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Horse Racing- Kentucky Oaks Day and Kentucky Derby Day

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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
Topic starter  

Horse racing during the big days is a betting passion of mine.  There is a great opportunity to make a score.  Also, there are many approaches to betting from conservative to wild betting.  The simplest most conservative approach is to pick a horse in each race to win, place (come in first or second, or show (come in 1st, 2nd or 3rd).  After more than 20 years betting the sport, I have developed some very complex betting strategies and don't think it is helpful to post those here.  Some day, I'll have a way to share that with those that are interested.  Last year was obviously quite amazing as I had my first 6 figure winning day in betting on the Saturday of Breeder's Cup.  Because of that, some of you have requested that I share my thoughts on the big days for horse racing this year.  After giving some thought to how to be helpful, I'll share a few basic insights.

First- how do I decide what days to play horse racing?  Answer:  When there is the most liquidity and most dead money.  The three biggest events are Kentucky Derby weekend (both Friday and Saturday), Belmont Stakes day (in June) and Breeder's Cup weekend (where the big payday came last year in November).  For those of you that know horse racing, obviously there are international days/meets that are great for wagering but I focus my attention on the American days as I understand them the best.

Kentucky Derby-  this is the most famous race in the US.  The race is run at Churchill Downs in the State of Kentucky on the first Saturday of May.  The entire day is filled with multiple races that will be televised.  Additionally, there is a ton of liquidity on the race card the day before the Derby, known as Kentucky Oaks Day.

The way I can be most helpful is to share my selections for each race of each day.  Full Disclosure: I will only wager a small amount on the straight win picks that I put forward here.  My money will go to bigger paydays with the Pick 4s, Pick 5s and other exotic wagers that are more complex and typically involve picking the winners of multiple races for a bigger payday.

Allsopp uses a great format as a betting guide in the UFC.  The most likely to win, and the best value.  For each race on Friday and Saturday, I will post both those picks on this thread. Horse racing is a hard game, harder than the UFC in that most days are losing days financially but the winning days can more than make up for the losing days.  It's a long game approach and I view my results on an annual basis after betting the three big race weekends.

If you have any questions about the Kentucky Derby, other races on the Friday or Saturday card, on my thoughts on any individual horses, feel free to post them here and I'll be happy to answer.  I hope this thread is helpful if you want to have a little fun with the horses this week!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
 

That sounds great JB. Thanks for the hard work mate. I'd be happy to learn about it. 


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Swimwiththesharks
(@swimwiththesharks)
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Exciting! LFG!


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JB826
(@jb826)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
Topic starter  

Friday Kentucky Oaks Card

All odds are morning line and will change as the money comes in.  Be aware that you don't get the price you bet the horse if you bet through a horse racing site.  

Race 1  Most likely to win #1 Favorite Sin 5/2, Best Value #6 Mucho Macho Momma 8-1

Race 2  Most likely to win #6 Seaside Retreat 7/2, Best Value #2 Front Street 5-1

Race 3  Most likely to win #4 Australasia 4-1, Best Value #4 Australasia 4-1

Race 4  Most likely to win #10 Another Woman 7/2, Best Value #6 Malloy 10-1

Race 5  Most likely to win #4 Ever Dangerous 5-1, Best Value #1 Temple 5-1

Race 6  Stakes Racing Begins, The Alysheba Most likely to win #6 Maxfield 4/5, Best Value #5 Roadster 9/2

Race 7  The Edgewood: Most likely to win #6 Aunt Pearl 4/5, Best Value #2 Gift Island 7/2

Race 8  The LaTroien: Most likely to win #2 Shedaresthedevil 5/2, Best Value #1 Envoutante 6-1

Race 9  The 8 Belles: Most likely to win #3 Souper Sensational 6-1, Best Value #6 Souper Sensational 6-1

Race 10 The Turf Sprint: Most likely to win #3 Fija 4-1, Best Value #1 Johnny Unleashed 10-1

**Race 11  The Kentucky Oaks: Most likely to win #10 Malathaat 5/2, Best Value #5 Pass the Champagne 15-1

Race 12  Most likely to win #8 More Than Usual 7/2, Best Value #9 Woke Up To Aces 5-1

Race 13  Most likely to win #3 Magic Quest 9/2, Best Value #12 Smith's Point 5-1


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
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Topic starter  

Most likely horses to win on the day (my multi race bets will key off these horses):

Race 3: #4 Australiasia

Race 7: #3 Aunt Pearl

Race 8: #2 Shedaresthedevil

Race 9: #3 Souper Sensational


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
 

Thanks JB! Tailing all. Hopefully I did it right lmao.

LFG!


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 119
 

@jb826 Tried to parlay those 4 horses but can’t find them all??


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Topic starter  

Gucci, your site might not offer the non stakes races.


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Posts: 141
 

365 had them all for me 


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
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Posts: 119
 

@benmooney85 Fuck me im clueless then lmaooooo

Horses just not my thing lol


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Posts: 141
 

search churchill downs on 365


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HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
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Posts: 51
 

lets go


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JB826
(@jb826)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
Topic starter  

Kentucky Derby Day Picks

Race 6:  Most Likely Winner: #4 Zofelle 2-1; Best Value: #2 She's Got You 10-1

Race 7:  Most Likely Winner: #7 Gamine 1-5 (Don't try to beat her and don't bet it unless you have to) 

Race 8:  Most Likely Winner: #3 Jackie's Warrior 3-1; Best Value: #12 Joe Frasier 12-1

Race 9:  Most Likely Winner: #13 Scarlett Sky 4-1; Best Value: #14 Palazzi 10-1

Race 10:  Most Likely Winner: #9 Whitmore 7-2; Best Value: #12 Endorsed 12-1

Race 11:  Most Likely Winner: #5 Domestic Spending 9-2; Best Value: #6 Digital Age 8-1

**Race 12 KENTUCKY DERBY:  Most Likely Winner: #14 Essential Quality 2-1; Best Value: #18 Super Stock 30-1


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
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Posts: 119
 

@jb826 Cheers JB 

Who would you be betting from those??


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JB826
(@jb826)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
Topic starter  

It's horse racing so all of them in one way or another :).  If you just have to pick one horse per race,  I would take the recommended "best values" and hope to hit one or more.  One should pay for all the other bets and then some, but they are longshots.

If you want to have a better chance at winning each race, go with the most likely to win.  Some people just like to see winning tickets, even if they are small.


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