +160 dog against Marcus Brimage....
07/11/2015 Cody Garbrandt was listed as a -650 Favorite against Enrique Briones..
02/21/2016 Cody is listed as a -335 Favorite over Augusto Mendes ( a replacement for John Lineker) and Mendes missed weight
05/29/2016 Cody is listed as +135 dog against Thomas Almeida
08/20/16 Cody is listed as a -430 Favorite over Takeya Mizugaki
12-30-15 Cody is listed as a +175 dog against Dominic Cruz

09/27/2015 Cruz was a -420 Favorite against Takeya Mizugaki
01/17/2016 Cruz was a +125 dog against T.J. Dillashaw
06/04/2016 Cruz was a -450 Favorite against Urijah Faber
12/30/2016 Cruz is listed as a -200 Favorite against Cody Garbrandt


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SonofSloppy2nds
(@sonofsloppy2nds)
Brown Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 79
23/12/2016 8:42 am  

So Howboy didn't do his camp at ATT after the fallout from from the brooks fight. He's back in Brazil for this one, confidence increase dirty bird. B-)

Source: bookie beatdown


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