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JB826
(@jb826)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
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OK boys...opening day is tomorrow.  Going to give the MLB a serious go this year.  Am all caught up on my research and have built power rankings.  I won't be betting big until some sustained success is achieved. With bball, I could see you tailing the picks for units but please view this as more of an entertainment thread and feel free to chime in with you own picks.  I have a special passion for baseball as a fan even though most people think it's boring.  Being a numbers guy, this sport stands out.  OK here we go!

Opening Day- I have three picks, all based upon my belief that the lines are off due to power rankings I have spent this offseason creating.  All No. 1 pitchers against No. 1 pitchers so it's such a fun day.  I will bet mostly money line with occasional over/unders and run line bets.  When I recommend a run line bet, I will explain what that is (it's similar to a point spread in other sports)

Twins -110 over the Brewers

Cardinals -105 over the Reds

Braves -110 over the Phillies

Opening Day is one of those sports holidays for me so I'll be parked in front of the TV enjoying the festivities.  Best of luck if you tail, you may need it 🙂


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HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 51
 

lets ride!!!!!!!!

Ive been playing baseball since I was 10.  Been my favorite sport for since I knew what a favorite sport was.


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
Topic starter  

Hiltzy that’s awesome man! I played through HS and now my son, who is 14 is playing. It’s a family passion. LFG amigo!! Btw- I am really high on your Blue Jay’s this year. Vlad looks great. I’ll be watching that game tomorrow to start.


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HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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im a little skectched....injuries starting to his us already.  we definitely opened the wallet this off season for some talent though.  Im excited for my jays for sure.  Hopefully some time this year they will actually get to play in Toronto lol.


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
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Yeah what are your thoughts of them playing in that Florida park? 


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
 

Tailing JB. Small at first but lets see how things go.

Good luck boys!


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 119
 

Nice JB I’ll have a little stab 


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
Topic starter  

LFG Moons and Gucci!! Yeah small and first...I figure I'll need about a week to see how this season is shaping up and then hopefully this will become a success


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
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Bad luck day 1. Lost two extra inning games including the Twins  blowing a 3 run lead in the 9th.

1-2 with -1.05u profit

 

Do have a game for tomorrow. Rays starting pitcher had success against the Marlins last year while their starter struggled against the Rays in rare inter league  action.

Market undervaluing the defending American League champs.

Tampa Rays -120 money line.

may add one more later. Cheers


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
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Late add...Chicago White Sox at Even money to beat the LA Angels.  Keuchel is a better starting pitcher than Heaney. White Sox blew a late lead to the Angels last night and will be wanting to get this one back


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
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Sweeeep!! 2-0.  All five picks have been strong positions, with one of our two losers being a brutal last inning bad beat.  

3-2 Overall with a 0.78 unit profit overall.  

Saturday April 3 (US date)

Rangers +140-  two bad teams with good offenses playing.  Rangers have a Japanese pitcher making his US debut that they spent a fortune to sign.  He has 7 pitches in his arsenal. Worth a shot as a dog.

Pirates +151- Pirates seem to be a possible surprise team this year as many had them pegged as one of the worst in the MLB. They could be closer to a .500 team.  Facing the Cubs and their starter Jake Arietta, the market is betting the Cubs as if this were the 2015 Jake Arrietta. It is not and this game is closer  to 50/50 ranter than Pirates only having a 39% implied probability. Solid dog position.

 Braves -110- Playoff star pitcher Morton debuts for the Braves and -110 is a good number to even the score against inferior division rival.

White Sox FIRST FIVE INNINGS OR FIRST HALF ONLY -120 v Angels. Lance Lynn is the White Sox starter, much better than the Angels pitcher but once he leaves the game Angels offense is dangerous. Betting white Sox first 5 innings.

LFG!!!


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 119
 

JB just woke up and missed the Rangers one but hit the Pirates live and the others 

LFG BABY!!


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JB826
(@jb826)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
Topic starter  

Brutal day. Rangers starter did exactly what we hoped, offense generated a 4-0 lead and the bullpen + defense blew up our lead. No more betting the Rangers till they get that bullpen under control.

White Sox pitcher dominated the first five innings only to have one of the worst defensive plays of the decade (ball bounced off the outfielders head) blow the lead and force us into a push.

