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UFC Fight Night 135 Betting - Gaethje vs Vick  

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Allsopp
(@mma)
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05/08/2018 5:41 pm  

UFC Fight Night 135 Betting Tips, Picks and Predictions for Gaethje vs Vick

 


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BarneyDog
(@barneydog)
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Joined: 4 years ago
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06/08/2018 7:10 pm  

I would be careful about recency betting in the Vick Gaethje match up


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LeroyPeterson
(@leroypeterson)
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07/08/2018 10:47 pm  

Gaethje is going to chop that tree down! (vick)

MJ is tough for the first round, then has repeatedly faded the rest of the fight. I think Fili can weather the storm, or at least not take too much damage before turning things around and edging out a 29-28 decision.


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BarneyDog
(@barneydog)
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11/08/2018 10:13 am  

Hi Guys, 

The Barberna Ellenberger fight may have some shit attached, Barberena was injured with a broken foot and ligament damage. He could not walk for 6 months after surgery, Ellenberger will have home town advantage as he is from Nebraska, this fight is not what it seems. Barberena should not be a 1.25 favourite against anyone, check out the interview with James Lynch with the link below, Ellenberger odds will improve currently 4.55 I know he has lost 8 of his last 10 fights but for a fighter with 19Ko’s & 6 Subs on his record i think their is value in 4.55, especially with Barberena being injured in the Leon Edwards fight, what are your thoughts ?

 

 

 

 

 

 


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Allsopp
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12/08/2018 1:30 pm  
Posted by: BarneyDog

Hi Guys, 

The Barberna Ellenberger fight may have some shit attached, Barberena was injured with a broken foot and ligament damage. He could not walk for 6 months after surgery, Ellenberger will have home town advantage as he is from Nebraska, this fight is not what it seems. Barberena should not be a 1.25 favourite against anyone, check out the interview with James Lynch with the link below, Ellenberger odds will improve currently 4.55 I know he has lost 8 of his last 10 fights but for a fighter with 19Ko’s & 6 Subs on his record i think their is value in 4.55, especially with Barberena being injured in the Leon Edwards fight, what are your thoughts ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

I finished researching this fight last night and I definitely get where you are coming from mate. Barberena shouldn't be this big of a favorite against anyone in the division, but at the same time I am finding it hard to pull the trigger on Ellenberger.

At this point in his career he seems to be nervous, lacking in confidence and quite fragile. He got dropped and finished off a knee to the body in his last fight against Ben Saunders which is something you never want to see. I know that a nasty shot to the body can finish anyone, but at this level of the sport we really want to see guys be able to put on a Poker face and try to fight through stuff like that.

Before that we saw him suffer a life changing KO against Mike Perry and then even in his win against Matt Brown he looked to be struggling badly with Brown's pressure. Ellenberger did not look comfortable at all in that fight and aside from the two hail mary's that he landed he looked to be in big trouble.

I was hoping to see something in the Tarec Saffiedine fight that would enable me to pull the trigger on Ellenberger, but the opposite happened and it made me not what to bet on him. Against Saffiedine he didn't look like he was trying to win. He landed a few big bombs, but aside from that he just kind of coasted to a loss and I hate betting on guys that do that. 

I think a big factor to take into consideration here is that Barberena has a granite chin, which somewhat takes Ellenberger's one punch KO threat out of the equation. Of course Ellenberger might still catch him with something big, but it makes it much less likely than against guys like Brown, Thompson and Saffiedine who we know have been a bit fragile in the past. All those guys are prone to getting rocked and hurt bad in fights. 

I don't mind gambling on guys that are second best in a fight if I feel like they could raise their game or I feel like they will really fight for our money. In Ellenberger's case I don't feel like he will do either. Barberena is not very good, but he's tough and young and that's probably all you need to beat Ellenberger at this stage in his career.

It's a weird fight. I honestly don't know what to do. The odds are off but I don't feel at all confident that Ellenberger will win this. Barberena is a warrior and he'll probably find a way to turn this into a dogfight and finish Jake. Skill for skill he's second best everywhere but even since Ellenberger's win over Koscheck he has showed clear signs that he's not there mentally anymore. I think I am probably going to reluctantly pass on this one.


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BarneyDog
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12/08/2018 1:50 pm  

All things considered, i believe pass this is the right decision here. I think the bookies have faded Ellenberger 100% giving him no credability at all. As a cosequence they have made Barberna a huge favourite at 1.25 which should nevver be the case. The injury to Barberena may play a factor in this fight but as you say, he is a tough MF and has a beard. With Ellenberger home town advantage and most likely giving tickets to all his family and freinds, I will be intruged to find out if we missed a huge dog on a plate. But when money is involved, i think there are other dogs we could trust to get the job done. I am digging to try and find out more, in the process came across this video and am intuguednto know what Full time mma is hiding, FF to the part where he discusses this fight and he was going to put out some information then decided against it, he has deliberately cut out a section.


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BarneyDog
(@barneydog)
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Joined: 4 years ago
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12/08/2018 1:50 pm  

All things considered, i believe pass this is the right decision here. I think the bookies have faded Ellenberger 100% giving him no credability at all. As a cosequence they have made Barberna a huge favourite at 1.25 which should nevver be the case. The injury to Barberena may play a factor in this fight but as you say, he is a tough MF and has a beard. With Ellenberger home town advantage and most likely giving tickets to all his family and freinds, I will be intruged to find out if we missed a huge dog on a plate. But when money is involved, i think there are other dogs we could trust to get the job done. I am digging to try and find out more, in the process came across this video and am intuguednto know what Full time mma is hiding, FF to the part where he discusses this fight and he was going to put out some information then decided against it, he has deliberately cut out a section.


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Allsopp
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Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3219
14/08/2018 5:37 pm  

I'm still hunting for bets for UFC Fight Night 135. I'm interested in a lot of fighters at the moment but haven't found anything concrete yet. I will keep digging.


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