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UFC Fight Night 65 Betting - Hunt vs Miocic  

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Iamcloud
(@iamcloud)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 285
06/05/2015 3:20 pm  

Can't agree with you guys about Whitaker. Sure both fighter are young and still developing. However, this is Whitakers second middelweight fight. Who has he beaten so far? Ultimate fighter reject Clint Ester? How about the one dimensional wrestler Colton Smit?

He is going up against a big, tough and fast middelweight with high level experience. Their is no shame in losing against the walking steroid farm Romero. Against Boetsche he was winning up until he got caught. I will go ahead and say he will finish Whitaker by round 2 TKO.


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Jesse
(@jesse)
Welterweight Champion
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Posts: 1252
06/05/2015 4:45 pm  

i agree with you about tavares cloud, well see. and you make good points on hunt puczi, i also think stipe is overrated , yea people improve, i know he wasnt training full time, but i dont care, i cant get past that struve loss, i always thought struve was garbage. and i thought werdum was a lock, and hunt was in bad shape, but he was still so dangerous, as allsopp said at the time hunt gives a whole new meaning to the term punchers chance, and stipe doesnt have as many ways to win as werdum did, and its in australia, im already in on stipe, but quite nervous about it,


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JIBBBY
(@jibbby)
Black Belt
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Posts: 102
06/05/2015 8:17 pm  

^ Hunt was actually dominating Werdum that entire fight until he finally got caught with that up knee.. The over 1.5 might be a decent play but the power of Hunt early on is scary and that could blow it up with one solid punch to Stipes chin.. Hunts chin also has been steadily fading fight to fight as I don't believe it's granite anymore either... Just saying..


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Allsopp
(@mma)
Member Admin
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 3220
06/05/2015 10:39 pm  

[quote quote=15089]Can’t agree with you guys about Whitaker. Sure both fighter are young and still developing. However, this is Whitakers second middelweight fight. Who has he beaten so far? Ultimate fighter reject Clint Ester? How about the one dimensional wrestler Colton Smit?

He is going up against a big, tough and fast middelweight with high level experience. Their is no shame in losing against the walking steroid farm Romero. Against Boetsche he was winning up until he got caught. I will go ahead and say he will finish Whitaker by round 2 TKO.
[/quote]

If this fight was taking place on neutral territory I would agree with you to some extent, but I believe it's going to be very difficult for Brad Tavares to win this fight because he doesn't do enough to definitively win rounds. Whittaker is the complete opposite because he fights at a high pace, he constantly comes forward and he's also very aggressive. With home advantage on Whittaker's side, I don't see how Tavares is going to be able to win a decision in Australia.

I also feel it's extremely unlikely that Brad Tavares will beat Whittaker inside the distance because he's only won 1 fight inside the distance in 11 career fights in the UFC. This single stoppage victory came against Phil Baroni back in 2011. Robert Whittaker is very durable and has a very good chin. For these reasons I feel Tavares gaining a stoppage victory over Whittaker is very unlikely.

If this fight was taking place anywhere else in the world, I'd see this fight as being much closer to a coin toss, but with Tavares' lack of urgency and finishing power, I feel that it's going to be extremely difficult for him to beat Whittaker, when Whittaker has home advantage on his side.

Tavares' inability to put his stamp on rounds will cost him when he fights more aggressive guys like Robert Whittaker.


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Allsopp
(@mma)
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06/05/2015 10:59 pm  

[quote quote=15090]i agree with you about tavares cloud, well see. and you make good points on hunt puczi, i also think stipe is overrated , yea people improve, i know he wasnt training full time, but i dont care, i cant get past that struve loss, i always thought struve was garbage. and i thought werdum was a lock, and hunt was in bad shape, but he was still so dangerous, as allsopp said at the time hunt gives a whole new meaning to the term punchers chance, and stipe doesnt have as many ways to win as werdum did, and its in australia, im already in on stipe, but quite nervous about it, [/quote]

I get what you're saying mate and I'm not completely sold on Miocic either, but I feel that it's unfair to judge Miocic for his performance against Struve. That fight took place back in 2012 and a lot has changed since then. Since that fight Miocic has gone the distance with Roy Nelson, Gabriel Gonzaga and Junior Dos Santos, all of which hit very hard. He's shown superb striking defence in each of those fights to avoid getting knocked out. 3 years is a long time in a fighter's career. Donald Cerrone got his ass kicked by Nate Diaz 9 months before Miocic got TKO'd by Struve. There's no way that this would happen now.