I just whiffed in the Braves and Pirates as their offenses decided to stay in bed.

0-3-1 on the day for -3 units.

Record in the year is -2.78 units. Win/Loss record won’t be as relevant in baseball as we are taking a lot of money lines.

taking the day off to regroup and let more season stats accumulate. Will fire again tomorrow. Happy Easter!


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JB826
(@jb826)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
Topic starter  

MBL is ready to roll!  Been waiting for the first cycle of games to finish so we can get a feel for who is hot, who is struggling, which pitchers are firing, which bullpens are really questionable and taxed already. 

Today we have enough data to answer some of those questions and have some favorable matchups.  Took Sunday off and didn't post either of my plays yesterday. But today I am raring to go.  Spiz and I worked through today's scenarios last night.  Here is my disclaimer...rarely will I ever post multiple plays without a few dogs mixed in.  However, today is one of those days where the better team has their best pitcher going and need to win, mostly with full strength bullpens to back them up.  So we are eating chalk and laying the wood today.

STRONGEST PLAYS:

White Sox (Giolito) -137 over Seattle Mariners.  Giolito is a Cy Young candidate, meaning he is one of the best pitchers in baseball this year.  I rate the White Sox as a top 5 team in the American League...they have struggled to a 2-3 start but beat up on the Mariners last night without using the best of their bullpen.  Now they fire their best pitcher with a full pen behind them.  The Mariners are 2-2 but are throwing James Paxton who is an older journeyman who is very likely to give up around 3 runs over 5 innings based upon his last 5 starts.  White Sox offense should score 4-6 runs. That sort of lead should be way more than enough for their pitching to hold on today.  This is a really good money line and is my fav bet of the year.  Recommending a 1.5 unit bet which will be boosted to 2 units when the starting lineups come out if they are full strength.  I will post that in about 10 hours.

Tampa Rays (Glasnow) -152 over the Boston Red Sox FIRST FIVE INNINGS ONLY.  Basically the same analysis as the White Sox game above with the difference being the White Sox bullpen is a bit better as is their hitting.  The upside for the Rays is that the Red Sox are worse than the Mariners and it is shocking that the Red Sox starting pitcher, Perez, is still in the majors.  1u for now. If the Rays are full strength when the lineup comes out, I am bumping to 2u.  I think the starting pitching advantage is so strong that I recommend a first half/first 5 innings only wager on this game.

Dodgers (Kershaw) -164 over the Oakland A's. The best team in baseball has their #1 starter going tonight.  Kershaw looked great in his debut this year up until the point that Dodgers Numbnut manager, Dave Roberts, kept him in the game two batters too long.  Clear momentum shift and I knew I should have live bet that game but it was too early in the year.  Kershaw will come back looking to get a W and the Dodgers dominated the struggling As (who are 0-5 to start the year) last night.  A's bullpen is already a bit shot and they went 5 deep in the bullpen last night. Dodgers bullpen is fresh and ready to go.

0.25u parlay-  Take the White Sox and Rays and throw in the Yankees and Dodgers in a moneyline parlay that will pay +500.  I would not play the Yankees straight up as they are -300 and in baseball that is not playable except as parlay fodder.  

If that is not enough action for you, I also likely to recommend betting the Nationals with ace Max Scherzer on the mound at -130 FIRST FIVE INNINGS ONLY. Braves were swept by the Phillies and are really struggling on offense.  I don't see that getting better against Scherzer, although I could see the Braves waking up in the second half of the game when Scherzer exits.  Nationals picked up Kyle Schwarber in the off season in LF with a nice bat and have possibly the best young hitter in baseball, Juan Soto.   HOWEVER THIS IS NOT AN OFFICIAL BET YET. I AM GOING TO WAIT 6 MORE HOURS FOR OFFICIAL LINEUPS AS THERE IS SOME QUESTION IF SOTO, SCHWARBER AND STARLIN CASTRO ARE QUESTIONABLE BECAUSE OF THE COVID PROTOCOLS.

So I am waiting for lineups to possibly add to White Sox, Rays and to add the Nationals.  Best of luck if you tail..this could be a great day of baseball.


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Posts: 215
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I am not betting the Nationals game. Schwarber is out and too many unknowns about the Nats lineup with the Covid situaiton.


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