I’ve got 5 betting tips for UFC 185. My tip for the fight between Alistair Overeem and Roy Nelson can be viewed in this article for free and the rest of my picks can be viewed by becoming a Premium Member. My Premium Betting Tips for UFC 185 feature a range of bets including underdogs, prop bets and good value favourites.
Betting just $10 a unit on each of my betting tips in January and February would have earned you a profit of $123.90. Betting $100 a unit would have earned you a profit of $1239 and betting $1000 a unit would have returned you a profit of $12,390. Those aren’t bad returns for a Premium Membership that costs just $9.99 a month. Click here to become a Premium Member and start winning money today.
Don’t forget to checkout my Premium Betting Tips for UFC 185 – Anthony Pettis vs Rafael Dos Anjos.
ALISTAIR OVEREEM vs ROY NELSON
I decided to make this my free betting tip for UFC 185 because it appears to be one of the most divisive fights on the card. I’ve seen a good number of people already place bets on Overeem to win and it seems that an equal number of people are placing bets on Roy Nelson.
In fights like this where both fighters have a clear path to victory, I always try to weigh up the ways in which both fighters could win and then I consider the probabilities of every outcome. Most people would agree that Roy Nelson’s path to victory is by landing his Nuclear powered overhand right onto the head of Alistair Overeem, whilst it’s fair to say that Overeem wins if he can just avoid getting hit clean by one of Nelson’s Nuclear Bombs.
I believe that Roy Nelson only has a punchers chance of winning this fight and whilst his punchers chance is considerable, it shouldn’t be enough to stop you betting on Alistair Overeem at 1.50 | -200 | 1/2, because a 50% return on our money is a decent return when you take into consideration the huge advantages that Overeem has in this fight.
Roy Nelson has devastating knockout power, but he isn’t very good at closing the distance and he doesn’t do a very good job of setting up his strikes. Alistair Overeem is a much higher level striker and he also has an 8 inch reach advantage over Nelson. Overeem should easily be able to chip away at Nelson’s lead leg with his powerful kicks and blast Nelson from the outside. All Overeem has to do is avoid Nelson’s overhand right and he will win this fight. This should be relatively easy for Overeem to do, since Nelson telegraphs his power punches and Overeem has the luxury of an 8 inch reach advantage.
Overeem has suffered 3 knockout losses since he signed for the UFC, with each of those knockouts coming at the hands of Ben Rothwell, Travis Browne and Antonio Silva. This is significant because each of those fighters were a lot larger than Overeem and they each had a reach advantage when they fought him. This means that they will have been able to land on Overeem a lot easier than Nelson will be able to. Nelson is very undersized for a Heavyweight and Overeem should easily be able to keep Nelson on the end of his punches and circle away when Nelson telegraphs that he’s going to try and close the distance.
Alistair Overeem has superb fight IQ and there’s no way he’s going to hang around in Nelson’s range. If Nelson had good foot work and feints, I’d feel a little nervous about this bet, but Nelson doesn’t set anything up, he just throws his huge overhand right in the hope that it connects.
People have been quick to condemn Alistair Overeem as a fighter on the decline, but Overeem is still fast, powerful, well rounded and he’s still only 34, which isn’t that old for a Heavyweight. Roy Nelson is now 38 years old and he hasn’t looked good for a very long time. He’s got several impressive highlight reel knockouts on his record, but each of those knockouts were against guys like Big Nog, Cheick Kongo, Dave Herman, Matt Mitrione and Mirko Cro Cop. Each of those fighters were either way past their prime or complete rookies when Nelson fought them. Nelson has never knocked out a fighter as well rounded or as dangerous as Overeem and at 38 years old I don’t think he’s going to start now.
Alistair Overeem is simply better than Roy Nelson in any area that this fight could take place and at 1.50 | -200 | 1/2, I believe that Overeem is a great bet.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Alistair Overeem to win at odds of 1.50 | -200 | 1/2