UFC Fight Night 107 Betting - Manuwa vs Anderson
[quote quote=32533]Anybody see Diakese being submitted in the 1st or 2nd round?
I dont think its likely. He's been at ATT working hard, apparently a lot of work on ground game.
enty missed weight 139, looked like death doin it
Jimi Manuwa by ko 1 unit
Duffy by ko 1 unit
Darren Stewart 3 units
Timothy Johson 3 units
Alan Jouban 2 units
Arnold Allen 2 units
Luque 2 units
Bresse 3 units
Lina 3 units
I think that is a good card for betting... 20 units total , let's what happens !!
GL FELLAS !! :good:
UFC FN 107 SATURDAY MARCH 18.
Current Record (13-11)
Current ROI (-09.286%) = [-3.761/40.5]
UNIT TOTAL SINCE 2/19/17: [-3.761]
1x Unit = $50
I always wait to post my plays after the Weigh-ins.
Gunnar Nelson(-300) over Alan Jouban [1.0 units] to win [0.333 units]
Brad Pickett(-140) over Marlon Vera (1.00 units) to win [0.714 units]
Timothy Johnson(-180) over Daniel Omielziak (1.00 Units) to win [0.556 units}
Lina Lansberg(-310) over Lucie Pudilova [1.0units] to win [0.323units]
Arnold Allen(-110) over Makwan Amirkhani (1.10units) to win [1.00 units]
Leon Edwards(+110) over Vicente Luque (1.00 units) to win [1.10 units]
Johnson(-180) / Breese(-275) / Pickett (-135) = (+270ish) (0.25 units) to win [0.67 units]
Lansberg(-310) / Edwards(+110) / Allen (-110) = (+430) (0.25 units) to win [1.075 units]
Allen(-110 / Pickett(-140) = (+227) Hometown Parlay (0.25 units) to win [0.568 units]
Lansberg by Dec (-112) (0.25 units) to win [0.893 units]
Duffy to win inside the distance (-160) (0.800 units) to win [0.500 units)
Allen / Amirkhani OVR 2.5 rounds (-142) (0.25 units) to win [0.176 units]
Gunnar Nelson over Alan Jouban: Jouban has been a solid earner for me but it is usually against C level competition. This is his first real step-up in competition and a large step at that. Nelson has some of the slickest ground game in the division and that is probably Jouban’s greatest weakness, along with his suspect cardio. Jouban is a model in his free time and normally I would hold this against him but he does bring the fight. However I see this matchup as a C level fighter, losing to the only higher competition than himself , against an B+ fighter in Nelson. Nelson has fought much higher competition in the UFC and shown promise. Losses to Rick Story in his first Main Event and survived a 3 round decision on the ground with Demian Maia, no easy task. Nelson is an Olympian Jiu Jitsu Black belt a very rare thing for a European fighter. I picture this fight going to the ground by the 2nd round and if it does Jouban can’t swim. Nelson trains in Ireland with McGregor, not that it helps him but will lead to him having more fan support during the bout which can influence judges, especially European Judges. Gunnar has done very well in the UFC against strikers (Tumenov , Thatch, Akhmedov, Johnson) finishing them all within the first 2 rounds by hanging with them on the feet and getting the fight to the ground where he finishes inexperienced ground fighters. I think the prop Nelson wins in the 2round is worth a look. Fears: Nelson shows no urgency can be good and bad always cool calm and collective but can get out worked on the feet. Nelson is coming off an injury and hasn’t fought in 315days.
