Moons85 NRL picks
I like the tigers to mate. I just need to do a bit of tape study because I missed those games when I was travelling. Tommy turbo being back for Manly is a worry and the Tigers are really inconsistant and they give up too many penalties.
Rabbitohs are missing Mitchell and Mansour so I don't know how they will respond this weekend. They have had a big re-shuffle in the back line and I think it could cost them. Thats why I have left them out of the parlays.
Brett Morris is back for the Roosters so I think they will stand up this week, he has at least 8 points in him on his own.
I think the Eels get it done but I don't think they do by more than 14 points. With the way the Broncos defended last week against the Panthers I think they are going to put up a fight. Stats lie in the favor of the Eels. Staggs is rumoured to be returning for the Broncos and Papali is in great form. I think its a bit of a risk on this play tbh.
Cheers, Moons! Tailing as man of these as I can.
I don't really like the -16.5 on the Panthers either @Guccisniper72
The Knights are a better side than the Broncos imo. They have only conceded more than 17 points once this year. They are getting used to the new halves combination and are starting to come into better form. I think the -16.5 is a bit of a risk, I don't like taking negative points above 12 points in Rugby League. Had a fair bit of bad luck with doing that last season. I think this carries more Risk than the other 2 plays
A bit more info on the Eels vs Broncos game.
Eels are right at the top of the list in errors, ineffective tackles and handling errors. Blake Ferguson and Reed Mahoney for the Eels are top of the list in handling errors and ineffective tackles. I think these stats are important for this game because it seems the Broncos coach has really lit a fire under them. They hit really good form last week against the Panthers who are the best attacking side in NRL. I think they will try to use the momentum of that in the next few games and they are growing in confidence which is the most important thing for defensive attitude. The Broncos have some guys returning from injury and the 2 that returned last week seemed to really lift the team. I think this game will be closer than most people may think.
@benmooney85 Good points Moons.... LFGO!
I might be at the Broncos match live on Friday night if not I’ll be live betting it.
Thats awesome mate I hope you enjoy it.
Heres a bit more info on the Roosters vs Dragons game.
The Roosters have only lost this year to 2 of the best teams in the competition. Even though they are injury ridden they are still playing good football. The Roosters engage and break the line much more than Dragons. The Rooster break more tackles and have much less handling errors. With Brett Morris being back it's going to help the Roosters quite a bit. He is a solid veteran and leader and helps the younger replacement players with their confidence. I think the dragons are a good side but they have showed a few holes in their game this year that the Roosters coach will be looking to exploit. I think 1.55 is a good price for them this week and I think they will win by more than 6 points for our parlay.
Boys I'm going to add another one
1u on James Tedesco atts @2.05 in the Roosters vs Dragons game
With 35 tackle breaks and 7 tries in 6 appearances this year and being considered the best player in the world right now by a lot of people (personally I think Nathan Cleary for the Panthers is the best player in the world but Tedesco is a close 2nd) I think he is a solid play this week. He didnt come through for us last week but I think these odds are in his favour.
Good Start to the weekend tonight with Burton coming through for us and @Guccisniper72 hitting some late pre-game/live bets. Things are going well.
Lets keep rolling guys!
I'm going to pass on the Tigers vs Manly game. I watched both of there last games and I cant trust the Tigers. No saying they can't win but they are really inconsistant and Manly seem to be pretty good form. The problem with the Tigers is that they are the kind of team that beats themselves with silly mistakes that give away penalties at crucial times. Its not like simple mistakes its more like stupidity that gets them in trouble they remind me of Kevin Holland 🤣 Manly have an 87% conversion rate compared to the Tigers 80% which can be important in games like this one. Manly are playing the smarter football right now and use their challenges very well. Also the Tigers right edges is terrible in defence.
Adding another play guys
It was a suggestion from @Guccisniper72 from earlier in the week
1u on -6.5 on South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Titans
I was a little worried earlier in the week with this play due to 2 of the Rabbitohs main starters out but I have learned watching the last games of both teams that this shouldn't be a factor. Rabbitohs are one of the best teams in the comp and their half back Adam Reynolds is in really good form. His kicking game is one of the best in the sport right now and the Titans struggled with kicks last week. I also think the Titans will be down on confidence after getting hammered by Manly last week. I think the Rabbitohs get it done boys!
GL to those tailing
You can still get -6 on sportsbet in Aus
Didn't check this post till just now. Damn! Nice pick Gucci and Moons. Glad you cashed.
Here are the results from round 7
Straight/Spread bets went 1-1 for a tiny profit of +0.1u
@Guccisniper72 came up with a solid play with the Rabbitohs -6.5 going 1-0 for a profit of +0.90u
ATTS bets went 1-3 for a loss of -1.7u
Parlays went 1-1 for a profit of +0.9u
insurance bets went 5-1 for a profit of +1.15u
(just as a side note I'm going to explain in the next post how I am doing the insurance bets and I will be more clear about these in the future. I have been going over the results from the season and have learnt I need to change some things and that will come in the next post)
weeks profit/loss of +1.35u
Season profit/loss of +8.41u
Boys I have also found 2 early plays and parlay for next week and I want to get these in early before the odds get steamed. They have been dropping even in the last couple of hours.
1st play is in the Rabbitohs vs Raiders game, 1u on -3.5 Rabbitohs @1.90
2nd play in the Knights vs Roosters game, 3u on Roosters to win @1.48
Parlay is 1u on Rabbitohs -3.5, Storm, Panthers, Eels, Roosters and Dragons @6.00
Breakdowns to follow
bet each leg of the parlay @0.5u for insurance.
Good luck all!
So just to explain the insurance bets,
I usually go half the unit size I bet on the parlay. So if the parlay is 1u I will bet 0.5u on each leg for insurance. I just wanted to make it clear, so there is transparency in how i am calculating things for the results.
@soppie did a post about why this is important to play each leg earlier in the forum on page 1 and this formula has been helping a lot.
I am still going over some results and I will let you know what things changing up i the next day or so.