UFC 195 is the first major MMA event of 2016 and I expect to start the year by making a big profit. The oddsmakers must be suffering from a Christmas hangover because some of the odds on this event are totally crazy. I have identified 3 underdogs at UFC 195 who should clearly be the favourites, which gives us the perfect platform to make a lot of money on this event…
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My free betting tip for UFC 195 is for the fight between Carlos Condit and Robbie Lawler. I have an additional 5 bets for this event that can only be viewed by my VIP Members. Click here to check them out.
Don’t forget to stop by our MMA Betting Forum and join in the discussion on UFC 195. I will also be in the Chat Room during the event to talk about the fights live. I look forward to seeing you there!
Carlos Condit vs Robbie Lawler Betting Tip Prediction for UFC 195
Robbie Lawler hasn’t looked good in his last few fights and you have to wonder when his luck is going to run out. I personally feel like his most recent “win” against Johny Hendricks was one of the biggest under the radar robberies in the history of the UFC. Many people seem to have brushed the bad decision under the carpet because Lawler is a popular and exciting fighter, but the fact remains that Johny Hendricks destroyed Robbie Lawler in every single aspect of MMA. If you go back and watch the fight you will see that Hendricks clearly won 4 out of the 5 rounds and you could even make a case for Johny winning all 5 rounds because Lawler only won the last 2 minutes of the fight.
Lawler’s most recent win came against Rory MacDonald in a fight that he almost lost in a variety of different ways. The fight will go down as one of the greatest of all time, but we can’t ignore the fact that Lawler almost got knocked out twice in the 3rd and 4th rounds and was just minutes away from losing a decision because the judges had MacDonald winning 3 out of the 5 rounds.
Robbie Lawler’s biggest weakness is that he’s very predictable and singular in his approach to MMA. In every fight you know that he’s going to come out in the Southpaw stance, stand right in front of his opponent and look to use his high level boxing to outstrike them.
Carlos Condit is the opposite of predictable, because he uses a lot of footwork and movement to setup his wide range of attacks. Condit looks to hurt his opponent with every limb on his body and this makes him very unpredictable. Condit throws nasty punches, knees, kicks and elbows from every position and Lawler has struggled in the past against fighters who throw a diverse range of strikes.
Robbie Lawler’s singular approach to MMA also makes it difficult for him to make adjustments, even when it is clear that he is losing a fight. When Johny Hendricks was outboxing him, taking him down and working him against the cage, he had no answers and even though the judges awarded him the win, he got very lucky in that fight. Lawler failed to make adjustments against Hendricks in a fight that lasted for 25 minutes and he spent most of the match up looking confused and frustrated.
Against Rory MacDonald we saw Lawler continue to stand and trade, even after he got rocked twice… Even when it was clear that he was in a lot of trouble, Lawler didn’t look to clinch, he didn’t try to change levels and go for the takedown and he didn’t try to utilize footwork to circle out of danger. He just stood there and took what Rory threw at him and hoped that his chin and toughness would carry him through. It worked for Robbie in that fight, but relying on your toughness is never a good strategy and a lot of other referees would have stopped that fight in the 3rd round.
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Carlos Condit trains at Jackson’s MMA, which is a camp that is famous for putting together rock solid gameplans that give their fighter’s the perfect strategy to defeat their opponent’s. Robbie Lawler does the same thing in every fight and there’s nothing that he could do in this matchup that we haven’t seen him do before. This makes it very easy for the team at Jackson’s to put together a gameplan that gives Carlos Condit the perfect strategy to beat Robbie Lawler.
Greg Jackson will know that Robbie Lawler’s strengths are in his high level boxing, his toughness and also his ability to deliver significant damage from the Southpaw stance. Lawler is a very difficult opponent, but none of his strengths should be too difficult for Carlos Condit to overcome, because Condit has great striking, he’s also very tough and his experience of competing in Championship fights should help him stick to the gameplan and not get sucked into a war. Condit and the team at Jackson’s MMA will know that Lawler only becomes dangerous when you stand in front of him and I expect Condit to utilize a gameplan that see’s him use footwork to stay all the way in or all the way out of Lawler’s striking range.
Carlos Condit has struggled throughout his career against fighters who try to take him down, but he has looked incredible against opponents who try to stand and strike with him. Condit is a BEAST when he doesn’t have to worry about being taken down, which is good news for him in this match up because Robbie Lawler hardly ever tries to take his opponent’s down. This means that Condit can focus on his striking for the first time in a long time, because 4 out of his last 5 opponent’s have tried to take him down and neutralize his striking. When Condit doesn’t have to worry about defending takedowns, he is a very dangerous fighter and I believe he’s going to look outstanding against Robbie Lawler who has also struggled against wrestlers in the past and will want to keep this fight standing.
Carlos Condit is an experienced fighter who is always moving around and looking to change levels. He is not singular in his approach and his kicks are fast, accurate and unorthodox. Condit is one of the few fighters who can claim to have rocked GSP and we have seen throughout Lawler’s career that he is very susceptible to getting hit with head kicks. I believe that Condit’s mobility, speed and his ability to throw a much wider range of strikes will be the difference in this match up. Greg Jackson and Carlos Condit should come into this fight with the perfect gameplan to beat Robbie Lawler and I don’t think that Lawler has the ability to make adjustments when he is losing a fight. I’m not going to say that this is a bad matchup for Lawler, but I think Condit has far more ways to win and I think that this makes him a good bet in this fight.
Click here to read more of my betting tips, picks and predictions for UFC 195 – Carlos Condit vs Robbie Lawler.
MY FIRST BETTING TIP: 2 Units [2% of your bankroll] on Carlos Condit to win at odds of 2.10 | +110 | 11/10
**PLEASE NOTE** – This betting tip was first posted in the Early Bird Betting Tips area of our website on the 21st of December. The odds published in this article may have significantly changed since then. Our VIP Members get our betting picks early, which enables them to place their bets at the best possible odds…