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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
22/01/2017 10:00 pm  

UFC 209 BettingUFC 209 Betting

UFC 209 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions for Thompson vs Woodley

Tyron Woodley did much better than I expected in their first fight. How do you see the rematch playing out?


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LeroyPeterson
(@leroypeterson)
Black Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 110
22/01/2017 11:35 pm  

I haven't re-watched the entire fight, but that 1st Ground'n'pound on Thompson really took a toll on him, the rest of the fight was playing catch-up or recover. The fight proved Thompson could go into deep waters, had a decent chin, good cardio and respectable fight IQ. Woodley did well too, but considering the damage he took (or didnt take) in the first half, he wasn't able to finish or really dominate when Thompson was at his weakest.
As far as what the fighters are going to improve before the fight... Anyone's guess.
For safe betting, I think choose the over. I do hope Thompson wins.

I don't know much about ferguson so cant really comment. Khabib's takedown technique, size and strength seems unmatched. I hope Khabib gets it.


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Andrew
(@bondy12)
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Posts: 130
23/01/2017 3:36 am  

Worth taking into consideration with the new scoring system; Woodley can take rounds through more significant phases. (Hits like a truck)


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the german one
(@piledriver)
Brown Belt
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 94
23/01/2017 2:00 pm  

I was never sold on Tyron until the WB fight. The rematch will be close, too. The safest bet will be the over. But I am leaning on Woodley, he's a silver back gorilla, strong as fuck and durable.

Khabib will win and get his hands on the chicken. The only risk is a submission win for Ferguson.


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War
 War
(@war)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 289
23/01/2017 4:41 pm  

2.64 for Tony? Take my money.


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SonofSloppy2nds
(@sonofsloppy2nds)
Brown Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 79
15/02/2017 1:19 am  

yo nordic! judges for the CM & ME below

Veteran official John McCarthy will be the third man in the cage for Woodley-Thompson 2, while Derek Cleary, Sal D’Amato and Chris Lee will score the fight from cageside. Woodley and Thompson battled to a majority draw in their first meeting at UFC 205 in New York City on Nov. 12. Cleary was also a judge for that contest and submitted a final 47-47 scorecard after five founds.

Meanwhile, Herb Dean will referee the clash between Nurmagomedov and Ferguson, while Junichiro Kamijo, Marcos Rosales and Jeff Mullen will serve as judges for the 155-pound bout.

Read more at http://www.sherdog.com/news/news/Referees-Judges-Assigned-for-Two-Title-Bouts-at-UFC-209-on-March-4-117333#LjScXlFVZxklmzk4.99


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chuck_woolery
(@chuck_woolery)
Lightweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 760
15/02/2017 5:48 am  

Khabib will smash him. He's much stronger. Horrible match up for Ferguson.


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the german one
(@piledriver)
Brown Belt
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 94
22/02/2017 9:37 am  

My confident picks for UFC 209:

- Bektic over Elkins
- Kelly vs Rashad over 1.5 rounds
- Khabib vs Tony over 1.5 rounds, maybe 2.5 rounds

These three are my strong picks. I have some others with massive value, must research a little bit. What do you think about this picks?


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longway
(@longway)
Blue Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 12
22/02/2017 1:44 pm  

Hi

I saw Nurmagomedov v Ferguson to NOT go the distance at 2.1, I thought that was way off and took the line for 4U.

My read is that either Nurmie will do his thing and drag Ferguson to the ground every round and beat him up, and of that happens then no-one can last 5 rounds of that kind of mauling, or Ferguson will stuff the TDs and keep it standing or get a lucky KO (and there is always a chance of Ferguson snagging a choke), Nurmie was wobbled by Johnson and I think by Horcher too, I can't see him being able to handle Ferguson's striking for 5 rounds.

I just cant see this fight lasting 5 rounds either way. What do you guys think?


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Allsopp
(@mma)
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Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
22/02/2017 7:13 pm  

[quote quote=32348]

I just cant see this fight lasting 5 rounds either way. What do you guys think?

[/quote]

Hi there,

I think both guys are super tough.

