Free Betting Tips, Picks & Predictions For UFC 183

We’ve made a profit on 6 out of the last 7 UFC events, which has helped us to bank 10 units of profit in the month of January. UFC 183 is a great event for betting and I feel extremely confident that we’re going to make even more money on Saturday night.

I have a total of 7 betting tips for this event, which includes underdogs, parlay accumulators, prop bets and solid favourites. 2 of these betting tips can be viewed in this article and the other 5 are only available to my Premium Members.

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Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC 183 – Silva vs Diaz.

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I only ever recommend betting parlay accumulators when I believe that fighters have almost no chance of losing. It may surprise you, but that’s how I feel about Anderson Silva and Derek Brunson in their fights at UFC 183. Pairing these two fighters together will give us a 49% return on our money and I believe that this is a pretty good return when you take into consideration the limited paths to victory that both Nick Diaz and Ed Herman have.


A lot of people are calling the fight between Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz a dog or pass situation, but I don’t see it like that. I believe that the UFC have done a very good job of making people believe that Nick Diaz has a legitimate chance of winning this fight when he doesn’t…

Nick Diaz has shown us nothing throughout his career that suggests he’s capable of beating a guy like Anderson Silva and even if Silva shows up and looks half as good as he did before his leg injury, he should still destroy Diaz.

I’ll start off by giving you my opinion on the leg injury that has led many people to doubt Silva’s ability to win this fight. Most doctors and physicians will tell you that it’s much more difficult to recover from a serious knee injury than a leg break. That’s the reason why Anderson Silva was back in full training after just 7 months, whilst Carlos Condit has only just been able to resume full training after an ACL tear. Anderson’s injury looked gruesome, but it really wasn’t that bad compared to many other serious leg injuries such as ligament tears and ankle fractures. His age will certainly make it more difficult for him to recover and get back to full strength, but you have to take into account the skill gap between Anderson Silva and Nick Diaz. Could Silva have declined enough to the point where he would struggle against a one dimensional striker like Diaz? I doubt it…

Nick Diaz is the perfect opponent for Anderson Silva, because he poses no threat of the takedown and no threat of kicks. This will be a straight up striking match and that’s the type of fight in which Anderson thrives.

You have to remember that Diaz is a natural Welterweight and Anderson is used to fighting against guys who are much bigger. Diaz has also held a reach advantage over almost all of his past opponents which is a luxury that he won’t have against Anderson Silva. Nick is also used to having the advantage of being a Southpaw, but Anderson is a natural Southpaw and he’ll be more than comfortable fighting Nick in his lefty stance.

I have heard some people say that Nick Diaz can knock Anderson Silva out, but I feel that this is very unlikely. Nick has only won 1 fight by knockout or TKO in the last 4 years and that was against Paul Daley, who was willing to stand in the pocket and trade punches.

If you go back through Diaz’s fight record, you’ll see that he’s not the type of guy who finishes opponents with 1 punch. His finishes are more a product of his aggressive fighting style and his high work rate. Anderson’s striking defence and footwork are about as good as it gets and I don’t see how Diaz will be able to land the significant strikes which could put Anderson away. It’s possible that at 40 years old Silva could have lost his speed, reflexes and chin, but I just can’t see him declining enough to the point where he can’t deal with someone as one dimensional as Diaz.

I really like Nick Diaz, but I do find his MMA record very underwhelming. He hasn’t come close to beating anyone close to Anderson’s level and he’s also competed against much smaller opponents throughout his career. I have a very hard time buying into the idea that Nick can win this fight when I look back at his fight record…

Nick Diaz MMA Record

You also have to question the motives of both fighters…

Anderson Silva sustained a brutal leg injury just 12 months ago, that was seen by millions of people around the world. His family begged him to retire and yet the first question he asked the doctors after his surgery was “How soon will I be able to fight?”. When most people would be concerned about how soon they would be able to walk, Anderson could only think about how soon he would be able to fight. Against the best wishes of his family, he was throwing kicks with his injured leg within a few months and back in full training within just 7 months. Anderson Silva is fighting because he loves to fight. He has all the money in the world, a beautiful family, movie deals, sponsorship deals and a legacy that will live on forever and yet he chose to go through brutal rehabilitation, just so that he could step into the Octagon and fight again.

