UFC 210 Betting - Cormier vs Johnson 2
UFC 210 SATURDAY April 8, 2017.
Current Record (21-15)
Current ROI (-0.006%) = [-0.305/ 48.65]
UNIT TOTAL SINCE 2/19/17: [-0.305]
LAST CARD: [+3.456 units] [08.15 units wagered] ROI: +%42.4
1x Unit = $50
I always wait to post my plays after the Weigh-ins.
1) DC vs RUMBLE OVR 1.5 RDS (-155) 2.00 Units
2) BLACHOWITZ (-110) 0.50 Units
3) COTE(-135) 0.25 Units
4) ROSA (+200) 0.25 Units
5) WEIDMAN ( +105 ) 1.00 Units
6) GILLESPIE (-240) 0.25 Units
7) EMMETT (-200) 0.25 Units
8) USMAN (-310) 0.50 Units
9) CHOOKAGIAN (-150) 0.25 Units
1) BIBULATOV vs LAUSA (+145) Fight won’t go to judges (won’t go 3 round distance) 0.25 Units
2) DC vs RUMBLE FIGHT WILL START 2nd Round (-250) 6.00 Units
EMMET (-200) / GILLESPIE (-240) / OVR 1.5 RDS (-155) = (+237) 0.25 Units
BLACHOWITZ (-115) / JURY (-440) / WEIDMAN (-105) = (+348) 0.25 Units
BoL and Remember “If you didn’t do your homework and are copying mine, don’t bitch about our grade afterward! “
Let’s get this
DC vs RUMBLE OVR 1.5 RDS : This is a rematch fight and I always say this causes fighters to be smarter and more tentative as they are familiar with the opponent. DC is getting up years but the man is a beast. He has never been stopped and has already taken Rumble’s best shots and survived. I believe the fight could go either way especially with the weight cut factor and the fact rematches rarely have the same outcome. But with DC’s toughness, Rumble’s recognition of his mistakes in the last bout I feel confident this fight will go past the 07:30 min mark. RUMBLE has to finish a man that has never been finished in the 1st round of a rematch where he was big brothered.
BLACHOWITZ DEF CUMMINGS: This FIGHT IS A MATCH OF STYLES. BLACHOWITZ HAS SUSPECT TD DEFENSE AND SHOWS NO REAL ABILITY TO GET TO HIS FEET, WHILE HIS OPPONENT HAS A RELENTLESS PURSUIT OF THE TD BUT HAS CARDIO AND CHIN ISSUES. BLACHOWITZ MAY HAVE A DEFICIENT GROUND GAME BUT HE HAS FOUND A WAY TO LAND HIS LETHAL STRIKES IN EVERY ONE OF HIS BOUTS. EVEN WHEN HE GETS DOMINATED FROM TOP POSITION HE IS TOUGH ENOUGH AND HAS GOOD ENOUGH CARDIO TO SURVIVE GOING THE DISTANCE WITH GUSTAFSSON IN HIS LAST FIGHT AS WELL AS COREY ANDERSON ANOTHER WRESTLER AND JIMI MANUWA. HIS OPPONENT CAN’T TAKE PUNCH AND HAS BEEN BRUTALLY KO'd IN HIS LAST 2 FIGHTS. 3 / 4. IT SEEMS OLE PATRICK IS READY FOR HIS YEARLY KO TO REMIND HIM THIS ISN’T WRESTLING. THE LINE INDICATES THE HOLE IN BLACHOWITZ TD DEFENSE AND GETUP, BUT WITH AT LEAST 3 ENGAGES STANDING I FEEL CONFIDENT BLACHOWITZ TOUCHES THIS PILLOW AT LEAST ONCE DURING THE 3ROUNDS AND WILL GET THE FINISH.