I don't give Khabib any real chance of finishing Ferguson because he isn't going to knock Ferguson out and Ferguson is too damn tough and too damn scrappy to lose via ground and pound.

Tony Ferguson will also do a much better job of protecting himself on the ground than some of Khabib's recent opponent's. If you watch the Nurmagomedov vs RDA fight you will see that Khabib wasn't able to inflict anywhere near as much damage on RDA as some of his recent opponent's, because RDA is a Black Belt in BJJ.

If RDA was able to go the distance with Ferguson at high altitude, I definitely think that Khabib can do the same.

I could see this fight going the distance, but like you said I can also see Ferguson getting a finish. I think it's tough to predict either way how it'll play out.


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 Anonymous
Joined: 51 years ago
Posts: 0
22/02/2017 10:21 pm  

Nurmie vs Fergie, I maybe like the over 3.5r but it's -170, which i find kinda costly.

Probably I'd prefer to parlay it w the over 2.5r (-175) in WB vs Woodly, for a total (+150) : half-size bet.

I really like Overeem Dec (+340) small bet and over 1.5r (-115) med bet.


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longway
(@longway)
Blue Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 12
23/02/2017 2:32 am  

I think I will hv to watch the dos anjos fight again. If it was 3 rounds I would agree with you, but I don't think rda could hv handled 2 more rounds of the mauling he received, but fair points overall.

I know khabib had the gas tank to continue his style of fighting for 5 rounds as well, in the tibau fight, even though he never got tibau down he never slowed his constant td attempts and just got up with tibau on his back, and tibau is huge.

One more point is that johnson has a good wrestling and grappling pedigree, and he could not stop khabib.

I just think it's highly likely one guy will get the finish. I lean khabib, but there is no value in his line.

However I am having my doubts of my read, I I hv never gone 4u on a prop, hence my post.


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Allsopp
(@mma)
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Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
23/02/2017 4:14 am  

[quote quote=32353]I think I will hv to watch the dos anjos fight again. If it was 3 rounds I would agree with you, but I don’t think rda could hv handled 2 more rounds of the mauling he received, but fair points overall.

I know khabib had the gas tank to continue his style of fighting for 5 rounds as well, in the tibau fight, even though he never got tibau down he never slowed his constant td attempts and just got up with tibau on his back, and tibau is huge.

One more point is that johnson has a good wrestling and grappling pedigree, and he could not stop khabib.

I just think it’s highly likely one guy will get the finish. I lean khabib, but there is no value in his line.

However I am having my doubts of my read, I I hv never gone 4u on a prop, hence my post.

[/quote]

I just want to bring up a few things because I see things a bit differently to you.

RDA didn't really get mauled by Khabib. Khabib was actually starting to get tired in the third round and RDA was starting to take over. I actually think RDA would have won if their fight would have been 5 rounds instead of 3.

Michael Johnson has always struggled with the ground game. His takedown defence is solid, but he does struggle when he is on the ground. Who could forget him getting submitted by Reza Madadi. I think the Khabib fight showed that Johnson still has a lot to work on when it comes to grappling.


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BettingDiscipline
(@bettingdiscipline)
Featherweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 578
23/02/2017 7:59 am  

[quote quote=32357]

RDA didn’t really get mauled by Khabib. Khabib was actually starting to get tired in the third round and RDA was starting to take over. I actually think RDA would have won if their fight would have been 5 rounds instead of 3.

[/quote]

Really? I'll have to rewatch that fight. I already have 3U on Ferg, trying to stop myself from adding more!


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BettingDiscipline
(@bettingdiscipline)
Featherweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 578
23/02/2017 8:19 am  

Just rewatched RDA/Khabib. I didn't see where Khabib got tired in rd3. Can you elaborate Allsop? Is it because khabib was just laying on top until ref told him to work?

My takeaways from the fight:

- BJM kept telling Khabib to work threatening to stand them up
- RDA had Khabib in guolltine twice
- Khabib surprisingly tagged RDA a couple times

How does Ferg deal with forward pressers like Khabib?


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