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JB826
(@jb826)
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OK boys, NFL is here and those of us in the VIP chat have had some luck.  Thought I would share my pregame pick for Week 5.  Usually, I have 3-4 pregame picks.  I always go light as I have an idea of the strengths and weaknesses of each team, but like in the UFC, sometimes a team just doesn't show up, so I bet heavier on live bets.  A lot of us share our thoughts there on VIP chats.   Have some extra time this week so thought I would share my pregame pick this week.

This week I am using a Teaser bet.  For those of you unfamiliar, a teaser is where you can gain an additional 6 points to the point spread, but you have to pick two teams to win the bet.  There are key numbers to bet if you use a teaser and not just bet any team where you think 6 points would help.  

This week I think there is a very high likelihood that the Dallas Cowboys beat the NY Giants at home and that the Baltimore Ravens will beat the Indianapolis Colts at home.  However, I am not very confident in many games where the favorite is favored by more than a TD.  This is bc in the NFL teams don't care about margin of victory, they just want the win.  Much different than in CFB.  As such, I wouldn't bet the Cowboys to beat the Giants by -7, as they are currently favored.  Nor would I bet the Raves to beat the Colts by -7 as they are favored.  But with the teaser, I get the Cowboys -1, and the Ravens -1, which basically means both teams simply need to win the game.  If you were to simply parlay the two teams together, your payout would be -141.  But with a teaser, you should only have to pay -120.

This weeks bet is a Teaser, Cowboys -1 and Ravens -1.

 

This topic was modified 2 weeks ago by JB826

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JB826
(@jb826)
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Topic starter  

Soppie, if you have get a chance I would love to read your thoughts on props on any week where you feel comfortable sharing.  Same goes with anybody else that has picks.  Love seeing everyone else's opinions!!  Good luck this week!!!!


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JB826
(@jb826)
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Topic starter  

****Note I can't seem to edit the text above, but accidentally made a reference to the Baltimore Colts...that should have read Baltimore Ravens.  The pick is teaser using Baltimore Ravens -1 and Dallas Cowboys -1.


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HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
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Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 65
 

nice work JB...will be tailing.

 

I edited your Baltimore Colts 😉

 


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Moons85
(@moons85)
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Posts: 217
 

Cheers JB.

LFG!


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JB826
(@jb826)
Flyweight Champion Member
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Topic starter  

Hiltz to the rescue.


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
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Posts: 158
 

@jb826 Cheers JB 

LFGOOOO


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Soppie
(@soppie)
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Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 16
 

Rams Pros
---------
Rams have a way better chance at winning if they use their running backs, Hawks currently having trouble stopping the run game.
Rams have 2x 99 Rating defensive players with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but they lost a lot during off-season including their old DC
taking them from #2 to #23 in overall defense.
McVay doesn't lose games twice in a row, currently 13-6-1 after a loss.
McVay's pre-snap motions are known to confuse Pete Carroll, he was basically hired because of this. (Fuck Pete)

Seahawks Pros
-------------
Russell Wilson is 9-1 in TNF Games beating Carindals twice, Rams twice, Green Bay.
Seahawks in 8-2-1 ATS (Against the spread) in their last 11.
Seahawks as dogs in their last 16 games are 12-4 ATS.
Russell Wilson in Primetime games 29-8-1.
Currently best 1H team in league but Defense fucks this up for us and allows opposite team to score in 2H.
Seahawks are currently 4-0 when wearing our Green uniforms.
Seahawks play their best when dogs and hard to beat when we play at home.

Both QB's are gunslingers with powerful arms.

Rams are the better bet atm imho 

LAR -2.5
1H O26.5
RAMS TT O27.5

LAR -5.5
OVER 53.5
1Q OVER 10

These are all good bets - I would recommend .5u or passing if you can't handle using money.

 


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Soppie
(@soppie)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 16
 
Posted by: @soppie

Rams Pros
---------
Rams have a way better chance at winning if they use their running backs, Hawks currently having trouble stopping the run game.
Rams have 2x 99 Rating defensive players with Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but they lost a lot during off-season including their old DC
taking them from #2 to #23 in overall defense.
McVay doesn't lose games twice in a row, currently 13-6-1 after a loss.
McVay's pre-snap motions are known to confuse Pete Carroll, he was basically hired because of this. (Fuck Pete)

Seahawks Pros
-------------
Russell Wilson is 9-1 in TNF Games beating Carindals twice, Rams twice, Green Bay.
Seahawks in 8-2-1 ATS (Against the spread) in their last 11.
Seahawks as dogs in their last 16 games are 12-4 ATS.
Russell Wilson in Primetime games 29-8-1.
Currently best 1H team in league but Defense fucks this up for us and allows opposite team to score in 2H.
Seahawks are currently 4-0 when wearing our Green uniforms.
Seahawks play their best when dogs and hard to beat when we play at home.

Both QB's are gunslingers with powerful arms.

Rams are the better bet atm imho 

LAR -2.5
1H O26.5
RAMS TT O27.5

LAR -5.5
OVER 53.5
1Q OVER 10

These are all good bets - I would recommend .5u or passing if you can't handle using money.

 

Rams -5.5 is a very high risk bet so don't bet if you're a sissy.


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Moons85
(@moons85)
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Thanks Soppie tailing

GL all!


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JB826
(@jb826)
Flyweight Champion Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 297
Topic starter  

LFG Sops!


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Soppie
(@soppie)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 16
 

Rough game due to flags and points being missed.

LAR -2.5 - W
LAR -5.5 - W
RAMS TT O27.5 - L
- Rams end with 23 points in total due to kicker missing Field goal and extra point killing 4 points
OVER 53.5 - L
- Game ended with 43 points on the board. 2 missed Field Goals and TD that was flagged took 13 points off the board.

1Q OVER 10 - L
1H O26.5 -L

I will put unit size in future bets, but usually if I take a spread I go 1U and props I will go from .25u to .5u most of the time. Confident props I have no issue going 1u due to risk to reward ratio.

 


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JB826
(@jb826)
Flyweight Champion Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 297
Topic starter  

Great analysis and solid positions as usual Soppie!  Bad luck on some of the routine plays that should have been made.


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EvilScotsman47
(@evilscotsman47)
White Belt Member
Joined: 2 weeks ago
Posts: 2
 

Thank you for the update Soppie, I know little about the nfl but with your guys observations throughout the game i took the money line on rams for 2.55.

Thanks again guys


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Soppie
(@soppie)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 7 years ago
Posts: 16
 

I just took Cardinals -4.5 @ 1.94 for 1U 

Jimmy G hasn't practiced all week so his not likely to play (His Quarterback 1) and Trey Lance is a fresh draft pick and isn't ready to take over. Cardinals have been firing on all cylinders, they score at will and their defense will apply pressure to Trey Lance and he won't ever get settled. 


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