Moons85 NRL picks
 
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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
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Hey guys,

A bit of a tough beat yesterday with the Dragons losing and killing the last leg of our parlay but we move on. Heres the results for this week:

Straight/spread bets went 2-1 for a profit of 1.34u

Parlays went 0-2 for a loss of 1.5u

Insurance bets went 7-2 for a profit of 0.9u

atts bets went 0-4 for a loss of 2u

Weeks profit/loss of -1.26u

Season profit/loss of +7.15u

 

Also I will be getting rid of the atts bets for a while. They haven't been very good for us going 16-23-2 for a loss of -3.93u.

We already have 1 bet for this week of 2u on Eels to win @1.71. The odds have declined a lot so I hope you guys got on in time.

Good luck this week boys!

 


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

adding 1 more play for round 9 and there's possibly some more to come.

1u on over 38.5 points in the South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Melbourne Storm game

Both teams have scored over 34 points in their last 2 games. Rabbitohs have given up more than more than 50 points in their last 2 games at almost full strength and they are really hurt by injuries this week. There are 4 important players out for the Rabbitohs (Reynolds, Murray, Graham and Paulo) and only 1 for the Storm (Papenhuyzen) who's back up seems to be doing well.

Both teams are still very dangerous in attack but I think the recent shuffles in both teams will cost them in defence.


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

Hey lads I'm adding another bet for this weekend 

1u on the Wests Tigers to win against the Gold Coast Titans @2.45

Theres a lot of reasons to like the Tigers as underdogs here. Tigers attack has improved a lot over the season and they are making much less silly mistakes that have cost them in earlier games. For the Titans though that seems to be the opposite as the are worse than The Tigers in every area of negative play:

Errors - Tigers 79 vs Titans 90

Ineffective tackles - Tigers 102 vs Titans 119

Penalties conceded - Tigers 36 vs Titans 38

Handling errors - Tigers 65 vs Titans 73

I know these stats look close but I think being worse in all of them shows that the Titans can definitely struggle in this game if it becomes close. Tigers defence has also improved with them hitting a 93.7% effective tackle rate last week against the Dragons. That brings up another point, I believe the Dragons are a much better side than the Titans across the board and the Titans seem to be struggling with their fitness which seems to make them decent for about 20 mins and then they burn out. So with the form the Tigers are in right now I back them to get it done at home this weekend.

So all our bets so far this week are:

1u over 38.5 points in the Rabbitohs vs Storm game @1.90 (can get 037.5 on some sites now)

2u on the Eels to win against the Roosters @1.71 ( they are now @1.50 but you can parlay them with the panthers @1.10 for a boost in the odds for a safe bet)

1u Tigers to win against the Titans @2.45

I am still going through the games hunting for positions. I'm not very keen on many parlays this weekend because I can see a few upsets happening but I will see what comes up.

 

Cheers boys, good luck to all tailing.


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

Ok boys I am adding one parlay and one addition to an earlier play for this weekend. 

0.25u on Storm to win + Panthers to win + Eels to win + Tigers to win @5.75 (play each leg for insurance if it hasn't been bet yet)

and adding to our over in the Rabbitohs vs Storm game. I have been keeping a close eye on this game and there is no real good reason for this total to be dropping so much. The over in this game seem very simple to me from a stats and tape study point of view.

1u on Rabbitohs vs Storm total points over 35.5 @1.82

Good luck boys that will be all the pre-game bets from me this weekend. I've got some good leans for live betting if you catch us live for the games in the VIP chat. Hopefully @Guccisniper72 joins us who has been killing it live betting the NRL this year. 

LFG! 


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Black Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

So all bets for this weekend are as follows:

0.25u on Storm to win + Panthers to win + Eels to win + Tigers to win @5.75 

1u over 38.5 points in the Rabbitohs vs Storm game @1.90

1u over 35.5 points in the Rabbitohs vs Storm game @1.82

2u on the Eels to win against the Roosters @1.71 ( they are now @1.50 but you can parlay them with the panthers @1.10 for a boost in the odds for a safe bet)

1u Tigers to win against the Titans @2.45

 


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
 

Cheers Moons! I love a good dog.  Tailing.


