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ONE on TNT 1


HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
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Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 51
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Hey All. 

I am researching the main card of ONE on TNT 1 and I have found what I think is a very good bet.

Alvarez vs Lapicus...I am going to be betting 1 Unit on Lapicus.

Lapicus did lose his last fight, but it is his only pro loss and it was in a championship fight against an absolute killer in Christian Lee.  Lapicus was actually doing ok in the fight until he got pounded out going for a leg submission in a transition.  Lapicus is a very well rounded fighter who is a very good grappler and striker, he has 14 finishes in 15 fights...has never gone to a decision.  In the Grigorian fight (17-2 with 12 subs) he submitted a BJJ black belt in the first round.  I did have some reservations about Lapicus gas tank if he did not finish Alvarez quickly as all of his fights but 1 have finished in the first round.  Watching the Wiratchai fight though, It is evident that Lapicus has a very good gas tank.  when he realized he wasn't gonna zip through him he settled in, used his grappling effectively and found a finish in the 3rd round.  It showed me he has the grit to fight through being tired and keep grinding

Alvarez has not really had a very good time of it in ONE.  He has been matched up against very good strikers who are not grapplers at all.  In the fight with Nastyukhin, the grappling didn't work...and he was out matched in the striking...getting knocked out in the first round.  In the Folayang fight, Eddie was on his way to getting KOed again...he was in a bad situation.  Folayang got over aggressive and followed Eddie to the ground going for a finish.  He ended up getting reversed and Alvarez immediately submitted him.  Folayang is a pure striker...so its no surprise he was a fish out of water on the ground.  What I took from those two fights is that Eddie is still tough, but he doesn't have the striking to match the fighters in ONE.  When he gets them on the ground he i is likely to find success, but has hasn't shown an ability to use offensive grappling.

There are some intangibles to think about. Alvarez is coming up to 170 for this fight.  That tells me he either settled for the fight he could get, or he doesn't want to make 155 any more.  In either case, he is coming up a weight class and Lapicus has been fighting at 170 for a long time and is likely the second best or at worst a top 3 170lber in ONE.  Eddie is 37 years old and not faring well against the middle of the pack in ONE at 155, and Yuri is 25 and fighting and beating everybody quickly...except for the very best 170lber in ONE.  Alvarez has not fought in almost two years and Lapicus fought twice in 2020.

I do see risks which is why I am keeping it to 1 unit.  Eddie does hit hard and always has that ability to end your night.  Lapicus chin is an unknown.  He always blows through people, so we don't know really know what will happen if Alvarez lands a big shot, but the 3rd round of the Wiratchai fight shows me he will likely try and fight through it by looking for a TD. Lapicus off his back is an unknown for the most part, though he did work to scramble against against lee and again...Alvarez hasn't shown an ability to offensively grapple.

I think Lapicus is the better striker and while not likely the better grappler, his grappling is sufficient to reverse or get back up if Eddie gets on top if him.  I expect Lapicus to come at Eddie hard with alot of pressure and I think Eddie is going to have a hard time surviving the first round. If he does survive, he is likely in for being grappled and I think Lapicus is good enough to out grapple Eddie

Tail at your own risk, but the odds are wayyyyyyyyyyy off here.  I see this as 60/40 Lapicus and the odds have it at 65/35 Alvarez.

Lapicus vs Lee:

Lapicus vs Grigorian:

Lapicus vs Wiratchai:

Alvarez vs Natyukhin:

Alvarez vs Folayang:

This topic was modified 1 month ago by HiltzyNS

kirby, frozenthrone, Guccisniper72 and 1 people liked
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Moons85
(@benmooney85)
Black Belt
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 141
 

Great breakdown Hiltzy, Hopefully I get some odds. 


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Paul
 Paul
(@paulhardy2199)
Member Moderator
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 17
 

Tailing 


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JB826
(@jb826)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 1 year ago
Posts: 215
 

Cheers Hiltzy!  1 unit in. Great breakdown. LFG!!!


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 119
 

Nice one Hiltz, great breakdown and i'm chucking 1U on it and tailing 

LFGOOOOO

 


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Guccisniper72
(@guccisniper72)
Black Belt Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 119
 

@benmooney85 Moons Sportsbet has odds at 2.90 right now.... Get on it and LFGOOOOOOOOO

 


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frozenthrone
(@frozenthrone)
Purple Belt Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 21
 

nice breakdown, let's get it


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Taz
 Taz
(@tazmanian)
Purple Belt Member
Joined: 2 years ago
Posts: 21
 

Tailing 👊


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kirby
(@insanekirby)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 3 months ago
Posts: 19
 

Wowow bs DQ but a W is a W! Yeee


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