UFC Fight Night 81 Betting - Cruz vs Dillashaw
[quote quote=24417]The X factor of the Cruz vs TJ fight is how much has the dominator improved in the last 4 years. You are all assuming he is the same guy that fought 4 years ago. His last fight clearly showed otherwise.
It's possible that Cruz could have improved since he was last active back in 2011, but within that time Cruz has suffered 1 groin tear and 3 ACL surgeries.
Recovery for an ACL tear takes on average 1-2 years and a groin tear can also take 6-12 months to fully recover from.
In the recent embedded video Cruz said it took him 9 months to recover from his first ACL tear and that he knew he would have to go through it all again when he tore his ACL a second time. 9 months is a very quick turnaround to recover from an ACL surgery, but at the very least we know that it took Cruz 18 months to recover from 2 of those ACL tears.
If we conservatively assume that it took at least another 18 months for him to recover from his groin tear and 3rd ACL tear, we can now assume that Cruz spent at least 36 months recovering from his injuries and rehabilitating his body.
It has only been 40 months since Cruz was last active back in 2011, which means he has hardly had any time to fully recover from his injuries, let alone improve his technique and develop as a fighter.
It's possible that Cruz could have improved since he was last active back in 2011, but based on the information we have it's very unlikely. The truth is, nobody knows if Cruz has improved or not. Not even Cruz really knows if he has improved, because he hasn't spent enough time in the Octagon in true competitive situations to shake off the ring rust, test his cardio and see if his fighting style is still effective.
Every bet we place is a gamble and we will always be able to find reasons to justify not placing a particular bet.
I feel like with all the information we have available, TJ Dillashaw at the current odds is one of the bets value bets we've had in a long time.
Even if you want Cruz to win or think Cruz will win, based on the information we have Dillashaw is absolutely the right bet. Win or lose, I'm comfortable knowing that we've put our money in a really solid position here.
I would love to see Dominick Cruz win, but I just don't see it happening based on all the information we have available to us.
I dont know cloud, how much can you really improve in 4 years while most of it spent rehabbing a broken hand, both acl's and a torn groin?
cruz hits a nice td in that mizugaki and then unloads the most dominant GnP i think we've ever seen from him,to me takeya either trusted his chin too much or didnt respect the dominant position cruz was in, because he did nothing to improve that turtle position (i guess he made the fatal assumption he was safe there) until he;d eaten like 6 right hands.
in the end whats sold me on TJ, is how cruz fought mighty mouse, i dont think he dealt well at all with a guy who could match him in the speed dept, could keep up with the pace he tried to set, and who didnt appear to be overwhelmed or confused by his movement. FWIW when the lines opened, i started looking at betting cruz, but tj has fought more recently, has got decent fight time under his belt, is training at elvavation and has the speed, movement,wrasslin, cardio and power to give cruz some serious problems.
thats my take on it anyway, (sorry for the wall of text) also toooootaly hitting TJ in rd 4 an 5 @23$ and 29$
lol allsop beat me to it
@MMA_Dog, I did not think of any specific tape of TJ at all, but I went back and examined Cruz again. I find him to be, not as good as I imagined/remembered, or as @Iamcloud points out, at least he Was not as good.
I agree there is a big X factor of course and I was very impressed with the quick fight he had in his last outing. I was leaning his way and I wanted to bet him. Takeya is not bad, but 8 other people beat him as well and he´s no on TJs level if you ask me.
I have to note that Cruz fought some pretty small guys, back in an age when mma was no where as developed as it is today. Before his long absence from mma (or actively competing), four of his last five opponents (except Faber!) are flyweights. So this will be a very different stylistic matchup than we have seen Cruz in in a very long time. We have never seen TJ matched up against anyone resembling Cruz (right?).
I´m going out on a limb and say that I think TJ has better footwork (and better striking) than what I see from Cruz. I think TJ has more power and will hurt Cruz more that he has been hurt before. I think I see quite a lot of holes in Doms game, where I expect TJ to be able to find his openings and capitalize.
I think Cruz is one of the sharpest analysts in the game, bare none. I have no doubt that he has paid close attention to the game and that he has evolved in the gym. But injuries play their part and they must have hampered his progression. I think TJ has picked Cruz apart as well and emulated him in the gym at alpha male.
Alpha male guys have not been to hot lately, but I think TJ leaving proves that he will be the exception.
The Soto fight is weird since they both had NO time to game plan and with the belt on the line, that is a tough spot to be loose and trust your training (since you have not done any training, for this opponent). I am a competing athlete on world level as well and I know the huge difference it makes, having to perform if I did not have enough time to visualize and prepare for a certain scenario.
Bla bla bla, tail or fade, this is just what I think will happen. I see a finish a lot of the time and a decision a lot. I am not betting big on the finish, but I put something on it. I have 5u on TJ now and if the odds keep dropping, I may ad one or even two more.
Looking forward to fight week, it was too long ago!!
I don't like to bet when there are a lot of unknowns as there are with Cruz, however I feel like Allsopp's right about the value here. Stylistically Dillashaw seems to have a lot of advantages: TD def, power, movement, etc. Given the uncertainty I wouldn't bet too heavy but it's certainly worth a standard bet, I think. Though I want The decisionator to win so maybe no bet after all.
anothony pettis + rumble johnson 20 units
You guys have very solid arguments on betting TJ. I can't argue with that. Cruz has been destroying TJ in every media exchange so I expect the odds to get better for Cruz come fight night. I will wait on it and bet TJ 🙂
I am on TJ hype train too, Cruz is great, but TJ is far better. If Cruz struggled in stand-up fight against Demetrious and Faber (Dominick dealt more punches, but was getting rocked), then imagine what TJ will do to him. I expect a knockout.
@Puczi, did you mean to ask me? Or maybe we said the same thing.
I probably meant if the odds get better on TJ, dropping on Cruz (the way they had when I posted).
Or maybe I was just getting second thoughts about how unfair it feels that we are consistently beating the bookies for their hard earned money? Your guess 😉
Urijah Faber picks TJ Dillashaw to win by knockout.
@Nordicflight i misunderstood you, I thought you will bet if TJ drops ("because that means he loses") 😀
Not sure if paddypower messed up their opening line last night, but I managed to get rosa to win for 2/1, he's now at 2/5
Gomez over Font tempting anyone?
His record of 6 first round ko's is impressive and Im not sure what clear advantages Font has to make Gomez the underdog...
Betting on tj is like betting on an open ended straght flush draw on the flop.