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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 297
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It's time to get back into baseball. The playoff chase is here, the contenders are playing well and the pretenders have thrown in the towel.  Keep in mind, variance is still a real thing and these are professionals with pride.  However, the last month of the MLB season is a historical money maker for me.  There are two spots today that I will combine to a parlay because of the odds:

 

Red Sox/Braves FULL GAME PARLAY -115 ... The Red Sox on paper look like they are really struggling and to some degree they are.  However, they have played an absolutely brutal schedule in the last couple of weeks.  They are very good at home (60% wins).  The Red Sox have their ace back for his second start of the season, Chris Sale.  Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball.  The Red Sox could have had his first two starts against anyone, but they chose the Orioles for his first game (more on them later) and the Rangers for the second start.  Sale and the Sox destroyed the Orioles.  Now they face the Rangers (23% wins on the road) who are dreadful this year.  They traded most of their limited talent at the trade deadline and are developing prospects and waiting for next years draft.  The price tag on this game is too high to risk money solo (-320) but is a fantastic parlay piece as I have the Red Sox at 80% implied odds.

Braves- are absolutely on fire lately. They have won 6 in a row and 9/10.  Need to keep winning to secure a division win and a playoff spot.  Thier second best pitcher Max Fried is on the mound to pitch.  The face the Orioles, who I love fading at the moment.  The Orioloes have lost 15 games in a row.  Yes 15 games.  And they really are that bad.  There is a small risk factor as they are pretty good against left handed pitching and Fried is a lefty.  But the Orioles are starting Keegan Akin who has an 0-7 record and gives up 8 runs per game. The Orioles have a 31% win rate at home while the Braves are 56% winners on the road.  Braves are -255 straight up and again I don't play baseball solo games at that odds so a small parlay is the only way for me to go.

The risk factors are that the Rangers pitcher is a pretty good young pitcher (but he does struggle on the road).  The Orioles hit lefties pretty well, but their pitching is atrocious.  I also hate taking games at big odds but we are now in the pennant chase and the good teams need to win every game for seeding and playoff guarentees.   At -115, this is a strong position for today's game.


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Zackery
(@galvanic)
Member Member
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 11
 

JB,

While I didn't know all of that awesome deep info, just by watching the games the last couple of months the writing was on the wall, isn't that what they say. Love your brain, appreciate your insight, and making this bet as well (very comfortably now)!

Best, 

Zackery


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MakDaddyCPD
(@makdaddycpd)
Blue Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 9
 

Thanks for the bets JB and your insightful breakdown I’ll have a bet on this tailing thankyou 🤙👊


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JB826
(@jb826)
Flyweight Champion Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 297
Topic starter  

Interesting looking First 5 inning play today.  Mets are spiraling out of of the playoff chase and imploded last night against the Giants.  The Giants had to burn most of their pen to get the comback victory, but this was a demoralizing spot where one the Met's ace pitchers had his team blow a beautiful performance.  Now the Mets have lost 8 of their last 10. Giants have been the best team in baseball.  Today looks like a great momentum steam play for the Giants.

Giants are starting Alex Wood, who is more than a serviceable starter.  Giants hitters are due to heat up, especially now that they are facing Mets starter Carrasco, who has been horrible for 4 starts in a row.  

Giants First 5 Innings -130 for one unit.

Risk factors are it's a road game at Mets who are pretty good at home. Wood also is not a high level pitcher so the Mets could hit him today.  But the Mets have to be in a bad place mentally after losing that game and the Giants have won 7 out of their last ten.  Won't touch the game for the full 9 innings because the Giants bullpen has been taxed lately.  First five innings at an implied probability of 56.5% seems like solid value especially when a tie gives you a push.

This post was modified 2 months ago by JB826

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kirby
(@insanekirby)
Purple Belt Member
Joined: 8 months ago
Posts: 30
 

Thanks for another hit JB!


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JB826
(@jb826)
Flyweight Champion Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 297
Topic starter  

Usually don't like playing MLB when I am going to bet MMA on the same day but can't pass up three spots.

 

Brewers -135 over the twins.  Eric Lauer is the starting pitcher for the Brewers who are playing for seeding in the playoffs as they are one of the best NL teams.  They are on the road to face the Twins who are pitching a 35 year old journeyman who is making his second start on the year.  Brewers are 42-21 on the road (66%) which is a fantastic road record. Twins are about 50% at home but are in last place in their division and not nearly as good as the Brewers.  Brewers hit well on the road in this type of scenario.  Have them at about 65% implied probability and the line is only showing them at 57%. Good value.

Yankees F5 BUT GIVE UP -0.5 run line so that you can get the odds down to -115.  Garrett Cole is the starting pitcher for the Yankees.  He is one of the best in the major leagues.  The Yankees are the hottest team in baseball winning 11 in a row.  They face the As who are also a playoff team but have now lost 5 in a row and in a major slump.  Big momentum play.  Only betting first five innings as the Yankees bullpen is taxed.  The danger with this bet is that you do not get a push if the game is tied after 5, but I think it's worth the risk in this case.

