LFA bets ChooseMF
Hey guys I have been researching some of the LFA fights that are gonna take place on the 19th of February and I think I found a good bet on the Gregory Rodrigues vs Anthony Adams match. I believe that if you can get Rodrigues for 2.20 or more it is worth a small bet.
Here is a brief analysis of the bet:
In terms of physical attributes nothing stands out too much - Rodrigues is the younger guy though.
When it comes to grappling, Rodrigues has a wayyy higher level Jiu Jitsu game, better wrestling and a better "grappling" gas tank. Although both fighters slow down a lot as the fight goes on, Rodrigues is still able to grapple relatively well, which stems from his roots in BJJ. The takedown defense of Adams is not terrible but its not great either and it gets much sloppier in the 2nd and the 3th round. I think that if Rodrigues really commits to a couple of takedowns he will get Adams down.
When it comes to striking, Adams should be the better striker on paper. However, though technically better, Adams doesn't really throw a lot of punches and doesn't really carry a lot of power in his shots as well(only one KO/TKO win from 10 fights and his opponent was pretty tired). On the other hand, the striking of Rodrigues seems to be improving from fight to fight, he throws considerably more punches than Adams and also seems to have more of a pop on his shots. Rodrigues also understands the importance of putting a stamp on rounds.
The risk factor with betting on this match is that Rodrigues was KOed in his last fight so we don't really know how he is going to react to that. Hopefully, he will now try to implement a more grappling heavy game plan but its also possible that he will perform very poorly. In general, Rodrigues likes to keep his right hand low and as a result he gets dropped and wobbled very often by a left hook/cross. However, since Adams is an orthodox fighter(his power hand is the right one) and doesn't have that much power in general I believe we shouldn't put too much stock into it. Lastly, I'm afraid that if the fight takes place entirely on the feet Rodrigues might slow down more than Adams.
All things considered I give Rodrigues at least a 50% chance of winning this fight, which means that if you can get him at 2.2, there is a 5% value there. Its reasonable to assume
I think the bookies have Rodrigues as an underdog because he lost his last bout by KO and because most people assume that Anthony Adams is high level just because he was able to last the full 15 with Kasanganay in his last fight. However, although Kasanganay is a good fighter he is a decision machine(he doesn't have even a single fight won by KO/TKO).
Note: I do this for fun so its very likely that the bout doesn't play out as I anticipate. If after reading the analysis you are convinced on betting Rodrigues please don't overextend or get angry if the bet doesn't win. I don't have a proven track record of making money on MMA so my advice is nothing more than the opinion of a noob.
Great write up Choose! Thank you!! LFG!!
well written choose.
Bad news Choose. Fight got cancelled... https://www.tapology.com/fightcenter/events/76630-lfa-100-altamirano-vs-mota
Ahh such a bummer I put a good 3 hours of research into it. But that's part of the game right, onto the next one...LFG!
ahh FFS....I was goin in on this too :(. well...we appreciate the work choose.