I absolutely get that Miocic could get KTFO'd by Hunt inside 60 seconds, but this is how I look at fights like this...

Hunt is 5 ft 10 and walks around at well over 265 lbs. He has the wingspan of a Welterweight / Middleweight, which makes him very small for Heavyweight. He's also 41 years old and carries a lot of excess body fat. This puts an incredible amount of stress on his body and there's no way he can continue to perform the way he has.

In contrast, Miocic is currently fighting in his prime at 32 years old. He's got a natural Heavyweight wingspan and a long reach. He's also got a solid chin and he's only been knocked out once in his career.

Hunt only has one way to win this fight. He has to knock Miocic out and that won't be easy because Miocic has shown that he has a good chin and he's durable. He also has solid footwork, a speed advantage and an 8 inch reach.

Miocic has overwhelming advantages over Hunt physically, technically and athletically.

Being able to bet Miocic at around 1.50 | -200 gives us a 50% return on our money, which I feel is an absolute gift when you take into account the advantages that he has over Hunt.

I see this fight as a very similar fight to Overeem vs Nelson, except Miocic actually has a good chin.

I feel that sometimes people see a path to victory for an underdog and they jump all over it without taking the bigger picture into consideration.

Hunt can absolutely knock out any man on the planet, but given the circumstances, I feel it's unlikely he'll knock out Miocic. I believe a 50% return on our money is a great value return when you weigh up the risk vs reward in this fight.

If I lose my bet on Miocic I'm cool with that because I feel he's good value. All we can do is consistently make the right decisions and hope that we turn a profit when it's all said and done. I think we will be good here though mate.


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Jesse
(@jesse)
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06/05/2015 11:23 pm  

[quote quote=15099]it’s unfair to judge Miocic for his performance against Struve.[/quote]

understood, but i think it is something to consider, i believe a guy like cain would beat struve easily even before he knew mma, just off his natural toughness and wrestling, i think you could wake cain out of a coma, and hed beat struve on his best day, so stipe to me isnt at that level, and you can improve your defence, but you cant improve your chin......and besides kicks , which cowboy didnt use, diaz has superior boxing then cowboy, so he won cause cowboy wanted to box, i think that would happen again if cowboy had the same stupid game plan.....anyway, Go stipe!


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Disil
(@disil)
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07/05/2015 12:38 am  

I think this is even better (for us) than Overeem/Nelson, because unlike Hunt, Nelson actually is a good grappler and can be dangerous on the ground, whereas in this fight, Stipe, a very accomplished wrestler, could take Hunt down over and over again, making use of his superior athleticism and age.


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JIBBBY
(@jibbby)
Black Belt
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Posts: 102
07/05/2015 1:03 am  

^ More I think about this Hunt/Stipe brawl and considering the fact that both have great punching power early on in fights, also that Mark Hunt's chin and cardio is arguably fading fight to fight at age 41 makes ya think there could be some value in the 1.5 under round bet at +155.. Knock out could be coming early on for either guy perhaps.. Hmmmm? Remember 8 of Stipes 12 wins have come by way of KO..

If Stipe is able to utilize his wrestling and take down the much bigger Hunt that probably blows up my under 1.5 round bet theory.. Both like to stand and bang and Hunt showed decent take down defense in recent fights is my thinking anyways...

UFC Fight Night 65 - Heavyweight 5 rounds - Adelaide Entertainment Centre - Adelaide, South Australia - UFC TV
Sat 5/9 1001 Mark Hunt +200 o1½ -175
11:59PM 1002 Stipe Miocic -240 u1½ +155


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SlopppyDirtybird
(@sloppy2ndz)
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07/05/2015 2:28 am  

jibbby i really like the overs in that fight personally, with the exception of maldanado, stipes 1st round k.os have all come against low level competition.
and ol hunto has gone over 1.5 in 3 out of his 8 fights, and he was 4 seconds away from clearing that in his last fight, which he fought bloody well in.
his tdd is a HELL of a better than he gets credit for, i can see stipe trying to clinch and work a td against the fence but you think he would be content sitting at range and utilizing his significant reach advantage.