ROSA OVER BURGOS: This is a fight between two solid fighters in the 145 Division. Both guys are from the east coast and should have decent crowd support. Burgos has natural tools with long arms and a strong desire to fight. He has decent td defense power and is big for the division. He has a solid chin and needs it as he employs a stalker type strategy forcing you to fight. I question his cardio though as only 2 of his 8 fights have gone past the first round. And in his UFC debut, he wasn’t really grappled at all and faded in the R3. In this fight, I lean toward Rosa due to his level of competition in the UFC. He debuted on short notice in a fight where he nearly shocked Denis Siver as a huge dog. Got the finish in his next fight and then went to a split dec loss against Yair Rodriguez. He shows strong tools on the ground and has shown good toughness and has yet to be finished in his pro career. He has done well against grapplers and strikers. I see the fight as a pick 'em and we are getting +200 dog value. I’ll put a small wager on Rosa forcing Burgos to spend a lot of energy in the clinch and transitions causing an opening for a dec win or sub late by Rosa. Caution to the wind though Burgos looked very good in his debut, has solid training partners and a great frame for the division. This is a more experienced fighter advantage and value with the odds. Most times I talk about value though it’s a loser.
GILLESPIE DEF HOLBROOK: Both fighters are ground fighters using their submission and grappling to wear down their opponents. This only the 2nd UFC fight for Gillespie who showed promise in his debut on the road in Brazil against a Franca as a +125 dog. He is currently undefeated in mma, and competed in Olympic wrestling before making the transition to mma. He is the hometown guy here being from Long Island, NY. His style is a relentless pursuit of grappling controlling his opponents against the fence. He uses this to gain a cardio advantage and then opens up with his striking after he has slowed you down with his grappling. His cardio allows him to apply constant pressure to his opp. He has decent boxing for a wrestler and a solid chin. He doesn’t lay and pray but rather works for the finish when he gets on top. He will also have a reach advantage despite being the shorter fighter. 71” reach vs 70” while being 5’9” and his opp being 5’11” . Holbrook seems to be a guy they keep throwing against other prospects but he really hasn’t impressed me. He got the win in his last fight as a +350 dog. He is sneaky off his back but relies on leg locks and looks for too many submissions that won’t be advantageous against any high iq fighter with exp in sub def. He’s a similar grinder fighter like Gillespie and this will force the fight to go stand up where Holbrook has a C+ chin rating at this time. I believe Gillespie has more fight in him and will get the W.
JURY def De la Torre : Tune up fight for Jury’s return I caution the long layoff as I hate to bet fighters who have not been active. But this is the classic ufc gift fight to get a potentially profitable prospect back into the game. Jury should win but with the inactivity, it usually isn’t easy. I put this play on a few parlays due to the huge juice and inactivity red flag. Jury should control this fight in the grappling and get the finish or udec.
Bibulatov vs Lausa won’t go to the judges: Both these guys start fast and have lethal standup, I believe Lausa catches Bibulatov early on the feet and forces Bibulatov to go to his vicious ground game. This will wear Lausa out and lead to an opening for Bibulatov. The bet is the fight does not go the distance. Prop bet some won’t be able to get it but I see one of these guys not allowing the fight to go to the judges.
LAST CARD (UFC FN 107)
Gunnar Nelson (-300) over Alan Jouban [1.0 units] to win [0.333 units]
Brad Pickett (-140) over Marlon Vera (1.00 units) to win [0.714 units]
Timothy Johnson (-180) over Daniel Omielziak (1.00 Units) to win [0.556 units}
Lina Lansberg (-310) over Lucie Pudilova [1.0units] to win [0.323units]
Arnold Allen (-110) over Makwan Amirkhani (1.10units) to win [1.00 units]
Leon Edwards (+110) over Vicente Luque (1.00 units) to win [1.10 units]
Johnson (-180) / Breese (-275) / Pickett (-135) = (+270ish) (0.25 units) to win [0.67 units]
Lansberg (-310) / Edwards (+110) / Allen (-110) = (+430) (0.25 units) to win [1.075 units]
Allen (-110 / Pickett (-140) = (+227) Hometown Parlay (0.25 units) to win [0.568 units]
Lansberg by Dec (-112) (0.25 units) to win [0.893 units]
Duffy to win inside the distance (-160) (0.800 units) to win [0.500 units)
Allen / Amirkhani OVR 2.5 rounds (-142) (0.25 units) to win [0.176 units]
^Wow man, solid homework.
Love it when people put up real analysis, instead of bs opinions for discussions sake.