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My free betting tip for UFC 194 is for the fight between Conor McGregor and Jose Aldo. The rest of my betting tips for this event can be viewed by my VIP Members. Click here to check them out.
Don’t forget to stop by our MMA Betting Forum and join in the discussion on UFC 194. I will also be in the Chat Room during the event to talk about the fights live. I look forward to seeing you there!
Conor McGregor vs Jose Aldo Betting Tip Prediction for UFC 194
Most people have no problem predicting the outcome of the fight between Conor McGregor and Jose Aldo. This is definitely one of those fights where everyone seems to have a strong opinion on how it will play out. Some people think that Aldo will run through McGregor and prove to everyone that he is the number 1 pound for pound fighter in the world, whilst other people think that the Irishman will KO Aldo stiff within the first couple of rounds. Before researching this fight, I was very much split on how I felt it would play out, but as I started to look deeper into how both guys matched up, I started to see that Conor McGregor holds significant advantages over Jose Aldo that give him a clear path to victory.
Jose Aldo has some of the best takedown defence in MMA history and his unique ability to keep a fight standing has meant that he has been able to use his high level Muay Thai to crush less skilled strikers who fight with a grappling base. Aldo has now competed under the Zuffa brand in the WEC and UFC a total of 14 times and it’s quite staggering how many Wrestle Boxers Aldo has fought within that time. Out of the 14 fighters he has faced, very few of them have possessed the standup skills to compete with Aldo and only a small number have possessed the power to hurt him. Take a look at his MMA record and see for yourself…
If we are being truly honest with ourselves, there is no one on that list who we could call an elite striker. Yes, Frankie Edgar has good Boxing, but he doesn’t have the power to hurt you and his overall striking skillset is very basic. You will very rarely see Frankie throw kicks or elbows and he possesses absolutely no threat in the clinch. Chad Mendes has the power, but he doesn’t really have the technique, speed or reach to compete with a guy like Jose Aldo. Fighters like Cub Swanson, Alexandre Nogueira and Mark Hominick are all decent strikers, but they’re not in the same league as Conor McGregor.
If you remove yourself from all the hype, all the highlight reels and all the promotional videos and evaluate Jose Aldo purely on his skills in the Octagon, it’s clear that he’s never fought a striker anywhere near the level of Conor McGregor. It’s also clear that most of his highlight reel wins have come against grapplers who have become desperate and got caught when they overcommited to something.
Jose Aldo is one of the greatest fighters of all time and I don’t want to take anything away from him, but if you spend time studying his fights you will notice quite quickly that he is very easy to hit. You will also notice that he lacks movement and is essentially a stationary target. There’s an old saying in sports that “Offense in the best form of Defense” and Aldo’s entire skillset can be summed up with that quote. Aldo likes to plant his feet and control the striking exchanges and range by using his devastating kicks and fast counters to back his opponent’s up. Aldo doesn’t use that much footwork or head movement to evade his opponent’s strikes, instead he prefers to fire back with brutal counters whenever he gets hurt by his opponents. These tactics have worked tremendously well for him against Wrestle Boxers who don’t possess the striking skills to compete with him on a technical level, but it won’t be as effective against a rangey Southpaw like McGregor who hits very hard with pinpoint accuracy and speed.
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Aldo also has a wreckless weakness in his game where he is more than happy to put his chin to the test and fight fire with fire when he gets hurt. If you go back and watch some of his previous fights you’ll notice that when Aldo gets hurt, he doesn’t try to cover up, he doesn’t look to use footwork to circle out of danger and he doesn’t look to change levels and go for the clinch or the takedown. Instead, he bites down on his mouth piece and swings for the fences in a desperate attempt to back his opponent’s up. Up until now that strategy has been very effective, but Aldo has never fought a guy like McGregor who can maintain range and land devastating combos whilst remaining calm and composed in the pocket.
Conor McGregor’s biggest strength is his ability to perform to his full potential in high pressure situations. Almost everyone that has fought him in the UFC has looked like a scared Rabbit and that’s largely down to the fact that people struggle to perform to their full potential under the pressure that Conor generates for his fights. When Conor fought Chad Mendes at UFC 189 he had the weight of the world on his shoulders and yet he walked to the Octagon calm and unphased. Then, after spending most of the fight on his back, he was still able to remain calm and composed even when it was clear that Chad Mendes was winning the fight. Staying calm and composed in such an extreme situation is an invaluable skill that cannot be taught and it gives Conor McGregor a huge advantage over everyone that he faces inside the Octagon.