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JIBBBY
(@jibbby)
Black Belt
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07/05/2015 2:42 am  

[quote quote=15118]jibbby i really like the overs in that fight personally, with the exception of maldanado, stipes 1st round k.os have all come against low level competition.
and ol hunto has gone over 1.5 in 3 out of his 8 fights, and he was 4 seconds away from clearing that in his last fight, which he fought bloody well in.
his tdd is a HELL of a better than he gets credit for, i can see stipe trying to clinch and work a td against the fence but you think he would be content sitting at range and utilizing his significant reach advantage.
[/quote]

I know what you are saying and just about all the mma heads on the forums like the over but Stipe is not a slow big Big Foot Silva on TRT that punches with slow volume when going the distance with Hunt in that past fight... I think these guys in Aussie land will come out guns a blazing, Stipe will finish or get finished just based on his fighting style.

Props are out on the fights..No way this fight goes 5 rounds anyways IMO... -460 might even be a steal at that price as crazy as that sounds...

Mark Hunt vs Stipe Miocic - Heavyweight 5 rounds - UFC Fight Night 65 propositions
Sat 5/9 1003 Hunt / Miocic goes 5 round distance +320
11:59PM 1004 Fight won't go 5 round distance -460
Sat 5/9 1005 Hunt wins inside distance +236
11:59PM 1006 Not Hunt inside distance -315
Sat 5/9 1007 Hunt wins by 5 round decision +1200
11:59PM 1008 Not Hunt by 5 round decision -2600
Sat 5/9 1009 Miocic wins inside distance -125
11:59PM 1010 Not Miocic inside distance -115
Sat 5/9 1011 Miocic wins by 5 round decision +350
11:59PM 1012 Not Miocic by 5 round decision -530
Sat 5/9 1013 Hunt / Miocic draw +12000
11:59PM 1014 Fight not a draw -36000


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 Anonymous
Joined: 51 years ago
Posts: 0
07/05/2015 3:29 am  

Lol @Jesse thanks for my weekly giggle! You don't care that he wasn't training full time? Of course why would you lol he's a professional mma fighter, training full times not very important :wacko: and great example with cain why dont you go rewatch the Kongo fight and tell my how many times he did the stanky leg back in the day...not to mention he got dropped in what a minute from a guy stipe ate punches from all night, to me if anyone is overrated and has a bad chin it's mr "brown pride" the ghost we haven't seen in how long? Stipe is on the rise so hedge with mark hunt first rd if youre that scared and stop whining all of us are in on stipe so chill worse comes to worst he pulls a move from his boy crocop and gets it done late


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Jesse
(@jesse)
Welterweight Champion
Joined: 6 years ago
Posts: 1252
07/05/2015 4:17 am  

Hey Scotty...The only trophy youll ever win

Am I ok :unsure: ,Too Far??


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Jesse
(@jesse)
Welterweight Champion
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Posts: 1252
07/05/2015 4:29 am  

Hey sorry guys if my comment that cain could wake out of a comma and beat struve was a lill inflammatory, that was kina Scottyish which in makes me wanna kick my own ass, so i apologize


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SlopppyDirtybird
(@sloppy2ndz)
Flyweight Champion
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Posts: 264
07/05/2015 4:38 am  

scotty ill have to disagree with your assessment of cains chin somewhat, now that fight was a long time ago so my memory is a touch hazy, but wasnt cain basically walking fwd into those punches? ate them, dropped to a knee (as most people would) then kept coming fwd hunting the td ? its fair to say the stanky leg was more a result of his below average striking defence (at the time) as opposed to his lack of chin.


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MMA Dog
(@thehbfgroup)
Flyweight Champion
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 355
07/05/2015 4:55 am  

Hey, I hate daniel kelly but does anyone else actually think he's gunna win a decision?

Sorry - but I had to take this for like .33 units

Kelly wins by 3 round decision* +470


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