Nick Diaz hasn’t fought in 2 years, because he couldn’t be bothered to climb the ladder back to a big fight after losing to George St Pierre. He often talks about money being his key motivator and how he needs to fight because he needs money for some big things coming up in his life. I know Nick is crazy, but when fighters start talking about a lack of motivation and being driven by money, it’s a sign that their heart’s not in it.

If Nick had put a run of wins together and he was coming into this fight motivated and without ring rust, I could see the logic in betting on him, but 2 years of ring rust will have an adverse effect on his performance and skill for skill, he has never been in the same league as Anderson Silva.

I believe that Anderson Silva will destroy Nick Diaz within the first couple of rounds and everyone will be left wondering why they ever thought Diaz had a chance.


There’s a lot of hype behind Derek Brunson right now and whilst I’m not completely on board his hype train, I do recognise that his strong wrestling base is kryptonite for Ed Herman’s fighting style.

Herman’s biggest problem is that he lacks takedown defence. Rafael Natal was able to take him down pretty easily in his last fight and Natal’s takedowns aren’t that great. If Natal can get Herman to the ground, Brunson will have no problem and he’ll be able to do it repeatedly and easily, no matter how many times they get stood up.

Herman’s poor take down defence has been the main factor in each of his losses and yet he has failed to do anything about it since he first fought in the UFC back in 2006. Herman hasn’t addressed this massive hole in his game in the last 8 years and I doubt it’s got much better since he last fought back in May. I predict that Herman will be spending a significantly large period of this fight on his back and there’s not a lot he can do about it…

Neither of these guys are very good strikers, but I don’t think it will matter, because most of this fight will take place on the ground. Herman is probably the better striker, but he’s really slow and Brunson won’t hang around in his range long enough for him to land anything significant. Brunson also has a 4 inch reach advantage over Herman and he fights out of the Southpaw stance.

Derek Brunson has fought at Greg Jackson’s gym for most of his career, but he switched his camp to North Carolina for his last fight against Lorenz Larkin. His performance in that fight was one of his worst in recent years, so he decided to switch back to Greg Jackson’s in his preparation for Ed Herman. This shows good maturity and intelligence and I’m hoping we see an improved version of Derek Brunson in this fight…

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MY BETTING TIP: 5 Units [5% of your bankroll] on Anderson Silva and Derek Brunson to win at odds of 1.49 | -204 | 49/100

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I strongly believe that Anderson Silva will win inside the distance, but this bet offers us a little bit of insurance on our 2 fight parlay accumulator where we need Anderson Silva and Derek Brunson to win.

I don’t see any scenario in which Nick Diaz could outpoint Anderson Silva and win a decision in a 5 round fight. He’s simply too easy to hit and Anderson is too elusive and too accurate to get outpointed by Diaz.

In the unlikely event that Silva does get cocky or he shows up looking like a 40 year old who has lost his ability to absorb damage, then Nick winning this fight in under 3.5 rounds will reduce our potential loss of 5 units on our parlay accumulator down to 3 units.

I believe that Anderson Silva will come into this fight extremely motivated and keen to make a strong impression after his back to back losses to Chris Weidman. I’ve noticed a change in his character that we haven’t seen since he came back from heavy criticism to fight Forrest Griffin. In his past few fights he looked disinterested during his media commitments, but he has looked extremely motivated ever since this fight was announced. We’re seeing a very different Anderson Silva this week and I believe his losses against Weidman have given him a fresh sense of purpose. I believe he will finish Nick Diaz within the 1st couple of rounds, which means that both our bets involving Anderson Silva should win.

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Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC 183 – Silva vs Diaz

MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on this fight to last less than 3.5 rounds at odds of 1.70 | -142 | 7/10

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I'm a Professional Gambler from the UK. I specialize in betting on MMA. I've got 1 kid, a Shih Tzu and I've been making money from gambling for around 8 years now.

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