Jose Aldo has been in a lot of big fights, but nothing compares to a Conor McGregor fight and the only way you can become comfortable in that environment is to spend time fighting under those conditions and the conditions of a Conor McGregor fight are impossible to train for. One way in which you could become comfortable in this environment would be to start slow and spend time growing your comfort zone and settling into the fight. Conor is very smart and he recognises this and he does everything he can to prevent his opponent’s from becoming comfortable under the pressure of fighting him. This is why he doesn’t give his opponent’s a single second to settle and become comfortable. As soon as the fight starts, he rushes across the Octagon and swarms his opponent, never giving them room to breathe. If Conor gets tagged, he doesn’t back up an inch and he keeps coming forward, if Conor gets taken down, he doesn’t fight more tentatively, he tries to get back to his feet and still keeps coming forward. This chaotic approach to an already stressful situation causes people to panic and it causes them to make mistakes and ultimately they wilt under the pressure.
You also have to take into consideration the fact that Jose Aldo will be suffering from a good amount of ring rust, having not competed in around 14 months. It always takes guys a bit of time to shake off the ring rust and settle back into fighting and Aldo won’t get th
I have several red flags that drive me to look for opportunities to bet against a fighter and one of the biggest red flags is when a fighter talks about retirement. Jose Aldo has hinted at retirement many times and he also said he’d make an announcement about his future as a fighter after he fought Conor McGregor. MMA is not a sport where you can be thinking about retirement, you need to be totally committed. Guys that talk about retirement almost always go on to lose their next fight or experience a rapid decline. Conor McGregor is young, hungry and dedicated to this sport and I’m not sure if Jose Aldo’s heart is still in the game. When fighters start to talk about retirement it’s a big warning sign…
The big elephant in the room with any Conor McGregor fight is his lack of takedown defence and low level ground game. Chad Mendes took him down at will with a fractured foot and passed his guard like it was nothing on the ground. Jose Aldo has high level Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and strong MMA wrestling and he will destroy Conor McGregor on the ground if he chooses to take him down. Problem is… Aldo never takes people down. He never really has and even if he does it won’t be easy to keep a big, strong guy like McGregor on the ground, who does admittedly lack takedown defence, but who does seemingly have good scrambles. The only thing stopping me from betting bigger on Conor McGregor is the possibility that Aldo could come out and turn this fight into a grappling match and if that happens Conor is in big trouble. Personally, based on historical performances, I believe it’s very unlikely, but it is always a possibility and Conor’s ground game will leave him vulnerable until he tightens up.
This fight is very easy for me to breakdown. If it stays standing, I believe Conor McGregor will destroy Jose Aldo and if it goes to the ground, I believe that Jose Aldo will dominate Conor McGregor. I don’t believe that Aldo will look to take this fight to the ground, because he never has in the past, even when he has held a huge grappling advantage over his opponent’s or has been badly hurt. I also do not believe that Aldo will find it easy to stop a big, strong guy like Conor McGregor from scrambling back to his feet in the chaotic atmosphere of the fight.
Jose Aldo likes to conserve energy in fights by just doing enough to outpoint his opponent’s. I don’t believe he has the cardio to keep up with the pace that Conor will set and I also don’t believe he has the striking defence to stop Conor from landing big shots on him. Conor likes to work the body with big kicks and this will cause Jose Aldo to slow down more and more as the fight goes on. Jose is normally very tired by the end of the 3rd round and Conor’s body kicks will cause him to gas out a lot faster. Conor managed to knock the wind out of Chad Mendes after just 1 minute and 4 seconds and I don’t see what Jose Aldo can do to stop Conor from landing the same energy sucking body kicks.
Aldo is an incredible technical striker, but he is also very reactive and he relies on his opponent’s fighting in a traditional striking stance to be able to land his most powerful weapons. Conor can land on Aldo from positions of relative safety and his length and Southpaw stance will cause Aldo significant problems.
I expect Conor McGregor to come out strong and aggressive and apply a lot of pressure from the very first second of this fight. Conor does a great job of staying out of his opponent’s striking range, which will make it very hard for Aldo to land his powerful hook counters and devastating leg kicks. Aldo doesn’t possess the head movement or footwork to avoid Conor from lighting him up with his powerful combos and I expect Conor to win this fight by knockout within the first couple of rounds.
Click here to read more of my betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC 194 – Conor McGregor vs Jose Aldo.
MY BETTING TIP: 3 Units [3% of your bankroll] on Conor McGregor to win at odds of 1.70 | -142 | 7/10
Awesome write up Allsop, I agree wholeheartedly.