Last week, I recommended a 1-unit bet on Vinicius Oliveira at odds of 2.40 (+140).

However, over the past 12 hours, a video has surfaced of Oliveira speaking openly about just how brutally difficult his weight cut was.

The video is in Portuguese and can be viewed here:

I’ve used a translation tool on the captions, and the message roughly translates to the following:

 

Hope you guys can hear me, my voice is still a bit rough. We made the weight — it was a hard night. I think this was one of the hardest cuts of my entire career. I’ve kind of made up my mind… I think I can do this cut two more times. I can’t stay in this weight class if I keep walking around at 84 kilos (184 lbs) outside of camp, which is hard for me to do. I’ll go back home and try to be lighter to stay in the division. But I’m fine. The weight cut is done. It was a hard night. I never doubted I’d hit the weight, but man… I saw dea— haha. I saw God calling me this night.

This is a major red flag.

Given the severity of that weight cut and the very real risk that Oliveira may not be able to perform anywhere near his full potential, I’m no longer comfortable holding this position.

The good news is that we bet Oliveira early, before the market moved against him. As a result, we can now hedge out of this position for extremely close to break-even, significantly reducing our risk.

 

You can use the hedging calculator on the website to work out the exact stakes required, based on the odds you originally took on Oliveira, to neutralise this bet.