UFC 209 Betting - T...
 
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UFC 209 Betting - Thompson vs Woodley

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longway
(@longway)
Blue Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
Posts: 12
 

[quote quote=32359]

RDA didn’t really get mauled by Khabib. Khabib was actually starting to get tired in the third round and RDA was starting to take over. I actually think RDA would have won if their fight would have been 5 rounds instead of 3.

Really? I’ll have to rewatch that fight. I already have 3U on Ferg, trying to stop myself from adding more!

[/quote]

I just rewatched the khabib v rda fight again, and my memory was faulty, khabib didn't do the damage I thought he had. However he was defintely not tired in R3, rda was backing him up in the striking exchanges in that round and unexplicably rda went for a td and khabib threw him down and went to work.

Anyway the not gtd prop certainly doesnt warrant 4u given what i saw in that fight. I hedged now with 4u on O3.5 at 1.53 so at worst my loss will be just under 2u, i hope i can get lucky and hit the sweet spot for wins on both props though.

Thanks for the input though from you both, if something seems to good to be true, it probably is.


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 Anonymous
Joined: 51 years ago
Posts: 0
 

Thats deffo a general rule.


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Blitzkraeg
(@blitzkraeg)
Purple Belt
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 24
 

I had to jump in on the Ferguson line today at +180. Khabib is a beast but there is enough value at those odds.

Here's what I see:

- we do not know how KBB will deal with Ferg's scrappy style and dangerous striking
- the best comp that KBB faced was RDA who is a pressure striker + power grappler which played into KBB's strengths
- RDA did threaten with BJJ which Ferg could do as well
- KBB was indecisive striking against Horcher (could have been because he was focused on getting the TKD)
- If KBB is as indecisive as he was against Horcher or as hittable as he was against MJ Ferg could do damage
- KBB is gritty and tough but we have not seen him rocked with strikes or in danger (joe exaggerated the strike that MJ hit him with) and if Ferg starts to tune him up on the feet and shucks just one TKD things could get interesting

Pick:

1.75U Ferguson ML +180 (2.80) to win 3.15U B-)

I will look to add more if the value increases. :good:


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chuck_woolery
(@chuck_woolery)
Lightweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 760
 

You guys forget one thing

Khabib is a f'n sociopath who literally was bred for combat.

And he is STRONG. much stronger than he looks, and much stronger than Tony.

If he wants to win, he will win.

Tony is tough, but he won't stop him. Only hope is to outpoint him.

Khabib by brutal, repeated punishment

:heart:


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Allsopp
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Allsopp
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Blitzkraeg
(@blitzkraeg)
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Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 24
 

[quote quote=32379]You guys forget one thing

Khabib is a f’n sociopath who literally was bred for combat.

And he is STRONG. much stronger than he looks, and much stronger than Tony.

If he wants to win, he will win.

Tony is tough, but he won’t stop him. Only hope is to outpoint him.

[/quote]

Chuck - I agree KBB is a psycho.

But Ferg has enough avenues to win: sub, strikes, and points that +180 is too much value to pass up.


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longway
(@longway)
Blue Belt
Joined: 4 years ago
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Anyone else looking at the godbeer (great name) spitz fight and seeing value in godbeer?

I know he had a bad outing against ledet, and got subbed by a boxer, and spitz is a sub guy, but can be really be the dog in this fight?

Spitz is nothing special from what I hv seen.


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gspgoat
(@gspgoat)
Blue Belt
Joined: 5 years ago
Posts: 16
 

Depending on odds, im thinking Pedro vs Craig to end in submission.
Tyson Pedro has finished 4/5 fights by submission & the Bearjew 8/9.


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Allsopp
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Allsopp
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Allsopp
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Allsopp
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 Anonymous
Joined: 51 years ago
Posts: 0
 

Whenever we talk too much about Value, its cause our guy aint gonna win.


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Hugo
 Hugo
(@hugocrm)
Welterweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1029
 

My bets:
Tyron Woodley / 2 units odds 2.4
Tony Ferguson / 2 units odds 2.8
Rashad Evans / 3 units odds 1.5 (I'll bet against Dan Kelly till he dies...)
Lando Vannata / 3 units odds 1.4
Daniel Spitz / 2 units odds 2.3
Cynthia Calvillo/3 units odds 1.95
Overeem vs Hunt over 1 rd/ 3 units at 1.9

GL FELLAS !!! :yes:


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