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

@Guccisniper72 has found another good play for us boys 

1u under 46.5 total points in the Warriors vs Sea Eagles game tomorrow @1.90

LFG!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
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@Crox has found a great play for us boys. Sorry its a late one but the odds have moved in our favour. 

1u on Manly Sea Eagles -5.5 against the New Zealand Warriors @1.90

GL boys!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

A good round of NRL this week, the last leg of our parlay died again this week but I feel like i'm getting very close to cracking them. We hit some great live bets thanks to @Guccisniper72 and a big shout out to @crox39 for helping us find the Manly -5.5 bet. Thanks boys I really appreciate it and I hope everyone is enjoying the Rugby League. Here are the results for round 9 

Straight/Spread bets went 2-1 for a profit of +1.32u

Total points bets also went 2-1 for a profit of +0.72u

Parlays went 0-1 for a loss of -0.25u

Insurance bets went 3-1 for a profit of +0.03u 

Weeks profit/loss of +1.82u

Season profit/loss of +8.97u 

I am also considering increasing the sizes of the insurance bets because we have been getting so close to hitting the parlays. I am considering just making those bet the same size as the stake of the parlay. Do you think thats a good idea @Soppie ? We have gone 31-10 (67.74% win rate) on insurance bets for a profit of 2.78u. We have only had 1 losing week on these bets for a small loss of -0.31u. I don't have much experience with insurance bets so any advice would be helpful. 

Lets crush it again this week boys!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Black Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

Heres the first bet of the week so far for NRL boys 

1u on under 46.5 total match points @1.90 in the New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels game.

Both of these teams have very good attack but I am more focussed on their defence and set completion rate for this bet. Eels have an average points conceded percentage of only 13 points per game this year. Both teams are very low on the ladder this year (9 weeks in) for missed tackles with the Eels at the bottom of the ladder with 210 and the Warriors with 223. Warriors have a 89.8% in tackling efficiency this year with the Eels close behind at 89.5%. Last week both teams put up really good effective tackle rates last week with Warriors have 90.3% and the Eels 89.1%. So with both teams great defensive abilities I expect this to be a fairly low scoring game. 

I want to point out that every play this weekend will carry some risk due to it being magic round. This is a round when every team is playing away (besides the Broncos) in Brisbane at the same stadium. It's like a big festival weekend so this also means players will be distracted with a lot more media and fan obligations than usual. It's a round that is known for upsets. 

I am struggling to find many decent bets or parlays this week but I will keep digging and see what I can find. Hopefully some odds can move in our favour.

Good luck to all tailing!

 


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

I have found another play that I really like boys. I recommend getting on this ASAP before the teams get named and the line moves. 

1u on over 44.5 total points @1.90 in the Melbourne Storm vs St George/Illawarra Dragons game.

I think the Storm do very bad things to the Dragons this weekend. With Papenhuyzen coming back this really helps the amount of points they can score due to him being the try converter of the team. Ravalawa is also back for the Dragons so this is also good for the totals due to him and Dufty being good for a few points. Basically all of the stats are on the Storms side by a wide margin. 

 

 


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

Ok one more I like for this week and then hopefully when the teams get named I will do parlay. Again I would take this one ASAP.

1u on over 42.5 total points @1.90 in the Penrith Panthers vs Gold Coast Titans game.

Much like the Storm bet I expect panthers to win this game by a very wide margin. Last week the Panthers had a 63% possesion rate (Titans 49%), they also had an 81% completion rate (Titans 70%). There are many other stats that prove that the panthers should win by a lot here. They are in great form across the paddock and Titans are in a fairly bad slump right now.

Good luck boys!


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Black Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
Topic starter  

All the bets so far this week are:

1u on under 46.5 total match points @1.90 in the New Zealand Warriors vs Parramatta Eels game.

1u on over 44.5 total points @1.90 in the Melbourne Storm vs St George/Illawarra Dragons game.

1u on over 42.5 total points @1.90 in the Penrith Panthers vs Gold Coast Titans game.

GL!


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
 

I'm in!  My lines was actually 48.5 under on eels and 43.5 on Storm over but had to eat 43.5 on Titans over. Cheers and LFG!!!

 


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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
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Posts: 141
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43.5 should be fine JB Panthers should crush them

 


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