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Political Betting - other bettors are easier then the house


McWaffle
(@mcwaffle)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 11
Topic starter  

Hello, I couldn't find anything about the various political betting sites on here.  It is actually my primary "advantage" gambling hobby.  The most interesting part about the ones I am suggesting is that you are not playing against the house but rather other bettors.

My Primary Site: www.predictit.org

Another site crypto-based and non-political markets: Polymarket.com

Anyways these operate almost more like a stock market.  I am not gonna type it all out here I am including a video on how they work and another on a "guarantee" method where you use negative risk.  Anyways the big thing is you are playing against another bettor it's akin to blackjack and poker at a casino.  Also unlike sports bets you bet is actually a share that can gain or lose value and you can sell anytime you want assuming there is a buyer at your desired price. 

can try and answer questions but if you are a political/news junkie or just able to see all the times markets aren't priced accurately you can make some money. 

Cheers

This topic was modified 2 months ago by McWaffle
This topic was modified 2 months ago by Allsopp

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McWaffle
(@mcwaffle)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 11
Topic starter  

These bets can be pretty boring but profitable ill give you an example.

 

In this market, I am betting on the next OMB Director.  I can almost guarantee you it isn't Shalanda Young.  She was confirmed as Deputy Director and is the acting director.   If someone is curious about my logic I can explain but I can't recommend taking tips, even from me, without being informed on the topic yourself as that is never smart.  So I dont wanna promote giving advice on this site as the way you win is by being informed.

 

Anyways as I said I am very certain its not Shalanda. You see my shares in red, which means I have "NO" shares on Shalanda if anyone else is selected and confirmed those 883 shares close out at $1 so I get about $883 in that case.  You can see my average price is $0.50 so I have about $440 riding on that.  Since I am basically playing the field against her I can use it as a hedge of sorts and put about $118  on Gene Sperling. I am realistically put Shalnada's chances sub  10% so with this bet if it is Gene my $118 on him becomes $1475.  He is not a sure thing by any means but his post as covid relief czar, being a clinton/Obama economic advisory lead me to believe the delay could be waiting on him to finish his current job.  I am more than likely wrong but I will am ok because if it is not Shalanda I am still ok.  Also if there is a rumor or anything news about it being Gene or Not Shalanda I can sell these shares at any time.   

I can not stress enough the importance of not just taking random advice on these markets including me.  These markets can be small and one person with a big purchase can change the price.  As a result, "pumping" is a real thing, just like a stock market pump and dump.  People will hype some selection to drive up the price and sell shares.  I am not doing this but you win on this site by being informed.  

Let me end with an example of how people's political bias can make you rich.  Here is the 2020 Presidential Market.  Look at Donald Trump's price even after Election day.  That was free money up for grabs. 


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McWaffle
(@mcwaffle)
Blue Belt Member
Joined: 2 months ago
Posts: 11
Topic starter  

Sorry for the chain posting the edit time is short.

I am not sure about the distribution of people in terms of nationality and country.  There are limited non-American markets usually exclusively PM/Presidents.  So it's not that you can't be profitable as a non-American but as mentioned this is a site where you are putting your knowledge directly against a field of other people.  I liken it to poker in that sense.  I also didn't mention fees.  The site takes 10% when you profit.  That is selling shares at a profit or have them mature to $1.  So my Shalanda $0.50 shares would have $0.50 in profit each and I would be paying $0.05 per share.   If I lose I have paid no fees.  I have never been at a point that the 10% meant I was winning but losing money.  Where it can really come into play is when you aiming for arbitrage but that is a whole separate beast and one that if you get good at is guaranteed profit,  its arbitrage.


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HiltzyNS
(@hiltzyns)
Member Moderator
Joined: 3 years ago
Posts: 63
 

definitely an interesting topic.  I am not a guy who follows politics myself....but I think others around here


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