JB's MLB Picks
Got in, thanks JB!
Betting a couple of solid dogs in MLB today
Monday, June 28 (USA)
Giants +155 FIRST FIVE INNINGS- vs. Dodgers very even starting pitching matchup and Giants have been awesome lately (maybe best team in baseball).
TIGERS +117 FIRST FIVE INNINGS- yes the Tigers are bad but this seems like a crazy pitching mismatch. Tigers young stud pitcher should shut down the Indians while Tigers offense could light up Indians pitcher.
Rules crackdown is altering the game. MLB umpires are checking pitchers every game for illegal substances that affect spin rates. Drastically affecting pitcher performance. Until we discover who the cheaters are it is going to be difficult to cap pregame. Going to pause pregame betting and move to live betting when we actually see how the spin rates are affected in-game. Will move back to pregame betting after we have had about a month of results from the new crackdowns.
Update on the year. 55-48 (53%) with 2.38u profit. Moons has thrown down a challenge and I am back posting picks. Todays picks will be up in about 4 hours. LFG!!!
Can't wait mate LFG paper champ 😆 🤣
Thursday, July 22
Atlanta Braves -132 on the road against Philadelphia Phillies 1u. Braves played a very good series against a solid Padres team and now come back to the division to take on rival Phillies. Phillies lost a heartbreaker last night to the Yankees while at the same time burning through almost all of the bullpen. Braves starting pitcher Morton pitches better on the road than at home. Braves hit left handed pitching well and are facing a lefty, Matt Moore. Phillies also hit right handed pitching worse than left and Morton is a rightie.
Risk factor is that the Braves don't hit that well on the road. Also Braves aren't great on the road, while the Phillies have a 27-17 home record. Given the Phillies have to be flat today and have no bullpen left, I favor Braves at around 60% so -132 is good value.
Gucci I wanted to see the Braves attack the Phillies tired bullpen so I took full game. Hope you got in on the F5 though, it is looking good atm.
Recap 56-48 (54%) with 3.14u profit. Braves win easy 7-2. Phillies starter clearly felt the pressure of having to carry his role plus the bullpen and caved early nice sweat free winner. Back soon with today's action.
@jb826 I saw your Braves post in my email yesterday morning/midday and had a 3 leg parlay; Braves ML, Padres ML, and the Dodgers & Giants over 5.5. I used a 50% Boost at DK and got +439. Thanks a ton for the insight to help me better see your bet and the reasoning. Much much appreciated, made my parlay pick 100% more clear.
- Zackery -
Friday, July 23
Angels -123 over Twins Full Game at 1u. Twins just lost their best hitter Nelson Cruz yesterday in a trade. This is devastating for a team that was already one of the worst in the division. Today the Twins are using pitcher J. A. Happ who is one of the worst pitchers in the league. The Angels offense is stacked even without Trout back yet. Ohteni due to blow up offensively. Angels are a good hitting team that matchup just fine on the road and against lefties. Great spot to back the Angels and fade the Twins.
The risk factor is that the Angel starting pitcher Cobb, who has solid numbers overall, tends to struggle a bit on the road and this game is in Minnesota. The Twins also have a slightly better bullpen. The bullpen is priced into the odds so F5 isn't really an option here. I like the Angels in the 60% range so -123 at an implied probability of 55% represents 5% value so this is a good spot imo.
Game 2 Astros Full Game win over Rangers parlayed with Kyler Phillips at +105 at 2u. Rangers are truly horrible and Astros are one of the best teams in the league. Game is in Houston and Texas is even worse than normal on the road. Division game where the Astros need a win to distance themselves from second place A's. Not even sure the Rangers are trying to win at this point as they are looking to deal players for prospects as the trade deadline looms and are also inching closer to a better draft pick with each lose. Kyler Phillips is a very talented young prospect who is facing Paiva, moving up in weight class. I see Phillips as better than Paiva everywhere but -280 is a tough number to eat without a parlay partner. This sets up as one of my fav MLB/MMA parlays of the year and I will hit it for 2u.
Tigers First 5 innnings only over Royals -105 1u. Tigers are the hottest team in baseball and throwing a stud pitcher. Their bullpen is depleted so can't bet them full game but want to ride the hot streak and the solid starting pitcher. KC throwing Bubic as their pitcher. He is ranked the worst starter throwing today by fangraph. The risk factor is that the Royals hit very well at home and are playing pretty well for a last place team in the division, while the Tigers have had less success on the road over the course of the season. But with the Tigers winning 7 in a row and catching them at even money, I think this is great value for a team that should be -130 to -140 imo in F5. Don't bet full game or three way. If it's a tie we want the push.
appreciate it as always JB