Brad Pickett over Marlon Vera: Most time you wouldn’t want to be on the guy announcing his retirement before the fight , or wait do you ? Since I have been tracking the fighter who has announced his retirement plans PRE-Fight is 3-1. Recent examples include Ortiz over Sonnen, Faber over Pickett. The only reason I bring light to this trend because it seems they get a hand chosen opponent for their style and a kinda fairwell from the company. Marlon Vera is taking this fight on shortnotice and at catch weight. This might actually be an advantage for Vera who has shown cardio issues. Vera likes to fight off his back and has terrible TD def. He is slick off his back but nothing Pickett shouldn’t be able to handle. I see this fight going the distance with Pickettt on top mostly grinding out a final victory in front of his home crowd. Vera has to finish in order to win and that is not easy to do with a scrapper like Pickett
Timothy Johnson over Daniel Omielanczuk : Johnson is one of those guys you want on your side in a fight one who just enjoys the fight, he barely makes the weight and is a heavyweight tilting the scales at 264. With his size he controls other fighters from the clinch. He will eat punches to deliver them and well he should because the man has a granite chin. Never been KO’d and above average cardio for the HW division are traits you look for in a bet cashing fighter. This will be Johnson’s 5th bout in the UFC, with the last two being out of his home country giving him needed experience with on the road camps, and he has only shown struggles with guys who have better wrestling than him. He constantly comes forward and can wear out most opponents because you just can’t finish him and he only gets stronger as the fight goes and he never quits. He is 10-3 overall and only been finished once via Kimura. Omielanczuk is a striker and very green on the ground this plays into Johnson’s style perfectly who I see wearing out Daniel in the early rounds and dragging this fight to the ground late for a dec win. Fears: Johnson doesn’t have the greatest fight to get up which I value a lot, he isn’t the best anywhere but very well-rounded and a solid fight IQ. Daniel has decent standup for a bigman. Many times refs will break Johnson off his opponent against the fence because he controls them there and the crowd will sometimes influence ref’s decision to break the action and reset which would be advantage Omielanczuk. Omielanczuk has only been finished 1 time as well.
Lina Lansberg over Lucie Pudilova: Lansberg looked amazing at the weigh-ins and is the only female I have seen to actually compete with Cyborg for the majority of that fight. That fight was at catch weight and in Brazil yet Lansberg didn’t crumble under the pressure. She is going to find herself a home in this division and it starts this morning.
Arnold Allen over Makwan Amirkhani: A fight between two young prospects where I think one has passed more tests then the other this fight is razor thin as I see it. Arnold looked amazing at the weigh ins and seems to have had a very strong camp while Makwan looked very sluggish and is known to have cardio issues. This fight will be action from the get but I see Allen’s cardio and familiarity with the opponent will get him a decision. Allen won his UFC debut on short notice against a champion from another organization where he was losing the entire fight but his cardio and wiliness to fight wore his opponent down and Arnold seized the moment finishing in the 3rd round. In his second test he passed with flying colors against a staple in the division in Yaotzin Meza where he nearly finished again and showed strong TD defense and determined get up. He has survived cuts and getting caught in a triangle. His constant cardio and strength should carry him through the first round and as the fight goes on he should pull ahead for a decision win with the Euro fans chanting ALLEN ALLEN ! Fears: Allen is young although has passed both tests with an A. Allen finds himself in bad situations early in the fight but has been able to survive them.
Leon Edwards over Vicente Luque: Edwards has more tools in the toolbox imo. He can out wrestle Luque and should be able to hang on the feet. Edwards look considerably larger at the weigh ins and in my estimation has fought higher competition in the UFC. Edwards has shown struggles with grapplers and Luque is a striker. This is Luque’s first step up in competition and he has to do it on Edward’s side of the pond. Edwards by decision book it.
(Last Card )UFC FN 106 Results
Kennedy(-110) over Jason 1.00 won 0.909 units
Lee(-165) over Trinaldo 0.25 won 0.152 units
Means(-180) over Oliveira 4.00 lost 4.00 units
Formiga(+125) over Borg 0.25 lost 0.25 units
Barboza(-140) over Dariush 2.00 won 1.429 units
Gastellum/Belfort OVR 1.5 RDS(+145) 1.00 lost 1.00 units
Means / Barboza 2T Parlay (+167) 1.00 lost 1.00 units
Good Luck Fade or Follow still building my name but I have been successfully betting MMA since 2012.
[quote quote=32531]I like Anderson here actually. He’s been improving and i agree will go for.finish[/quote]
Extremely WRONG. :whistle:
[quote quote=32530]Gunnar vs Jouban – Jouban 2u
Entwistle vs Johns – over1.5 2u
Scott vs Askham – over2.5 1u
Manuwa vs. Anderson – over1.5 2u
Ohmbet MMA Pick’em promotion:
Jouban, Duffy, Amirkhani, Manuwa, Stewart, Pickett, Askham, Luque, Omielanczuk, Johns, Lansberg, Breese, Diakiese