Dales WSL Surfing Tips
A brand new event starts in a few days in Newcastle, Australia
Surfing is tricky to bet on in the first round, because it involves 3 man heats and a surfer needs only to place 1st or 2nd to advance past the elimination round. So picking the winner is very hard in the first round because the surfer is aiming for either 1st or 2nd. It doesnt matter which to them as the only goal is to avoid the elimination round by coming 3rd. So my strategy is as follows.
I look for heavy fav's and bet against them by betting on the other 2 surfers. Its very very common for the best surfer to place second in these early rounds, sometimes even 3rd. So the logic behind the bets in the 1st round is to bet the 2 dog odds surfers who have a legit chance of winning. What usually happens is late in the round, if the heavy fav is 3rd, they will surf to snatch 2nd rather than surf risky to grab 1st, because 1st and 2nd both advance, no need to risk a huge air for 1st when a few safe strong turns will snatch 2nd and is valued the same. Also, when the heavy fav is safe in 2nd place, they will often sit on the surfer in 3rd with their priority to run the clock in order to take the best wave. Basically play defence rather than try and attack for 1st.
If you don't like losing, please don't tail, I have had success in the past but this event is brand new to the tour, so I am not too familiar with the wave.
Here's what I'm betting.
* 0.5 units on both Jadson Andre $5.50 & Morgan Cibilic $7.50 for a total of 1 unit
We are betting against Felipe Toledo who is one of the fav's to win the event, so its risky but I like the odds. Felipe is 1.3 which is very steep in a 3 man heat
* 0.5 units on both Matthew McGillivray $7 & Crosby Colapinto $9 for a total of 1 unit
We are betting against Gabriel Medina, who at $1.20, is mental. He is the better surfer, but he is notorious for slow starts to the year. Both of these surfers are good enough to win
I usually try to avoid betting the 1st round, because a 3 man heat is extremely hard to have strong conviction in. I have found this strategy is best, to just fade the heavy fav's. After this elimination round, once I have seen everyones performance and have been able to see how this wave breaks etc, I should have a better read for the following heats, so ill check back in just before the elimination round.
Good luck if you're tailing!
What a cool sport! My books don't offer odds on it but hoping one of my trillion streaming channels will show it. Cheers Dale, thank you for sharing! Would love to watch. Good luck on your wagers!
Thanks for the work 🙂
What type of bet is this....outright winner, heat winner?
neverind...I see now its a heat winner bet
Sounds cool, I won't tail for now but I'll defo be keeping my eye on this, good luck!
Dale that’s interesting. I love the logic in your breakdown.
Ive never bet on surfing but I’ve just tailed all bets.
GL mate LFGOO
Tailing all. Thanks Dale.
Cheers Dale good little profit there. Good job mate.
Nice hit on that today Dale.
Nice 2.5 unit profit so far after day 1. Was a slight sweat with Medina landing a huge air on the buzzer, but the $9 dog hit. I doubled down on him when the market pushed Medinas odds from 1.20 to 1.12 and Crosbys odds out to 11 from 9. Absolute madness!
No bets for tomorrow. Its is the elimination round involving 3 man heats again and nothing at all stands out in terms of the odds. So will pass on all the following heats until we get into the 2 man heats.
Cheers boys, congrats on those who tailed 🙂
Hey boys, sorry I've been MIA, Im away camping at the moment on Moreton Island
After todays action, I've been able to see what certain guys are bringing to this location and what form they are in.
The 1 bet I like tomorrow in the mens is
1U on Morgan Cibliac @1.72
He absolutely dominated today against the worlds best surfer. He's a local boy who knows this wave like the back of his hand and put up the best score of the event so far.
In the womens, I have 1 bet that I think the odds are off.
.5U on Keely Andrew at $3.10
She performed really well and is full of confidence after her most recent heat where she took a big name down.
Good luck to those who tail 🙂
@danegtaylor Scrap that mate i found Cibilic at Sportsbet at 1.80
Also Keely Andrew is 3.20 at Sportsbet too
I'm tailing both mate, cheers for the tip.... LFGO!
Nice Gucci thats value