Parlay Rays with JJ Aldrich (UFC) for -129.  I know, I know I said I wouldn't do this MLB/UFC parlay again but the Rays are another of the best teams in baseball throwing one of their best pitchers tonight against Baltimore who is the worst team in baseball.  The risk is that the Orioles have won two in a row but that is coming off a 19 game losing streak.  The winning streak should end here as the Rays are one of the most consistent teams in the MLB and a serious world series contender.  The Orioles are particularly bad at home (32%).  I am trying to find more ways to get money down on JJ Aldrich as her odds have been bet down to -425 and I just can't bet that straight.  If you already have her with Muradov for a good price this may not be the play for you.  But I want more money down on her as this is one of the biggest MMA mismatches I have seen in a long time.


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 297
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Playoffs are here!!! First round is the wold card. It’s winner take all.

AL Yankees at Red Sox. One of the greatest rivalries in sports. These teams are very even. Slight edge to Yankees pitching, slight edge to Red Sox hitting plus they have home field.

 

NL tomorrow. Cardinals at Dodgers. Hottest team (Cardinals) v World Series favs. Dodgers act like they are already WS champs but don’t play like it. Cardinals have had a magical last 20 games and are winning all the games they aren’t supposed to. 

I’m betting both the dogs for one unit and fully believe at least one will win locking a profit.

Red Sox +113 1U 

Cardinals +180 1U


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
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Posts: 158
 

@jb826 I’m tailing JB

LFGOOOO


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JB826
(@jb826)
Flyweight Champion Member
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Posts: 297
Topic starter  

Great result on our two team Wild Card bet.  Hopefully everyone has a profit in the bank and a chance to absolutely crush tonight's game with a free roll on the Cards as a big dog.  We need a bit of luck but they are a live dog.

Add one more bet.   National League Divisional Series:

Milwaukee Brewers defeat the Atlanta Braves in the entire series (this is not a single game bet) at -140.  Here are my reasons. The NLDS is a best of 5 game series.  Pitching is the most important factor in these long series.  The Brewers have arguably the best starting pitching staff in baseball.  Woodruff and Burnes are unbelievable while Peralta and Lauer would be aces on many staffs.  Atlanta has a solid starting pitching crew also but is a solid level below the Brewers.  The bullpens are close as the Brewers post a 3.47 ERA and a 4.7 WAR while the Braves bullpen has a 3.77 ERA and a 4.3 WAR. The game changer is Hader for the Brewers who is an absolutely filthy lockdown closer.  He may be worth 2 wins if the Brewers are up late in the games.

The Braves have a slightly better offense with more power but two key injuries with Acuna and Ozuna out.  So this is not the same offense that made a push in last year's playoffs.  The Brewers have home field advantage.  I would rate the Brewers with around a 65% chance of advancing based upon the strength of pitching while the implied odds are at 58%.

Brewers -140 to win the Series for 1 unit. Understand, to win the bet the Brewers must win 3 games, not just one.


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JB826
(@jb826)
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We got the split we were looking for in the Wild Card games so the Playoffs have started off profitable.  The Dodgers definitely looked mortal and are facing the San Francisco Giants in the NLDS. 5 game series and the Giants have been a little ahead of the Dodgers all year long.  SF leads the league in HRs and has a very much underrated starting pitching staff. I do give the bullpen edge to the Dodgers but they had to use two of their best on Wed.  Top to bottom the Dodger offensive lineup is a bit stronger but the Giants are very capable of putting up quick runs.  The Giants won the series in regular season winning 10 and losing 9 to the Dodgers.  Particularly impressive is that the Giants were 7-3 against the Dodgers in the second half of the season when every game mattered.  They have proven over and over again that they are the Dodgers equals.  This is probably a 50/50 series but I conservatively put the Dodgers as a 55% favorite.  The Series line is +140 for the Giants giving them an implied probability of a 41.3% chance to win.  At plus money I am betting:

 

0.5 Units on the SF Giants to win the divisional series against the Dodgers at +140 or better.  This is not a one game bet, find the futures market bets in your book as this is a bet on who will win the entire series.  This is a high risk bet as the Dodgers are still the favorite to win the World Series.  I just think this is the worst possible matchup for them.


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Moons85
(@moons85)
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Posts: 217
 

found it LFG!


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JB826
(@jb826)
Flyweight Champion Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 297
Topic starter  

I am anticipating an absolute slugfest in Boston tonight for Game 3 of the Red Sox v. Astros series.  I've played the over 9.5 runs. Fenway is a hitters park and these two starters are not playoff quality pitchers.  Bullpens are being taxes to death already and both teams are hitting lights out.  Could be a 4.5 hr ballgame but enjoy the fireworks.

Game 3 10/18 Red Sox v. Astros Over 9.5 runs.


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Rolandito
(@rolandito)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 9
 

Thanks JB! What a bloodbath! 


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JB826
(@jb826)
Flyweight Champion Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 297
Topic starter  

$$$ on last nights game.  Over hit by the 4th inning.  Sweat free nine innings of baseball.

 

Game 4- new game, two new tired pitchers, same two red hot hitters.  Over is very likely to hit again.  Bullpens continue to get taxed.  Houston has the fresher bullpen but Grienke is pitching poorly at the moment for the Astros.  Pivetta is brilliant for the Red Sox but he is being used loads and will exit early.  The runs keep coming

Red Sox/Astros over 10 runs


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